Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: 7/6/08 - 7/13/08

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    Saturday, July 12, 2008

    Thinking out loud

    Chitral at the blue mark.

    There is alot going on behind the scenes according to OSINT.


    George has a chance to tie this up before he leaves office.
    Take out OBL and Iran nukes at the same time.

    The Yanks Are Coming

    That is the premise.

    "The Chitral Valley is now opening it's first all-weather road to the outside.
    We are building up significant troop strength and heavy material on the border.
    The Paki's are withdrawing now.

    Chitral is a city in Pakistan with limited access, true.

    However, Chitral is also a region. A large area of Pakistan where OBL has lived in the past.

    The Chitral region covers the entire area directly beside the Corridor of Waqan, Nuristan, Uzbekistan, Tajkistan, & China. It can be considered the foothills of K2.

    This is exactly where intelligence reports, & you have stated he may be.

    Rumors for several years that a "jin" (protective hex) was in place in the Nuristan area where Kunar and Badakshan come together.
    Sounds goofy, but many Muslims are deeply superstitious. If it is known that jinnis (spirits) protect a place, only an elite few can enter and absolute secrecy can be managed.

    The recent "K2" location makes little sense, no back door. Too much pressure and he will bail out to Uzbekistan, traveling the corridor of Wahkan now that the snows have melted enough for movement.

    This just in: Authorities in three West European countries have arrested ten individuals whom they believe to have links to Islamic Extremist factions in Uzbekistan. It is reported that those arrested were obtaining funding for a militant group within Uzbekistan that allegedly has ties with al-Qaida.

    Yuldeshev and his Uzbeks are going to be trouble, many are Russian Army trained, very disciplined and they play rough. Rumors are that the Chinese are terrified of them regarding the Olympics, talk of a dirty bomb there. The Uzbeks would do it and they have all the access they need with the Tibetans. ( China, Russia and India are in on this too. G )

    The Corridor of Waqan, Balochistan, Nuristan, Uzbekistan, all possible and likely.

    Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, 61, Pakhtun of the Kharoti tribe is the only warlord in the theater that could keep bin Laden hidden. He is the key to finding UBL.

    "For the last month, we have been distributing matchbooks in Peshawar, Pakistan with UBL's picture and a reward and phone numbers."

    The matchbooks have been distributed since 2000.

    In 2005 we added television commercials in Pakistan." ( PAYING OFF, G )

    From Company "C"'s "Discussion: RUMINT".
    Sources include: Terintel, Anonymous, gandalftb, others and me.



    By Syed Saleem Shahzad

    Saturday, 12 July 2008.
    Pakistan's planners now see their objective as isolating radicals within the Taliban and cultivating tribal, rustic, even simplistic, "Taliban boys" - just as they did in the mid-1990s in the leadup to the Taliban taking control of the country in 1996. It is envisaged that this new "acceptable" tribal-inspired Taliban leadership will displace Taliban and al-Qaeda radicalism.

    This process has already begun in
    Pakistan's tribal areas.

    A leading Pakistani Taliban leader, Haji Nazeer from
    South Waziristan, who runs the largest Pakistani Taliban network against coalition troops in Afghanistan, recently convened a large meeting at which it was resolved to once again drive out radical Uzbeks from South Waziristan. This happened once before, early last year.

    In particular, Nazeer will take action against the Uzbeks' main backer, Pakistani Taliban hardliner Baitullah Mehsud, if he tries to intervene. Nazeer openly shows his loyalty towards the Pakistani security forces and has reached out to other powerful Pakistani Taliban leaders, including Moulvi Faqir from Bajaur Agency, Shah Khalid from Mohmand Agency and Haji Namdar in Khyber Agency. Nazeer also announced the appointment of the powerful commander of
    North Waziristan, Hafiz Gul Bahadur, as the head of the Pakistani Taliban for all Pakistan.

    The bulk of the Pakistani Taliban has always been pro-Pakistan and opposed to radical forces like Baitullah Mehsud and his foreign allies, but this is the first time they have set up a formal organization and appointed an amir (chief) as a direct challenge to the radicals.


