Human Tremain Paradigm

Image by Getty Images via DaylifeHuman Tremain Paradigm:

My review is based on OSINT relative the the Army's HT effort.

What I have been able to glean indicates the HT effort is based on the Company level.
Which should be minimal staffing.

But could be organized on a wiki to include Battlion level all the way up to Theater level, and
provide a coordinated effort linked to all levels and a past history of paradigms, groups and people.

The work product should include applied anthropology. and metrics.
And demographics on the enemy.

With this Wiki a new HT troops can check what was done in the past and with whom.
Reporting from multiple levels and a consildated effort would be a great force multiplier.

And linked into the Military Blogging efforts and the State departments new efforts in the Info war.

For every heart and mind won, its one less enemy that has to be killed,
A noble endeavor for any anthropologist.

Gerald
Internet Antropologist Think Tank

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Pakti no OSINT

ISLAMABAD (Thomson Financial) - Pakistan's interior ministry said Friday it was 'unaware' of Al-Qaeda claiming a link to Benazir Bhutto's killing but said 'extremist elements' behind a wave of attacks this year could be responsible.

afp/ms

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=2545176

http://tinyurl.com/yqoqzu

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Patki has no OSINT Intelligence .

( Pakti Prez wanted to talk to one of the Taliban leaders, said they couldn't find a connection. The Terrorist cell phone was listed on the terrorists web site, NO osint ability. )


Gerald

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OSINT, New value.

( gOOGLE blog is messing up formating, in compose mode this appears as normal paragraphs, sorry G }
One result of this revolutionary change has been a newfound willingness on the
part of the U.S. Intelligence Community to reexamine the extent to which it relies —
or has failed to rely — upon open source information, which some have argued has
been relegated to a “second class” status by many intelligence professionals who
continue to value secret information above all else. As part of this reexamination, the
Intelligence Community appears to be reassessing a number of open source issues,
including the relative value of open source information compared to that of secret
information; the impact and importance of the growing volumes of information
unlocked by easy access to the Internet; the dampening effect that certain Community
security practices may have had and may continue to be having on the use of open
sources; the state of development of analytic tools necessary to effectively and
efficiently collect, sift, analyze, and disseminate a vast volume of publicly available
information when analysts are expected to also analyze increasingly large amounts
of classified information; and, training issues relating to open source technology and
techniques.
If the global information revolution has sparked debate within the Intelligence
Community over the value of open source information, the ongoing jihadist terrorist
threat has sharpened its focus. In underscoring the strategic and tactical importance
of open source information generally, and the role of the Internet specifically, one
senior policymaker recently described the Internet as being America’s new open
source battlefield.

Ultimately, these observers suggest, the United States must develop the capability to understand and influence foreign populations — “not in their council of states but in their villages and slums” — if it is to effectively counter the threat posed by jihadists. In such circumstances, it is argued, the information that should matter most to policymakers can be derived from open sources.

The debate over the relative value of open source information, compared to that
of classified data, is occurring at a time when the global information environment is
viewed by some as having reached a “post-modern” stage.3 In such an environment,
secret information may be less important than the combination of open source
information, information sharing, computer networking, and an ability to sift and
analyze a dizzying volume of open source information. Indeed, one former senior
intelligence officer suggested that whereas the 20th century was the century of
secrets, the 21st century may well prove to be the century of global information. If the
Intelligence Community as a whole accepts and understands this change, according
to some observers, it may gain an edge in confronting current threats, particularly
those posed by terrorism.

Intelligence professionals generally agree that open source information is useful
and that such information should be collected and analyzed, just as is data derived
from classified sources. They disagree, however, over its value relative to that of
clandestinely-collected secret information, and thus the amount of time, attention,
and resources that should be devoted to its collection and analysis remains in dispute.
For a brief case study of open source intelligence, see Appendix.

There generally are three different prevailing views regarding the of relative
value of open source information. The first holds that policymakers simply derive
less value from such information than from clandestinely-collected secrets. While
open source information can complement, supplement and provide context for
classified data, such information, it is suggested, rarely provides insight into an adversary’s plans and intentions. ( This would suggest they are not employing Paradigm Intel at all? Gerald )Policymakers tend to view such information as being critically important to policy deliberations, and attach to it the highest value.
For that type of insight, it is argued, the Intelligence Community must discover and
collect secrets. It therefore is entirely appropriate that the Community target the
preponderance of its resources to that end. As the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) reportedly stated in 2005, “I only have money to pay for secrets.”..................................................(Bad news for USA.G)

The second view asserts that open source information should be viewed not only
as an important contextual supplement to classified data, but also as a potential
source of valuable intelligence, in and of itself. Proponents of this view tend to cite
the as-Sahab Institute, al-Qaida’s sophisticated Internet-based messaging and
propaganda multimedia production facility, as an example of why open source
collection and analysis is so important in today’s technology-driven and globalized
world.5 Others cite al-Qaida’s ability to use virtual space to recruit, proselytize, plot,
and plan with impunity.6 According to one observer, “al-Qaida is right on the cutting
edge of the adoption of new technologies. They grab hold of the new stuff as soon
as it becomes available and start using it.”7 Another commentator suggested that
gaining an understanding of the inner workings of the as-Sahab Institute may provide as an effective way as any “to get close to bin Laden and Zawahiri.”8 According to one former senior intelligence who believes that the Intelligence Community continues to undervalue open source information, “[Open source information] is no longer the icing on the cake, it is the cake itself.”

Proponents of the third view adopt a “middle-ground” position, arguing that
open source information probably will never provide the “smoking gun” about some
issue or threat, but that it can be instrumental in helping analysts to better focus or
“drive” clandestine collection activities by first identifying what is truly secret. Open
sources therefore should be viewed as an analyst’s “source of first resort.” Although
these adherents tend to champion the relative value of open sources, their supports
appears to be measured. While generally believing that the Intelligence Community
should devote additional resources to collecting and analyzing open source
information, they appear wary of over-selling its value. “We don’t have the
confidence yet,” according to one senior intelligence officer, in explaining such
wariness.
SOURCE:

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We view as clandestine info and OSINT a screw drivers, one flat head and the other philips. It is just a question of what you need.

And we just heard that the CIA doesn't use philips screwdrivers?

The value we see to our OSINT OPs is that of up-to-date info, bots feed you what your interested in, in real time.
AND YOU CAN PULL DATA/INFO FROM A CLOSED CELL WITH OSINT, PARADIGM INTEL.

Gerald
Anthropologist

Islamist Internet Forums assist in the terrorist attacks:

An analysis of the postings on Islamist forums reveals that Islamists monitor the Western media for information that has immediate operational implications for the jihad fighters on the battlefield, namely, information that can increase their effectiveness or can help them to identify potential targets and threats. The following are examples of postings alerting the mujahideen to Western news reports of this sort.

Battle Field OSINT:
A message titled "Attention Anyone Who Carries a Sniper Rifle," posted November 3, 2006 on the forum www.mohajroon.com/vb, called attention to a Spiegel TV show which discussed, among other things, a new acoustic device of American manufacture intended for use against snipers in Iraq.(2) The message explained that the device "includes several microphones that allow the soldiers in the Hummer to determine the location from which a shot was fired... [and thus to pinpoint] the mujahid's position." In response to the message, a forum participant advised the mujahideen to "use silencers, or to take advantage of some background noise [by] firing the shot when the noise occurs and thus camouflaging its sound."(3)

On April 4, 2007 a member of the Islamist forum www.al-hesbah.org described an Internet TV broadcast in which U.S. soldiers recounted their experiences in Iraq. One of the soldiers, said the message, "told of an [incident] in which a tank convoy discovered an ambush [laid by mujahideen]... American tanks carry a set of rockets which can be controlled from inside the tank using miniature cameras [mounted on] the rockets themselves. These cameras provide the soldiers inside the tank with a view of the outside... The soldier [on the program] said that, [during a patrol in Iraq], he had spied two people hiding behind low barrier and attempting to fire a rocket, but that he had managed to fire... first. His report was accompanied by... sketches indicating the [exact] angle from which he saw the two mujahideen who were lying in wait for him." The message went on to provide analysis and advice: "The barrier behind which the two [mujahideen] hid seemed to be slightly less than one meter tall, which would have been sufficient to hide a person from [an observer] at eye level. However, since the cameras... [mounted] on the tank are higher than that, they enabled [the soldiers] to see the two people... [Hence, mujahideen] should make sure that their cover... is sufficiently tall to conceal them from those cameras... [When they select a location for an ambush], one of them [should] stand on a truck or on the roof of a car in order to verify that the cover is tall enough..."(4)

OSINT INTEL:
The mujahideen give high priority to reports on collaboration between U.S. counter-terrorism agencies and Arab governments. For example, a May 11, 2007 posting on http://al-boraq.com reported, citing a Washington Examiner article, that a group of U.S. Marines and intelligence experts had been dispatched to Algeria to help the local authorities fight terrorism. The message also stressed that the Pentagon has decided to allocate more funds in 2008 for the training special forces that will be sent to help fight terrorism in North Africa, West Africa and the Sahara regions.(7)

Assessing the Immediate Impact of an Ultimatum: The Case of the GIMF's Ultimatum to Germany and Austria