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    Paki's reach into Europe

    Germany and Jihad

    By Jeffrey Imm

    With the World Cup opening June 9 in Munich, Germany is having an increasing problem with the growth of radical Islamism. German Federal Prosecutor Kay Nehm has recently stated that the country is sitting on a "powder keg" of radical Islamist migrants who could be plotting an terror attack in Germany. Today - Der Spiegel has reported on a foiled suicide bomb plot by three German women. German intelligence sources prevented three German Muslim women from traveling to Iraq; one of the German women planned to blow herself up with her child in Iraq. At least one of the women was a convert to Islam and sources state that all the German women were sympathizers of Ansar al Islam. Ansar al Islam has a history of smuggling suicide bombers from Germany to Iraq. Germany's domestic security agency, the Verfassungsschutz, has also reported recent growth of Islamists in Germany - 32,100 as of 2005, including representation in Hamas, Hezbollah, Muslim Brotherhood, Milli Gorus (Turkish group). Islamists are also angry over the recent death of Amir Cheema, a Pakistani who died in Berlin, while in custody as a suspect in a plot to kill Die Welt's editor-in-chief over publication of Muhammed cartoons. Moreover, the goals of radical Islamism's growing ranks are supported by a growing Neo-Nazism which plans to use the World Cup event to defend Iran's Holocaust Denial and denying Israel's right to exist. Germany is anxious to avoid a repeat of the 1972 Munich Olympics where 11 Israeli athletes were killed by a Palestinian terror group. Some experts believe that Germany is not sufficiently prepared in terms of security for the World Cup and that security plans are relying too much on emergency forces.

    May 30, 2006 08:07 PM


    The NEFA Foundation has released a new report I have written titled “Jihad Networks in Pakistan and Their Influence in Europe.” The paper is based upon a presentation I gave on July 10 before the III International Course on “Jihad Terrorism: Contingency Plans and Response”, organized by the Pablo Olavide University and the Granada University in Spain. It assesses the proliferation of jihad training camps in Pakistan—particularly in Waziristan and the region bordering Pakistani-controlled Kashmir—and the subsequent impact that those training camps have had on the proliferation of terrorist networks in Western Europe.

    The report can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

    July 11, 2008 11:07 AM Link


    "More than 100 terror camps" in operation in northwestern Pakistan
    July 11, 2008 9:05 AM ET
    By Bill Roggio

    Al Qaeda and the Taliban extend their power in the Northwest Frontier Province. A cross-border attack into Pakistan wounds 11, including 9 Pakistani soldiers.



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    Friday, July 11, 2008

    Speaking the Truth


    Appendix F: International Terrorist Incidents,...Image via Wikipedia
    India attacks Pak for trying to enter peace deal with Taliban

    Dharam Shourie
    United Nations, July 10 (PTI) Vowing to redouble its efforts to help Afghanistan as a response to the bombing of its embassy in Kabul, India has attacked Pakistan for trying to strike a deal with the local Taliban, saying such bargains" were undermining efforts to defeat terrorists in the war-ravaged country.

    "Those who perpetrated this act and those who train and protect them and enable them to commit horrific acts of violence are no better than the basest criminals," India's United Nations Ambassador Nirpuam Sen told the Security Council in a hard hitting address.

    India, he said, would not yield to those who commit these "barbaric acts" and to those responsible for "greater villainy of sheltering and enabling terrorists.

    Four Indians, including a brigadier-ranked defence attache and an IFS officer, were among 41 killed in the suicide terrorist bombing on Monday.

    "While mourning their loss, we believe we can best honour our fallen colleagues by redoubling our commitments to working with Afghanistan to secure stability and development of that country and consequently, in the region," Sen said.

    Events on the ground, Sen emphasised, make it clear that that any listing of challenges before the Afghan people must begin with security.

    "We cannot afford to slacken our resolve or our efforts in combating the forces of terrorism, extremism a crime wherever and in whatever forms these groups may take." It must be a collective effort, he said and in a veiled attack on Pakistan warned against sending mixed signals through "bargains for temporary a local peace while the rest of us contend with the consequences of such a deal." PTI



    The author is right Paki is enabling terrorism.



    US Moves Aircraft Carrier to Support Afghan Operation
    By VOA News
    08 July 2008

    The U.S. military has moved an aircraft carrier from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea to further support its operations in Afghanistan.

    Robert Gates, 26 Jun 2008
    Robert Gates
    U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said Tuesday the Acting Commander of U.S. Central Command, Lieutenant General Martin Dempsey, made the decision in terms of available assets and where they could be most useful.

    Gates said the move is part of the U.S. commitment to ensure that commanders have the resources available to be successful in Afghanistan over the long term.

    Also Tuesday, unnamed U.S. Navy officials said the shift away from Iraq comes after the number of foreign troop casualties in Afghanistan topped those in Iraq for two consecutive months.

    June was the deadliest month for foreign forces in Afghanistan since 2001, with at least 45 of them killed, compared with 31 in Iraq.

    Meanwhile, NATO says one of its soldiers was killed and four others wounded Tuesday when a roadside bomb struck a convoy in the eastern province of Kunar.

    Separately, in the central province of Ghazni, officials say at least two Afghan policemen were killed in fighting with Taliban insurgents. Five insurgents are believed to have died.

    Afghan and international forces frequently clash with militants loyal to the Taliban, an extremist Islamist group that ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001.


    Post by:
    Unread Jul 9th, 2008, 09:34 PM
    Cornered Tiger

    ....and more dead bodies for innocent families. More brain-washing in the name of 'jihad' - the most mis-used word in today's world after 'sorry'. May God give such twisted individuals some much-needed hidayat - Ameen.\07\10\story_10-7-2008_pg1_5

    ISLAMABAD: About 3,000 Islamist women gathered at the radical Lal Masjid in the capital on Wednesday and vowed to raise their children for jihad, days after a suicide bomber killed 19 people after a similar rally on July 6. Chanting slogans of "jihad is our way", burqa-clad women, some carrying babies, listened to fiery speeches from the daughter of the mosque's jailed cleric on the eve of the anniversary of a raid on the complex in which more than 100 people died. "Our mujahideen laid down their lives for the enforcement of the Islamic system in Pakistan. We are left behind to carry forward their mission," the daughter of cleric Abdul Aziz told the tightly guarded rally in the mosque compound. Several thousand men had attended a similar rally on Sunday to mark the anniversary of the commando raid that ended a weeklong siege that had begun when gunmen from the mosque clashed with police. Shortly after the Sunday rally ended, a suicide bomber attacked policemen who had been guarding the gathering killing 19 people, all but four of them policemen. But there was no trouble on Wednesday as the cleric's daughter, who did not identify herself, told the crowd to steel their families for jihad. "We should prepare our children and men for jihad," she said. The crowd responded with shrill chants of "We are ready" and "Al jihad". The women present demanded, amongst others, a court trial of President Pervez Musharraf, reconstruction of the Jamia Hafsa, reopening of the Jamia Fareedia, release of Lal Masjid cleric Abdul Aziz and an end to the military operation in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The organisers claimed around 5,000 women to have attended the five-hour conference but people present said the number did not exceed 3,000. The police had sealed off the area with barbed wire, roadblocks and pickets. Pedestrians had to go through several security checks to cross the area. reuters/jamila achakzai

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    Thursday, July 10, 2008

    DANCIN TIME, Gadahn captured, Z dead

    Adam Yahiye GadahnImage via Wikipedia


    Our secret sources which have proved reliable in the past
    confirms Gadahn is captured.
    Our previous post.
    Captured by CIA, NSA, DIA and ISI and Special forces in Paki
    Gadahn was indicted on three charges:

    18 USC, 2381 TREASON;

    The indictment was brought by the U.S. Federal Grand Jury, Central District, however, the Federal Court has yet to set up its electronic filing for the case (10/12/2006), presumably because the government has no one in custody as of yet.

    A grand jury returned the indictment against Adam Yehiye Gadahn, 28, a suspected al-Qaida operative sought by the FBI since 2004

    And being held over seas, Question of his rights as a non-citizen, he ripped up his passport in a video.
    Any defense attorney he got would say he did it under duress.
    The question becomes did he become a non-US citizen when he ripped up his passport?
    Did he loose all rights as a citizen?
    But being arrested as a terrorist and held by a different country, USA still has access and NO legal problems.
    CIA and FBI lined up tp question Mr. Gadahn

    I'd like a turn at questioning him, bonding with him, turning him.
    As he is not in American custody the host nation can do as it pretty much pleases with him.

    We have picked up noise and chatter about a repeating rumor that Big Z is dead, vaporized, no DNA to test.
    He has been quite for over a month.

    "The screw turns"

    UPDATE: Note the date on this story 7.10.08 we had this story posted 20 days before mainstream press. 8.1.08

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    "shadow facilitators,"

    Some Rays of Hope in Recent Operations

    By Douglas Farah

    I have been rightly described as extremely pessimistic about the way our intelligence and law enforcement communities-with the exception of isolated pockets-are facing (or not) the challenges I see as most pressing for the 21st century.

    These include the growing and spreading threat of non-state armed actors, the criminal-terrorist nexus, the spreading narco mini-states across Central and northern South America, and the world of shadow facilitators that tie disparate networks together.

    In my experience, most of the problems center on a lack of understanding of how the world really operates, and a distinct inability to see things beyond how we have experienced them for ourselves, meaning the world is often viewed as operating according to our cultural and political experience, rather than operating as it operates.

    But a string of recent successes (two by the Drug Enforcement Administration and one by the Colombian army with U.S. military support) show rays of hope. Some of the risk-aversion is being overcome, creative thinking is being more welcomed and human intelligence is again the key.

    The cases are the arrest of Viktor Bout; the successful arrest and extradition of Monzar al Kassar; and the freeing of the FARC hostages.

    What these cases have in common is the creativity with which the operations were conceived, the flexibility in the implementation of them, the correct identification of high-value targets, and the extensive use of human intelligence to develop the operations and carry them out successfully. My full blog is here.......

    the DEA targeted what they call "shadow facilitators," a concept and strategy that acknowledges the growing relationship between terrorist and criminal organizations.

    Both of these groups need to rely on the same cadre of document forgerers, money launderers and movers, weapons traffickers etc. to stay in business. They overlap in the world of the facilitators like al-Kassar and Bout, which is why taking out those pieces of the enterprise hurts more than one organization in a significant way.


    Excellent points, but "they" operate on the Internet.
    The Internet the most feared domain by the USA military and Intelligence Agencys.

    • How a Classic Man-in-the-Middle Attack Saved Colombian Hostages
      InfoSec News: How a Classic Man-in-the-Middle Attack Saved Colombian Hostages:
      By Bruce Schneier Security Matters July 9, 2008
      Last week's dramatic rescue of 15 hostages held by the gue


    Winning the War of Ideas

    By Matthew Levitt

    Engagement in the battle of ideas and strategic communication has long been the missing ingredient in the government-wide effort to combat terrorism. Now, with a restructured public diplomacy bureaucracy at the State Department and elsewhere in the interagency process, engaging foreign publics has formally and strategically become part of the toolkit to combat radical extremist ideologies. Today, in his first major public address in his new position in Washington, Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs James Glassman addressed The Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Special Policy Forum on "Winning the War of Ideas." The prepared text of his remarks is available here.

    July 8, 2008 02:54 PM Link


    Tie the State Dept efforts into the data from the Human Terrain loop.

    Where are the US Armys 30,000 bloggers.

    Missing weapon on the GWOT: SCE


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    Tuesday, July 08, 2008

    Human Tremain Paradigm

    BAGHDAD, IRAQ – FEBRUARY 28:  Rear Adm. Mark I...Image by Getty Images via DaylifeHuman Tremain Paradigm:

    My review is based on OSINT relative the the Army's HT effort.

    What I have been able to glean indicates the HT effort is based on the Company level.
    Which should be minimal staffing.

    But could be organized on a wiki to include Battlion level all the way up to Theater level, and
    provide a coordinated effort linked to all levels and a past history of paradigms, groups and people.

    The work product should include applied anthropology. and metrics.
    And demographics on the enemy.

    With this Wiki a new HT troops can check what was done in the past and with whom.
    Reporting from multiple levels and a consildated effort would be a great force multiplier.

    And linked into the Military Blogging efforts and the State departments new efforts in the Info war.

    For every heart and mind won, its one less enemy that has to be killed,
    A noble endeavor for any anthropologist.

    Internet Antropologist Think Tank


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    Pakis have to decide.

    INSIGHT: Be done with this confusion —Ejaz Haider

    If we are not prepared for the literalist exegesis that informs the millenarianism of the Taliban-Al Qaeda cadres then let us, for everyone's sake including our own, stop glorifying them

    The Lal Masjid phenomenon manifests the tension and the confusion of this nation as nothing does; and the confusion is confounded by the lies mouthed by all concerned, including the media.

    Let's begin with the bombing of the police contingent in the closing moments of the congregation commemorating the "shuhada" of Lal Masjid.

    If the people who were gathered at the mosque to venerate those who resisted the state and rebelled against it were and are right, then the man who blew himself up and killed the policemen and others should be hailed. He gave his life, just like the Lal Masjid rebels, for a higher cause, one, which, as the argument goes, even transcends the state.

    By the same logic, those who attacked the mosque were wrong. They represented a state whose writ is unacceptable and, were one to employ the currently reigning exegesis in some circles, which must be fought because it is a battle of Right against Wrong — the faithful against the infidel. The state is apostate.

    If, on the other hand, we think that the policemen met "shahadat" while performing their duty, the bombing was a dastardly act, the state is at war with some elements that want to subvert it from inside, then the Lal Masjid cannot be lionised — neither can those who died there fighting the state be considered heroes.

    These are two different narratives; they are in conflict. Both cannot be right. One of the two, most definitely, is wrong and misplaced.

    My intention here is not to judge either but simply to point to the absurdity of moving from one to the other as if they are compatible and part of a continuum.

    What makes it worse is that all of us are making this mistake, some unwittingly, but most deliberately and wittingly. Those who know what they are doing belong to the media and the political leadership. They are mixing up the categories deliberately.

    Let's consider the probity of allowing the Lal Masjid conference to be held. What was the conference about? It was about those who died fighting the state. The current government's act of allowing this conference to go ahead meant that it (the government) did not think that the act of commemorating those who fought the security forces and died in the mosque was wrong; corollary: those who died were right.

    But if Lal Masjid was right and so are those honouring the memory of its heroes, then the current government is wrong too — as much in the wrong and apostate as the one that ordered the raid on the mosque. In which case, the current government should either not have allowed this conference to be held or if, as it did, it should simply step down to make way for the ideology represented by Lal Masjid. It cannot do both things.

    The speeches at the conference, especially after the first session, called for acts and actions that go against the grain of state's policies — for instance, in the tribal areas or in relation to Afghanistan. This means that the congregants actually believed in attacking the writ of the state and called upon all those sympathetic to their cause to do so. The bombing that happened, as it would have, was in keeping with the ideology propounded by the mosque.

    Let it also be noted that the mosque has had links with sectarian organisations, the Taliban and Al Qaeda (the presence of cadres of banned sectarian organisations at the conference has been widely reported). It is no coincidence that within 24 hours of the raid on Lal Masjid, Ayman Al Zawahiri called upon the faithful to avenge the action; neither is it a coincidence that within 24 hours of Mr Zawahiri's warning, security personnel at different points in the NWFP were hit with a spate of suicide bombings spread over almost a week.

    So, what was the government thinking when it allowed the conference to be held and also allowed speakers to make speeches that go against the state's writ? How will these elements challenge the state's writ if not by attacking security forces and personnel who represent the state's coercive arm?

    The point is simple but I will reiterate it: either the state, as constituted currently, is wrong or the people challenging it are a menace.

    The gem delivered by Rehman Malik, who advises the prime minister on internal security, is especially noteworthy for its idiocy. Bragging about security measures he asked the media what might have happened if the bomber had blown himself up among the congregants. Is Mr Malik for real? Does he really think the bomber would have blown himself up among his ideological kin and killed them?

    The bomber attacked those he wanted to kill; he was avenging the raid. And, as always with such attacks, he proved deadly. I won't be surprised if investigations reveal that he peeled off from the congregants to do his work rather than approaching the policemen from outside.

    Now, to the media. Again, either the policemen are martyrs, having been killed in the line of duty or those who died in the mosque last year and also the man who blew himself up to kill the policemen. The media (reporters and anchors) cannot move between the two narratives as if they are mutually inclusive. If it was a "shuhada" conference then the man who killed the policemen was righteous and the policemen were representing the apostate state.

    Let us decide, once and for all, what we stand for. If the nation really feels that Lal Masjid was right then damn the political parties, the current social contract and the United Nations. Let us lap up the ideology represented by Lal Masjid, sectarian organisations, the Taliban and Al Qaeda — yes, because they are all part of the same string.

    If the nation is prepared to do that, nay spoiling to do so, let us chalk a new social contract, pray for the souls of all the suicide bombers, hail those who are fighting the security forces in FATA and the infidels in Afghanistan and be done with the state as it is configured today. The policemen, of course, had died in the wrong and in vain — just like every single security person who has fallen in this conflict has got killed in the wrong cause, defending an apostate state.

    Conversely, if we are not prepared for the literalist exegesis that informs the millenarianism of the Taliban-Al Qaeda cadres, let us, for everyone's sake including our own, stop glorifying them. Let us focus on the soldiers that have fallen rather than going on about the plight of the innocent "shuhada" of Lal Masjid.

    We must also then realise that we are under threat; that these people are as much against our way of life as they are against the infidels west of Durand Line.

    In which case, need it be said again that the government should not have allowed the crowd sympathetic to Lal Masjid to congregate in Islamabad, the capital city? Because the congregants' narrative goes against everything the state and, by extension, this society stands for.

    Let us decide and be done with this confusion, deliberate or unwitting.



    Well put, decide.



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    Missing weapons in the GWOT

    NEFA's most recent White paper,
    By Claudio Franco.
    The Evolution of the Taliban in Pakistan during the February-May 2008 Period: The Peace Accord Era

    confirms our Paradigm Intel in our earlier posts.

    $10 billion UDS Great Game.

    Paki and the Great Game.

    The paper also points to the need of a Cultural matrix, outlining groups affiliations, political, religious, military, tribal and based on actions.
    This would provide the crucial data for a "Social Change Engine" SCE.

    We have excerpted the critical paradigms from the paper.

    "There are several elements confirming Islamabad's will to replicate the 1980s scenario in
    terms of administering an Islamist guerrilla force focused on Afghanistan. If successful,
    Islamabad would have managed, in the span of five years, to turn a potentially lethal phenomenon into a proxy army whose primary raisons d'etre are attacking and destabilizing Afghanistan, while maintaining the level of security threat needed in order to perpetuate western funding and military aid.".......

    "It does make sense that the Pakistanis might be working on the possibility of a long-
    standing truce at home, coupled with a non-interference clause concerning the group's
    activities in Afghanistan. This is not only a credible scenario, but a re-enactment of the
    old PPP policy of "anything goes across the border if Pakistan is left in peace".".......

    In the words of Maulvi Omar, TTP deputy in Bajaur and prominent TTP spokesperson, al-
    Qaida and the TTP/Taliban are two faces of the same coin; the former is fighting "infidels"
    on the international front, while the latter is devoted to Jihad within the Pak-Afghan
    region. The integration of the two entities started with the arrival of Usama bin Laden in
    Kandahar in 1996 as an honored guest of the Taliban leadership......

    The Taliban insurgency cannot be regarded exclusively as a military phenomenon, as the
    problem is rooted in the peculiar fabric of segments of Pakistani society, a context where
    a Muslim Brotherhood-type Islamization process coexists with the instinctively
    conservative stances of tribal Islamism, thus producing ideal conditions for Islamist
    militancy to exist and proliferate. Pakistan is a complex country and by no means can be
    described as an Islamist society, but Western-style secularism is limited to the urban areas,
    and the potential recruiting basin for Islamists is exceptionally vast. Militancy has become
    a national problem in the span of five years, and today the Taliban can rely on a network
    spanning two countries and two worlds; from the metropolitan setting of Karachi to the
    dust and mud-brick houses of North Waziristan, the Taliban are operating and raising
    funds among the business community and the middle classes. The insurgents are not
    perceived as criminals or terrorists, notwithstanding years of propaganda funded mostly
    with Western resources, but as underdogs fighting for a just cause. They are perfect
    material for zakat (Muslim charitable tithe) donations, in other words, and are certainly
    regarded as legitimate political actors, if not as "Muslim heroes". It is worth pointing out
    that we are not describing a world of undercover fundraising and murky donors, but of
    perfectly legitimate businessmen who may, at times, donate to charities that are loosely
    connected to the movement. By and large, the insurgency is not perceived as damaging, and the Taliban's well-tested formula of law, order, and pious demeanor is working wonders in remote areas like Swat, Bajaur, and Waziristan, where secular politics is perceived as a synonym of "corruption" and religious insurgencies are a cyclic occurrence. Western policy-makers should remember that religious insurgencies along the border have been a regular occurrence when inspired by a foreign enemy....."

    Mangal Bagh'S position is extremely similar to what the radical Islamists preach. Every pious Muslim [benefited from Bhutto's death]. Because our Prophet (peace be upon him) said that those under the rule of a woman would better be underneath the earth than above it. Therefore, I believe that her death was a blessing for all Muslims, who were saved from being under
    the rule of a woman.".....


    The OSINT is available for an effective SCE, the motivations are understood, and the players are known. To this point psyops and the "Info War" actions have been piece meal, and dis-jointed.

    There are handles and leverages, a matrix and SCE will disclose fulcrums to move the antagonists. and give the protagonists direction and insight and paradigms that work.

    Missing weapon on GWOT, the SCE.

    Worst case: If we do nothing, or continue with current paradigm; Taliban establishes a place in the Paki Government, and gains control.

    Internet Anthropologist Think Tank.


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    Post-9/11 Dragnet Turns Up Surprises
    Biometrics Link Foreign Detainees To Arrests in U.S.

    FBI agent Paul Shannon led a team sent to Afghanistan in 2001 to fingerprint and interview foreign fighters for a database of known or suspected terrorists. Here, he takes Saddam Hussein's prints after his capture in 2003.
    FBI agent Paul Shannon led a team sent to Afghanistan in 2001 to fingerprint and interview foreign fighters for a database of known or suspected terrorists. Here, he takes Saddam Hussein's prints after his capture in 2003.

    By Ellen Nakashima
    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Sunday, July 6, 2008; Page A01

    In the six-and-a-half years that the U.S. government has been fingerprinting insurgents, detainees and ordinary people in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Horn of Africa, hundreds have turned out to share an unexpected background, FBI and military officials said. They have criminal arrest records in the United States.

    There was the suspected militant fleeing Somalia who had been arrested on a drug charge in New Jersey. And the man stopped at a checkpoint in Tikrit who claimed to be a dirt farmer but had 11 felony charges in the United States, including assault with a deadly weapon



    Assuming this is a good sample, the story belies a significant missed paradigm.
    If one percent had USA criminal records, the rate for this group who are visitors to the USA: without criminal records would be higher.

    Of course as this is a Criminal records check, we can't validate my hypothesis with this study.

    A very important question the study leaves un answered is do these stats hold for insurgent groups alone, with out the civilian population included in the sample?

    The paradigm intel suggests a staggering volume of culturalized insurgents available for cells.



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    Monday, July 07, 2008

    Paki the NEW Iraq?

    :en:Pakistani President :en:Pervez MusharrafImage via WikipediaSituation in Pakistan spinning out of control: Stratfor

    * Intelligence service claims Musharraf's regime has been replaced by a civil-military hybrid
    * Country is being torn apart by extremism

    By Khalid Hasan

    WASHINGTON: The use of suicide bombings has allowed religiously radical forces to reach beyond their NWFP strongholds and strike with impunity at the core of Pakistan, including urban centres, and as it is, things are spinning out of control, according to a commentary released on Monday by Stratfor.

    The Texas-based news intelligence service notes that along with the rapidly deteriorating security situation, political instability has only grown after the elections, which failed to quell the political unrest that severely weakened not only President Pervez Musharraf's hold on power but also that of the army.

    Civil-military hybrid: "Musharraf's regime has been replaced by a civil-military hybrid which lacks the willingness and/or the ability to take on the threat posed by extremism and militancy. The fact is that the civilian government and the country's military establishment appear to be losing control of the situation," the analysis maintains.



    Will the Paki's allow Pakistan to deteroriate into an Iraq, circa 2004?
    I don't expect the new Paki government to react or ask for help untill
    they experience sever pain, and their pain threshold is higher than I expected.


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    Sunday, July 06, 2008

    Admiral Mike Mullen's alternative, NUCLEAR IRAN

    Britain must act to prevent an attack on Iran

    By Anatol Lieven

    Published: July 6 2008 18:23 | Last updated: July 6 2008 18:23

    All the evidence suggests that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites would be a disaster for the greater Middle East, for the world economy and for western security. It would not even benefit Israel, which is adequately protected by its own nuclear deterrent. On the contrary, by creating new links between Sunni and Shia extremism, it would worsen Israel’s long-term chances of survival. Finally, as last week’s remarks by Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, indicated, an attack is strongly opposed by the US military. They would bear the first brunt of Iranian reprisals, since the US would rightly be held jointly responsible by Iran, and US soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan are far more open to Iranian-sponsored attack than is Israel itself.

    The British government can stop this nonsense. All that it needs to do is make clear to the US administration, initially in private but in public if necessary, that the consequence of an attack would be complete British military withdrawal, not only from Iraq but from Afghanistan as well.



    What is Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, alternative to attacking Iran, A NUCLEAR ARMED IRAN


    I'd like to see his paradigm ?


    One admin, one in Europe, and 4 agents.

    Heavy cyber weapons team on alert, tracking team armed.


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    Iran WAR prep

    Iran, Syria sign secret new intelligence cooperation accord

    DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

    July 6, 2008, 1:20 PM (GMT+02:00)

    Iranian intelligence insignia

    Iranian intelligence insignia

    Under the intelligence cooperation agreement Iran and Syria signed secretly in Tehran on June 27, thousands of Syrian intelligence and police officers will receive special training in Iran, DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report.

    The accord they concluded is a crucial element in the deepening strategic relationship between Tehran and Damascus. It belies the contention by French president Nicolas Sarkozy and prime minister Ehud Olmert, accepted also by Washington, that the Syrian regime is about to desert its close alliance with Tehran and embrace the West.

    Iran's chief of staff expands threat of Strait of Hormuz closure

    DEBKAfile Special Report

    July 5, 2008, 1:14 PM (GMT+02:00)

    Iran's chief of staff Maj. Gen Hasan Firuzabadi

    Iran's chief of staff Maj. Gen Hasan Firuzabadi

    Chief of staff Maj. Gen. Hasan Firuzabadi said Saturday, July, 5, Iran’s strategy is to keep the Strait of Hormuz in “southern Iran” open, but “if the country’s interests are jeopardized in the region, we will not let any ship pass through.”

    DEBKAfile’s military sources report that this statement enlarges on earlier threats by adding Iran’s “strategic interests in the region,” namely Syria, Hizballah or Hamas. It is in keeping with Iran’s refusal to give up uranium enrichment in its reply to the six-power proposals for ending the nuclear standoff.


    U.S. Troops Dying on Afghan Border With ... IRAN?

    By James Gordon Meek

    Allied combat deaths in Afghanistan surpassed those in Iraq for a second straight month in June. Meanwhile, New Yorker reporter Sy Hersh writes that U.S. covert operators are infiltrating Iran.

    What do these two developments have in common? Maybe nothing. But as we report in Thursday’s New York Daily News, one new factor in the record high casualties of the ever-escalating Afghan war is that American troops are suddenly dying along the country’s border with Iran.

    At least 10 Americans have been killed in action since May 25 in Afghanistan’s Farah province, which lies on the Iranian border.

    It’s worth noting that Hersh’s story claims U.S. operatives are cultivating Sunni allies opposed to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who live in Iran’s Baluchestan province - which just happens to abut Afghanistan’s Farah province.

    According to Pentagon statements, a few of the casualties were killed during operations ostensibly in two eastern Farah districts: Gulistan and Bala Baluk, which are near Helmand province. Helmand has been the site of some of the war’s worst fighting, and U.S. and NATO commanders say they have squeezed some Taliban out of Helmand and into Farah.

    Much more: July 3, 2008 05:34 PM Link


    Iran's Secret WAR plans.



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