PSY OPS:

On March 11, 2007 the Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF) issued an ultimatum to Germany and Austria to withdraw their troops from Afghanistan, threatening that failure to do so will expose them to attacks by the mujahideen.(8) After the publication of this ultimatum, Islamists monitored the German and Austrian media for indications of its impact. A message posted on the Islamist forum www.al-mohajroon.com on March 12, 2007, one day after the issuing of the ultimatum, presented the following statements by the spokesman of the German Chancellor, cited from the German website www.netzeitung.de: "The German government takes such threats seriously... [Chancellor] Angela Merkel has established a hotline to the German security agencies to discuss possible attacks..." The posting also cited the Austrian Interior Minister, who said, according to the online newspaper http://derstandard.at, that "Austria will not bow down in the face of these terrorist groups which threaten to attack [it]..."(9)

A few days later, Islamists discerned signs that German public opinion may be caving to the ultimatum. On March 22, a posting titled "Following the GIMF message... Most Germans Demand the Withdrawal of Their Troops from Afghanistan" appeared on www.al-hesbah.org .(10) The message presented the results of a March 17, 2007 poll conducted by www.spiegel.de, which found that 57% of the German people favor the withdrawal of German troops from Afghanistan.(11)

Gauging the Effect of the Iraq War on U.S. Officials and the American Public

PROPAGANDA:

Aside from assessing the impact of isolated events like the GIMF ultimatum, Islamists have been following Western media to see how the daily clashes with the mujahideen in Iraq and elsewhere affect U.S. politics and public opinion. Below are two examples:

On March 11, 2007, the forum www.al-mohajroon.com posted a message titled "Poll: Americans Confirm Their Troops' Defeat in Iraq."(12) The message cited a Zogby poll in which over 50% of participants said that U.S. troops had failed in both Iraq and Afghanistan. The message stated that "the poll was conducted in the shadow of the continuing collapse of the American occupier's army, [which is yielding to] the surge of the Islamic resistance operations in these two countries."

A March 28, 2007 posting on the www.al-mohajroon.com forum emphasized that the U.S. House of Representatives had refused to approve the war funding bill without a timetable for U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq.(13) The message ended with the following call to the mujahideen: "Make [your] attacks on them more intensive in the months before their withdrawal... They have not [yet] received [a big enough] part of the punishment they deserve for the crime they committed against the umma's rights... Let history record that an army entered [Iraq] but did not [manage to] leave."

In contrast, an April 27, 2007 posting cited the a report from the U.S. military daily Stars and Stripes (http://www.estripes.com), that U.S. troops currently training in Morocco are expected to be sent to Iraq in 2008. The posting stated, "This is indisputable proof that American occupying forces are determined to stay in Iraq for a long time, despite the rising... opposition [in the U.S.] to their lingering [in that country], and [despite] the demand to set a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq." (14)

Gauging the Effect of the War on U.S. and British Troops

AID AND COMFORT, MORAL SUPPORT:

Any report reflecting the direct impact of the war in Iraq on the Coalition troops is immediately posted and receives much attention on Islamist forums. A prominent example is a report, attributed to CNN, posted on http://al-boraq.com. The report cited a medical study which found a persistent rise in the number of U.S. soldiers who commit suicide upon their return from Iraq. The posting also stressed the fact that, according to the study, more than 1,300 British soldiers who returned from Iraq between January 2003 and September 2005 suffered from depression and other psychological problems.(15)

Efforts to Shape Public Opinion in the West: Alerting Islamists to Western Public Opinion Polls and Urging Them to Participate in Them

Islamists also keep an eye on Western media with the aim of finding ways to directly affect and shape Western public opinion. A case in point is a February 4, 2006 posting which alerted forum members to an online poll, conducted by MSNBC, on the question "Are Muslims justified in staging worldwide protests over cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad?"(16) The posting called on Islamists to take the poll and vote yes, in order "to assist our brothers in Europe... by increasing their influence."(17) A message posted November 23, 2003 urged forum members to participate in another online poll by MSNBC, and to vote no on the question: "Would you support a legal ban on burqas and other face-covering clothing?"(18)


Citing Information Depicting Western Society as Corrupt

Islamists view their military conflict with the West and its Arab allies as a part of a much broader, eternal, struggle between "good" and "evil," or between "truth" and "falsehood" – a conflict that, they believe, will culminate in the Apocalypse. To reinforce the image of the West as "evil," Islamists comb the Western media for information reflecting its "immoral" and "wicked" nature.

Other world powers are not countering these efforts.
And they seem to be winning the INFO/PROPAGANDA EFFORT.

G

SOURCE memri: