Terrorist Names SEARCH:
Saturday, December 08, 2007
bAD tRIP of "Umar Rabie"
Insurgents Id him as Umar Rabie.
"Expedition of Umar Rabie"
Doing his last will.
Where he was Killed.
Start of beard.
They let him Carry a weapon but it wouldn't fire.
Suicide bomber looks at someone else's load
Damage to right side of brain.
Killed by Air strike. ( our translation may not be correct )
"bad trip of Umar Rabie"
ISI video to be released.
Members in the group said they cut the film to try and make it look like he died in a suicide bombing, and that he lived for about 2 hrs. It was his wish they make a propaganda video.
They talk alot.
One of our associates posts on Infovlad,
His name is Bill a he and we got to know a "Umar Rabie" on Infovlad, UR was always a hard core, and there was no expectation of influencing him.
He had announced his plans to go to Iran and fight against America.
This video falls with in that time line.
If the is the same or not isn't important as the process is the same for most volunteers.
If you join Infovlad you can search for his posts, and read his progress towards becoming
a suicide bomber.
While Bill disagreed with UR and what he had to say there grew a begrudging respect as you can see in the posts.
We are sorry to see UR die.
What we have here in effect is a college student whom volunteered to go to Iraq and fight based on his exposure to the Terrorists "Info war".
A college student goes to Iraq picks up an AK-47 and starts attacking trained experienced combat force; USA and dies.
USA want to go home, they do not want to kill these kids, when the killing stops USA can go home.
On Infovlad one can see a distinguished look at the inner workings and thinking of a recruited suicide bomber. Umar Rabie. ( edited 01.17.08 )
Video in transit
the suicide attacker was named by his original name Abu Jafaar, his jihadi name was umar rabie.
Save a college kid REWARD: report terrorist in Secret .
The Russians have a big interest in this story? any Ideas?
NBC New low for America
boycott GE General Electric, remember that when Christmas shopping.
Please post this video and include this code 1949661663ia in the post so we can track the boycott of NBC advertisers with an Google search for the code numbers.
THANK YOU TROOPS from USA
Wanted Terrorist Afghan & Pakti
said bahaji, bahdi, Zuhayr al-Maghrebi
DOB: 15 Jul 1975
Terrorist Affilation: al-Qaida (AQ)
Believed to be in: Pakistan
Speaks Fluent German; expert with computers;
member of Hamburg, Germany AQ cell which
assisted the hijackers involved in the
11 September 2001 attacks.
Our Tip line: phone USA (734) 619-0424
Email: Barb.andrews at Gmail.com
Human terrain system
H.t. System NPR
Using Anthropology, social science, in one case reduced violence by 60% in Afghan.
Now they need an "Info War" officer.
AAA guilt complex is preventing them from looking at areas (Human terrain system), AAA is not adhering to it's own standards of clarity or argument within its own ontology.
New 'Ossama' hunters.
Friday, December 07, 2007
New WEAPON: Flying TANK
Islamic Hackers, Hacker ALERT
New wana be Islamic Hackers:
"SecurityGhost" started the group:
Man power & Time allowing we have been notifying site owners with in 5 min. after defacement.
Mostly kiddy scripts.
They have been down loading scripts, one of ours.
They have defaced about a dozen web sites, no damage but they seem to be working towards more deviltry.
He works with and is training these guys:
:: GreetZ To:: EmBrAtOuR , Syntax(U)err , Weebi , VerY SecreT , ShoOtR , Mishal , Mr.Max , NouR iCE EmBrAtOuR, Syntax (U) err, Weebi, VerY SecreT, ShoOtR, Mishal, Mr.Max, NouR iCE مـــتــكـــي وراء الــشــمــس ,V4 Crackers , C0bra Hacker The strategy behind the sun, V4 Crackers, C0bra Hacker
He is associated with these IP's.:
Our info on him from our CI section :
Riyadh, Ar Riyad, Saudi Arabia ,
PC: ar-sa (Arabic/Saudi Arabia)
used by recipient: Moz/4.0 (MSIE 7.0; WinNT 5.1; .NET CLR 2.0.50727)
Language PC: en-us (English/United States)
UPDATE: They have seen this page visited on Dec 10 2007 4:56:53 pm, (National Engineering Services)....http://nesma.net.sa/...( We should have some names soon).
They is small stuff now but he will grow and branch out, and is training others.
Today they defaced: 12.07.07
UPDATE following site not hacked, it is just information of a hacked site, sorry.
Contact:Email: Barb.andrews at Gmail.com
Upon review we over classified this situation, Terrorist maybe to strong a word, as defacing and the text involved would only indicate sympathizers. G.
He's at it again, but alone now, he has defaced 2 more sites, actually only one, they were waiting and put the site right back up 3 min after it was defaced.
What needs to be done?
YOUR not listening...
How about some computer problems???
Current terrorist web sites.
http://www.iaisite.info/ The website of the terror organization The Islamic Army In Iraq (IAI) ISP: TR-DGN-20070704, Turkey (Data verified 12/04/07)
http://www.jaami.info/ The website of the Islamic Iraqi Resistance Front (JAMI) ISP: SCHLUND-CUSTOMERS, D-76135, Karlsruhe, Germany (Data verified 12/04/07)
http://www.sarayasaad.com/ The official website of the Iraqi terror organization Saraya Sa'd Ibn Abi Waqas ISP: Liquid Web Inc.; MI, USA (Data verified 12/04/07)
http://www.iraqipa.net/ Website supporting Jihad in Iraq ISP: SURFTOWNDK, Lyngby, Denmark (Data verified 12/04/07)
http://www.tawhed.ws/ The website of Sheikh Abu Muhammad Al-Maqdisi-known for his support for Jihad ISP: Interserver, Inc., New Jersey, USA (Data verified 12/04/07)
www.h-alali.net The website of Sheikh Hamed Al-Ali- known for his support for jihad ISP: FortressITX, Clinton, New Jersey, USA (Data verified 12/04/07)
www.alhesbah-network.com Al-Hesba- Islamist forum supporting Jihad ISP: NOC4Hosts Inc., Tampa, FL, USA (Data verified 12/04/07)
http://www.al-faloja.org/vb/ The Al-Faluja forum-Islamist forum supporting Jihad in Iraq. ISP: Liquid Web Inc.; MI, USA (Data verified 12/04/07)
http://elshouraa.com/vb The Islamic Al-Shurah-Islamist forum supporting Jihad. ISP: ZipServers, Inc., Oklahoma City, OK, USA (Data verified 12/04/07)AND *SoftLayer Technologies, Inc. Dallas, TX (Data verified 12/04/07)
http://ek-ls.org/forum/ Al-Ikhlas Al-Islamiyya- Islamist forum supporting Jihad ISP: NOC4Hosts Inc., Tampa, FL, USA (Data verified 12/04/07) *http://www.alekhlaas.org/forum ISP: CrystalTech Web Hosting Inc., Phoenix, AZ, USA(Data verified 12/05/07) *http://ekhlaas.ws/forum TMIDC-MY, Malaysia (Data verified 12/05/07)
http://www.al-boraq.org/ The Islamic Al-Boraq Net-Islamist forum supporting Jihad (Not active, data verified 12/04/07)
www.ansar-aljehad.blogspot.com Blog devoted to Jihad ISP: Google Inc., Mountain View, CA, USA (Data verified 12/04/07)
http://aboaumir.modawanati.com/ Blog devoted to Jihad ISP: Carpathia Hosting, Ashburn, VA, USA (Data verified 12/04/07)
http://almagribi.blogspot.com Blog featuring Jihad videos ISP: Google Inc., Mountain View, CA, USA (Data verified 12/04/07)
http://kjgafd.blogspot.com/ Blog devoted to jihad ISP: Google Inc., Mountain View, CA, USA (Data verified 12/04/07)
The following are some prominent Islamist forums and blogs in English, along with their URLs and ISPs:
- The Al-Hesbah forum
- ISP: NOC4Hosts Inc.; Tampa, FL, USA (Data verified 11/20/07)
- The Shumoukh Al-Islam forum
- ISP: TELEKOM MALAYSIA BERHAD; Malaysia (Data verified 11/20/07)
- The Al-Ekhlaas forum
- ISP: NOC4Hosts Inc.; Tampa, FL, USA (Data verified 11/20/07)
- The Jund Al-Rahman forum
- ISP: Layered Technologies, Inc.; Plano, TX, USA (Data verified 11/20/07)
- The Shabkat Al-Akhbar forum
- ISP: TIMETELEKOM; Malaysia (Data verified 11/20/07)
- At-Tibyan Publications website 
- ISP: Layered Technologies, Inc., Plano, TX, USA (Data verified 11/29/07)
- The Sawt Al-Jihad blog
- ISP: New Dream Network LLC; Brea, CA, USA (Data verified 11/20/07)
- The Ignored Puzzle Pieces of Knowledge blog
- ISP: ThePlanet.com Internet Services, Inc, Dallas, TX, USA (Data verified 11/29/07)
- The Crusader Watcher blog
- ISP: Google Inc.; Mountain View, CA, USA (Data verified 11/20/07)
- The Press Release blog
- ISP: Google Inc.; Mountain View, CA, USA (Data verified 11/21/07)
MAGIC in warfare:
English language terror sites:
Wanted terrorist, REWARD
100 Jahiddies on Facebook
Busted another Islamic hacker
This list is not comprehensive we have 1,200+ terror sites in our
data base. G
- New Terrorist sites: 8.30.09
Decoding the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate
Decoding the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program
Great Article from: "Yid with Lid"
Gerald M. Steinberg
The U.S. government's latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) has concluded that Iran froze its active efforts to manufacture nuclear weapons in 2003, and will not have such a capability until at least 2012. While the NIE states that the U.S. intelligence community has "high confidence" that the Iranians halted their nuclear weapons program in 2003, it also states that it has only "moderate confidence" that Tehran has not restarted the program.1 In contrast, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has said that while it is "apparently true that in 2003, Iran stopped pursuing its military nuclear program for a certain period of time," nonetheless, he adds that "in our estimation, since then it is apparently continuing with its program to produce a nuclear weapon."2
This assessment contrasts sharply with estimates that, if left undisturbed, Iran will cross the threshold in the next year or two - and the evidence for the NIE's sweeping claim is unclear. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently confirmed official Iranian claims to have completed construction of the 3,000 centrifuges necessary to produce enough highly enriched uranium for at least one nuclear weapon per year. This is also the basis for the statements from Israeli military and intelligence officials which view the next year - 2008 - as critical for stopping Iran before the finish line.
A number of factors can explain these differences in assessments. Israel, the prime potential target for a nuclear Iran, cannot afford to take the chance of underestimating the threat, and therefore relies on what policy-makers refer to as a "worst-case" analysis. This means that the focus is on Iranian capabilities, rather than intentions, which can only be guessed.
Using this approach, when Iran reaches the technological potential to produce enough fissile material necessary to make a nuclear weapon, it will be considered to be a nuclear weapons state, capable of threatening Israel with annihilation. And while the details of Iran's weapons fabrication efforts can be hidden and are less likely to be known to intelligence agencies, the operating assumption is that there are secret facilities where this may be taking place. Indeed, Israeli analysts have long warned their U.S. counterparts about the potential for a parallel "black" Iranian weapons program, based on a small nuclear reactor producing plutonium, and following the North Korean model. Indeed, Iran is known to be constructing just such a reactor at Arak, leaving room for another undetected facility.
The consequences of a small, secret Iranian nuclear program are less significant for the U.S., given its massive military superiority over Iran. Therefore, there is more room for political factors and influence in the official U.S. estimates. After having warned of a massive Iraqi program to produce weapons of mass destruction in 2003, and then finding no evidence following the invasion, the U.S. intelligence agencies may be trying to restore their image by going to the other extreme and underestimating the pace of Iran's nuclear weapons program. And Iran may very well continue to face difficulties in operating a very complex system of thousands of centrifuges spinning in unison and moving uranium to ever higher levels of enrichment without contamination.
However, from the portions of the NIE report that have been released, it appears that much of the assessment is based not only on technical capabilities and information gathered from satellites and other sources, but rather on attempts to understand Iranian intentions. But intentions are the most unreliable dimension in the realm of intelligence, and often reflect the interests, biases, and expectations of the assessor. While the construction of a massive centrifuge facility at Natanz to produce weapons grade uranium may not be the optimum path to nuclear weapons from an American perspective, this may be the best option open to Iran, and cannot be discounted. The scale and cost of the Natanz nuclear complex, as well as the plutonium production reactor and other facilities are not consistent with a program limited to producing low-enriched uranium for energy production. This makes no economic sense.
The NIE report touches on the Iranian plutonium program: "We judge with high confidence that Iran will not be technically capable of producing enough plutonium for a weapon before about 2015." But the NIE also takes into consideration that such materials might be imported: "We cannot rule out that Iran has acquired from abroad - or will acquire in the future - a nuclear weapon or enough fissile material for a weapon." U.S. arms control experts specializing in North Korea have indeed warned in the past about the scenario of North Korean exports of plutonium products to Iran as a possible shortcut to producing an Iranian bomb.3
Although President Bush responded to the NIE report by reconfirming his determination to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons, the threat of attack from the U.S. in the next five years is now much less credible. Given the disquiet in the U.S. over the status of the situation in Iraq, and with an official assessment stating that Iran gave up its program to develop nuclear weapons four years ago, the president would face very strong opposition to any decision ordering U.S. forces into battle again. And the fear of a potential Iranian counterattack, in the form of mass terror and possible missile attacks against American assets in the region, would increase this opposition.
As a result, a number of Israeli analysts and officials have expressed concern and even dismay over the NIE report and its implications. Israeli officials reject the NIE conclusions, and, as noted, view the threat as far more imminent. If Israeli intelligence concludes that the red lines are closer than those perceived in the U.S., Israel could still use force unilaterally (as was the case in Prime Minister Begin's decision to destroy Iraq's Osiraq reactor in 1981). But Israeli officials have sought to avoid a situation of needing to act unilaterally again.
For Iran, the sudden change in the U.S. assessment contained in the NIE report is a mixed blessing. The good news for the Islamic regime is that the odds of American military action have declined, at least for the time being. Iran can apparently continue to develop its centrifuges and reactors without fear of a sudden U.S.-led attack, and the odds of overt Israeli action have probably also declined.
However, the intense Iranian effort to be seen as a nuclear power that can no longer be stopped has been clearly exposed as a bluff. President Ahmedinejad and other officials have invested heavily in the attempt to portray the Iranian nuclear capability as a fait accompli that must be accepted in the region and around the world. And they have been aided at times by Dr. Mohammed El Baradei, the Director General of the IAEA.
Now, however, the Iranian leadership and an increasingly restless public face at least five more years of sanctions, international isolation, and pressure. And Dr. El Baradei has pulled back from granting Iran immunity from sanctions by highlighting the history of deceit and calling for full cooperation from Teheran. Indeed, following the U.S. report, the leaders of Europe, as well as China and Russia, have reiterated the dangers that would result from an Iranian nuclear weapon capability. Thus, the celebrations in Iran may be short-sighted and short-lived. The economic and diplomatic pressure is likely to continue and even increase.
The bottom line, as noted in the NIE report and by President Bush, is that Iranian nuclear efforts remain dangerous, and that there is still time to prevent this radical regime from acquiring these weapons. How much time remains the subject of debate, and the NIE conclusions are tentative and subject to revision at any time as new information becomes available. To its credit, the NIE report admits the limitations of the U.S. intelligence community with respect to its ability to determine that the 2003 halt in the Iranian weapons program is permanent: "We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program indefinitely." Clearly, the NIE conclusions now appearing in the press are not the end of the story.
* * *
1. "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," National Intelligence Estimate, National Intelligence Council, November 2007, http://www.odni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf
2. Steven Erlanger and Graham Bowley, "Israel Unconvinced Iran Has Dropped Nuclear Program," New York Times, December 5, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/world/middleeast/05webreact.html
3. Siegfried S. Hecker and William Liou, "Dangerous Dealings: North Korea's Nuclear Capabilities and the Threat of Export to Iran," Arms Control Today, Arms Control Association, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_03/heckerliou.asp
If mike McConnell is wrong this will be the end of his career.
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Khomeini without Beard,
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
USA Military using Black Magic against the Taliban and al Qaeda?
USA Military using Black Magic against the Taliban and al Qaeda?
Is the Military using black magic against the Terrorist?
Some Taliban and al Qaeda believe in black magic.
Of course Western civilization KNOWS there is no such thing as "magic".
How do they know? ARE THEY RIGHT?
By Scientific Investigation of course. We are trying to investigate something our civilization ontologically denies the existence of. Using our current paradigm we will arrive at only one conclusion. But Western science suggest something else.
I've used semontics (see Tomaselli's book "Appropriating Images" ) to investigate our current anthropological paradigm, looking for areas where it doesn't adhere to it's own standards of clarity or argument within its own ontology.
Magic seems to be one of these cloudy areas. In general we have viewed 'shaman magic' as something that didn't really exist. In that process we missed "healing touch" and the religion/health connection (seen in many recent studies) and the 'mind/body' connection indicated by the placebo effect, which western medicine filters out of the health equation.
We are trying to investigate something our civilization ontologically denies the existence of. Using our current paradigm we will arrive at only one conclusion. However current electronic entertainment would indicate that the nature of man, desires the experience of this liminal phenomena . There maybe an indication in the Western magic shows, i.e. making a 747, or Statue of Liberty disappear, that we still want to believe in magic But in Cartesian scientific logic all "magic" is codified as fiction.
If we use the terms "scientifically unexplainable", then we include Quantum mechanics, some astrophysics and the theories that hold Einstein's "Theory of relativity " together. We are left with no frame of reference . "Scientifically unexplainable", = magic?
Proofs, evidence and premise:
Albert Einstein's equation E=mc 2. Proves that in twentieth century physics nothing can travel faster than light. But Einstein5 (1935) also hypotheses that if he generated 2 particles on earth and sent one 2 million miles away and reversed its polarization in flight the other would also reverse automatically, according to the Laws of "Angular Momentum." This is called, 'Superdetminacy a Classical Quantum Logic'.
How could this message be traveling faster than the speed of light? A puzzling theory. J.S. Bell ' in his theorem (1964 C.E.R.N., Switzerland) using math was able to prove this hypothesis. That energy may travel from one location to another, at superluminal velocities3 .
1 H. Stapp "Bell's Theorem and World Process" 1975, II Nuovo Cimento, 29b, 1975
s B. Hoffmann, 'Einstein', Hart-Davis, MacGibbon G.B. J.S. Bell, "Physics" 1 (1964) pl951
Allen Aspect 2, in his Ph.D. thesis, was able to prove this faster than light movement in a laboratory experiment, in his famous EPR experiment with pairs of correlated photons4 . An observation performed on one of a separated pair of photons appears to instantaneously cause effect on the other. This effect causes a violation of classical relativity at the sub-atomic level.
So it is possible there maybe a Faster-Than-Light mechanism. Aspect's experiment proved that Bell's Inequality was violated (by violating his Inequality, you show his Theorem is valid). " It's just not knowing what is going on; i.e. whether information was traveling FTL, or whether there was some spooky action at a distance ."...... ( MAGIC )
But Quantum Physics just wrestles with this problem, unsuccessfully, in their current paradigm there is no mention of God or magic, their current theories dissolve into this "Quantum foam". One cannot scientifically investigate something it denies exists in its own ontological Cartesian paradigm. ( There maybe other examples in string theory also. )
If science can not explain it, magic becomes a reasonable hypothesis.
EVIL EYE RESEARCH FOR TALIBAN AND AL QAEDA. HERE:
Caution Insurgents have been banning our associates for posting this info in forums. The insurgents have been circulating a message not to click through to the 'evil eye ' research,
it was one to one, now out of the last 200 post views '0' click throughs to the "EE" research.
New NIE & Iran
We think these are some of the best minds in Civilian counter terrorism analysis .
And present them here for your education.
From the Counterterrorism Blog
Now we know why some in the Bush Administration-Dick Cheney’s folks in particular-fought like hell to keep the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear program under wraps. IRAN HALTED ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM IN 2003. Here’s what CNN is reporting:
Iran halted work toward a nuclear weapon under international scrutiny in 2003 and is unlikely to be able to produce enough enriched uranium for a bomb until 2010 to 2015, a U.S. intelligence report says. A declassified summary of the latest National Intelligence Estimate found with “high confidence” that the Islamic republic halted an effort to develop nuclear weapons in the fall of 2003.
This report was ready to go in December of 2006 but Cheney and his allies pushed back hard to stop it. They knew, as they know today, that this headline does not help them in their rush to start a new war. Damn it all!!! How dare those pesky Iranians prove malleable to diplomatic initiatives and pressure. You mean we can solve things without starting a war and killing civilians?
Boy there are going to be some grumpy neo-cons. This is probably part of the war on Christmas. This kind of news will make it very difficult for the agitators for war with Iran to hoist a glass of eggnog and toast bombing ragheads in Tehran.
Don’t be surprised to hear about how the intelligence community is now filled with partisans intent on undermining the Bush Administration. They’ll sound an awful lot like Hugo Chavez, who also is whining about the vagaries of democracy and insisting he only lost the referendum in Venezuela-which would have allowed him to become President for life-because of a nefarious CIA plot.
There are some unsung heroes in the National Intelligence Council who insisted on the integrity of the product. In the face of enormous political pressure to tailor information and pull punches that undermine Bush Administration talking points, the intelligence professionals did their job. They told the truth based on the facts in hand.
Now we need to wait and see-will the Bush Administration and the Congress take no for an answer?
It seems to me that we are all missing the real questions here:
At what point did the Iranians halt their Nuclear Weapon program? How advanced are they? How close are they to Nuclear weapon capability if and when they recommence? Is uranium enrichment the last remaining component needed? Did they put their NW program on hold to await sufficient enriched fuel? What other explanations for putting enrichment on such a fast track? At what point in the NW development program do we consider them so close that intervention is necessary? How far are they from that point? Can we tolerate them having enriched fuel on hand? Can we tolerate them having Nuclear weapon fuel enrichment capability? These are just some of the questions that need answers before we can truly pronounce on how best to secure our national security interests.
Read More »
Iranians with a nuke is not a threat to us. At least not as long as our extensive nuclear arsenal is intact and available for use. I find it amazing we can live under the threat of Soviet nukes for 40 plus years without collapsing into a puddle of sweat, but mention Iran and we go all wobbly. Iran is seeking parity in the region. The key for us is finding those steps or gestures that will reassure both Israel and Iran that they have nothing to fear from each other. As long as that fuse is lit there is the potential for gross miscalculation by either side.
"How horrible, fantastic, incredible it is that we should be digging trenches and trying on gas masksherebecause of a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing." Neville Chamberlain, 1938.
Larry, I disagree with you on this one.
Global leadership comes with being the Global Leader. I do not agree that we can tolerate a Nuclear armed Iran in any case. Rather, I agree with France's Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner that a nuclear armed Iran would make military action inevitable.
I do not believe that Iran's nuclear program is directed at achieving the same basic balance of terror that underscored US-USSR relations. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and US interests in the Gulf and worldwide are all potential targets of a Nuclear Armed Iran.
I do believe that using nuclear weapons is scarily consistent with Iran's current leadership's fanatical religious ideology (although such ideology is not shared by all of Iran's top leaders). We cannot rely on deterrence only as a strategy for dealing with Iran.
I also believe that it is incumbent on us to take the steps necessary now to head off such a situation, and that our best hope for doing so is well targeted and effective economic sanctions that put sufficient pressure on Iran's leadership to suspend enrichment.
Do you seriously believe Iran contemplates, somehow, someway, attacking us in the United States with nukes? If they had ICBMs, not to mention megaton warheads and a stated intent to attack us, then I would share your concern. But we have spent as much time threatening Iran, perhaps more so, than they have us. If Iran was conducting military operations in Canada and Mexico along the lines of what we are doing in Iraq and Afghanistan, do you believe we would act with the restraint Iran has so far?
The heart of the matter remains the relationship, or lack thereof, between Israel and Iran. Israel has nukes, Iran doesn't. Israel has a record of launching military strikes against other countries. Iran doesn't. Now, I understand why Israel did what she did, but let's not kid ourselves create Iran as a modern version of Nazi Germany intent on Lebensraum. Even under the "religious fanatics", Iran has never invaded a neighbor. Iraq did (with our encouragement and support). So I have trouble buying the Hitler analogy.
Iran has been a consistent sponsor of terrorism and has used terrorist attacks to great effect to strengthen its political position in the region. But that said, Iran, even with the mullahs, has not demonstrated a crazy commitment to escalate without regard to its own future. To the contrary, Iran has been very savvy from what I have seen of avoiding trip wires that might elicit a large military strike by us.
I think arguing that Iran can't have a nuke is silly for us on several fronts. First, we do not have the means of stopping it without the cooperation of Russia and China. Second, we've been able to live with nuclear states in Israel, Pakistan, India, and South Africa. Third, Iran's primary concern is and has been securing itself from external attacks. Undertaking measures that ensure Iran's internal security (while maintaining our ability to subvert them with capitalism) strikes me as a far more sane strategy rather than bellicose, empty-handed saber rattling.
Thank you for your message.
Let me make it clear that I am not so much concerned about a possible nuclear attack on the United States, as on the implications of a nuclear arm-backed Iran projecting its power and influence in an already unstable region that is now so critical to the perceived interests of so many countries, including those that also possess nuclear weapons.
I also remain less convinced than you that Iran’s current leadership can be counted on to make rationale decisions concerning its national interests, as separate and distinct from its fanatical theology/ideology. I fear that we must take their own religious declarations and writings in this regard seriously.
I also disagree with your assertion that Iran has not exercised, nor does it harbor aggressive attitudes towards its neighbors. Iran exercises tight reign and control over Hizbollah, which has been quite aggressive in Lebanon and against Israel. They retain active surrogates in Iraq, and they retain a deep hatred and rivalry vis a vis the Saudi Royal Family. We must all recognize that we are already at the very cusp of a religious civil war between fundamentalist Shiites and Sunni.
The United States, Europe, Russia and China all continue to have major vested interest in the Middle East and Persian Gulf regions. And the Global economy remains very dependent on these areas as principal sources of critical supplies of gas and oil. The US and Europe have particularly exposed crucial interests in these regions that must be protected. The United States also remains solidly committed to the security of Israel - a principle of US foreign policy that I fully support. These interests remain very vulnerable to an aggressive nuclear arm-backed Iran.
I believe that it is clearly in our foreign policy interest to take the steps necessary, in conjunction with other like minded countries in Europe and elsewhere, to dissuade Iran, and its leaders from holding to their present course. Iran’s leadership is not homogeneous, and there are different religious and political currents running through the leadership. Unfortunately, this includes a powerful segment of Mullahs now in key positions of authority that espouse an apocalyptic theology that could well envisage the use of nuclear weapons.
You point out that we have come to live with the fact that several other countries now possess nuclear weapons capability. This represents past international diplomatic failures, and has already increased the risks of nuclear catastrophe considerably. The current situation in Pakistan alone should cause us all sleepless nights. Nevertheless, in my view, the prospect of a nuclear armed Iran, under its present leadership dwarfs these current risks and concerns.
Re Sanctions as a tool. Yes, I believe they can still be effective in either dissuading this regime (for its own survival) to suspend/stop its uranium enrichment, or for deposing this regime. Unfortunately, we have not put together the sanctions appropriate to this objective. I believe that, here, Europe holds the key.
Europe is still Iran’s largest trading partner by far and still exports to Iran much more than it imports from Iran. European banks still remain critical to financing this trade, funding critical infrastructure projects in Iran, and Iran’s oil/gas transactions. European banks are still the principal repository of Iran’s middle class overseas money caches. This commercial class plays a growing critical role in providing urban employment opportunities, and from preventing urban unemployment from plummeting further. In my view this represents Iran’s Achilles Heel. Appropriate European pressure on these pressure points would cause very considerable economic pain to this Iranian urban commercial/middle class. Russia and China would not be able substitute here quick enough to stave off the economic consequences of such European sanctions measures.
Neither Russia or China have an interest in seeing Iran develop nuclear weapons. But, they are well positioned to allow the US and European to do the heavy lifting here. They like being able to enjoy the short term trade benefits from this situation. China is also in this to secure long term energy supply sources. We need to focus our diplomacy on convincing Russia and China that their long term interests are best secured by assuring also that Iran does not develop Nuclear Weapons. Re China, this means also assuring them that they will have assured access to needed energy supplies.
I could go on for a long time re a suggested workable sanctions strategy, but won’t tax you with that here.
Last point - Re Oil -- It’s a two-edged sword - Iran’s government cannot survive without exporting oil which accounts for 80 percent of Iran’s export earnings and 50% of the Government Budget. Even with great windfall oil profits, Iran’s economy is still a basket case. They simply cannot afford a significant cut-off or downturn in these revenues.
All for now, Best regards, Vic
One final point worth noting. You and I agree that Iran wields significant influence over Hezbollah. However, Iran's grip has weakened over the years as Hezbollah has emerged as a substantial political movement with significant military clout of its own. It is far less dependent on Iran than was the case in the 1980s. Iran meddling in Lebanon to secure its own interests is no different in principle from U.S. efforts in pursuit of her interests in various countries in the region. And a significant difference remains between the U.S. and Iran--it is the United States, not Iran, that has committed major military forces--ground and air--to invading countries in the region. We have convenient memory loss of our significant commitment of support to Saddam in the Iran/Iraq war. It is not like the Iranians reflexively hate us for our freedom. We do have a history and our role in Iran puts us more in the category of the wife beating husband rather than the beaten wife. We certainly feel justified in those actions we have pursued but my point is that we should not assume that Iran does not have the same level of moral certainty about the "righteousness" of its actions in pursuit of its national interests, no matter how reprehensible we find those actions to be.
NON CIVILIAN ANALYSIS:
Israeli intelligence believes Iran is still trying to develop a nuclear weapon, Israel's defense minister said Tuesday, disputing a U.S. intelligence assessment that Iran has halted its program.
"It's apparently true that in 2003 Iran stopped pursuing its military nuclear program for a time. But in our opinion, since then it has apparently continued that program," Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Army Radio.
Several of those involved in preparing the new assessment said that when intelligence officials began briefing senior members of the Bush administration on the intercepts, beginning in July, the policymakers expressed skepticism. Several of the president's top advisers suggested the intercepts were part of a clever Iranian deception campaign, the officials said.
Intelligence officers then spent months examining whether the new information was part of a well-orchestrated ruse. Their effort included "Red Team" exercises in which groups of intelligence officers tried to punch holes in the new evidence, substantially delaying publication of the NIE.
The estimate noted that Iran continues to enrich uranium for a civil nuclear energy program. But the intelligence experts said they did not consider this a weapons program because it is being done at openly declared facilities under international supervision.
But the report also depicts Iran as cleverly preserving its options, by making steady strides toward a civilian nuclear energy capability that both complies with international law and puts the country on a course that will allow it to easily develop nuclear arms if it so chooses.
NIE Report, Our View, and Backgrounder here:
At first we thought Bush had blessed the NIE, which of course he didn't.
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Intelligence tool lost.
This would have been a great Intel tool to track terrorist in IRC, we tried to use it several times but always got a message their bandwidth had been used up??
Sorry to see it go.
Apparently IRC participants don’t really like the idea of their conversations being indexed and searchable. Which is exactly what we said when we first wrote about IRSeek four days ago.
we have disabled the site…we were under the impression that users in public chat-rooms are aware that their conversations are, by definition, public. Since people are allowed to go in and out of such channels, and anyone could be logging (and most likely automatically logging the conversations in their own IRC client) the channels, it will come as no surprise to users that their chats are available on the web. Also, we assume you are aware of the fact that IRSeek is not the first entity to place IRC logs on the web, and most likely not the last one to do it (ignoring the possibility that chat logs may be stored by others, and not made available to the entire community). We think that users/operators who believe that their discussions on public channels on IRC are private (except their IP, realname, fullname, nickname) are under a serious misconception, with-or-without IRSeek. With that, we read the responses of our users and realize that some are definitely concerned.
Great idea, but people are freaked out about having their IRC chats be public (even though they already are). IRSeek is deadpooled for now.
NIE = Cover?
( NOTE: When our bots picked up the NIE, we had assumed George had Blessed it,
he had not; as we learned later. We have left up our original post with updates, notice how IMPORTANT just knowing if a leader backs an Intel report or NOT makes to the Paradigm conclusions. )
#1) Iran capitulated, they just blinked but is pulling a JFK, secret deal, USA backs down and they give up N. BOMB.
#2) Top level insider spying, How could they trust him?
#3) NIE is wrong, not likely after Iran WMD and N. Korea problems.
It has to be hard and fast Intel to get a NIE to do a 180 degrees, something certain.
If they are wrong it would cost the Republicans the election, so they are very sure. ( UPDATE: THIS DIDNOT COME FROM THE ADMIN, NO VOTER RISK )
Iran broke, if Iran quit Nukes back in 2003 why not avoid all the sanctions?
NO just doesn't fit.
This is very good news, if Iran just blinked, and Iran should back off on many fronts now.
And some face to face meetings soon with Iran IF they blinked.
Set out bots to collect evidence.
UPDATE: Bush is not pushing this.
#4) Some Press thinks its a split between Bush and US intelligence community.
Intel agency's Flip flopping? Munity or Truth?
2 Agency's deferred from this analysis, which ones?
If my staff blindsided me like this I'd be firing someone, Michael McConnell.
Note Georges facial tics, he was Pimped. And how he smiles when reporter says Iran not a danger.
Follow up: Our View:
USA should have a House and Senate Intel committee Investigation of the NIE and Michael McConnell. He just upset the diplomatic apple cart
with this surprise move and blindsided the administration and diplomatic efforts. Very unprofessional and suspect. ( We are re-thinking this..)
Musa Qala: UPDATE 12.04.07
Report: Situation in Musa Qala ‘worsening’Mon, 26/02/2007 - 20:23 — matt Source: Afgha.com
A recent report citing village elders of Musa Qala indicates the Taliban are now moving against civilians, beating and imprisoning tribal elders and tightening their authority on the dusty backwater.
"Ten people had been arrested, including an elder who had served as police chief, and one man was hurt and may have died, the elders said. The spokesman and an elder interviewed by telephone said that the Taliban were consulting with their leadership in Pakistan, and that a Taliban leadership council in Quetta, Pakistan, was ordering the arrests and issuing the death threats."
It has been four weeks since the district center of Musa Qala was overthrown by Taliban forces. Since then, the occupying Taliban forces have lost two leading commanders due to precision air strikes directed by NATO aircraft. NATO officials have long supported a military takeover but were waiting on word from the Afghan government.
The Afghan government had wanted to ‘negotiate’ the Taliban out of the town rather than evicting them through military means. The tribal elders who made it out of Musa Qala are begging the government to reconsider and send in the military.
"We want the government to take back Musa Qala," said one elder who helped broker the October deal. He said the people were ready to help NATO and the government, "but we don't know what we are waiting for."
Since the takeover, reports have trickled out describing the methods the occupying Taliban units were using to reinforce their positions; land mining the street leading to the city’s center and fortifying the buildings they are currently using as a command center.
The Afghan government would not respond to questions posed by Afgha.com, so it remains unclear if they were actively ‘negotiating’ with the Taliban or waiting for a signal from Musa Qala residents before going in militarily. One thing is certain, negotiations have failed and residents have spoken; the time for a showdown in Musa Qala is near.
Chronology of events in Musa Qala:
October 17, 2006: British forces pull out of Musa Qala City after signing a peace agreement with local elders. Security responsibility is handed over to them in exchange for keeping Taliban militants out and the evacuation of British troops from the area.
October 20, 2006: Taliban forces claim victory saying they forced the British to withdraw from Musa Qala.
December 3, 2006: UK and Danish patrol engage Taliban fighters in a massive gun fight outside of Musa Qala City. Airstrikes are called in killing several militants.
February 2: Hundreds of Taliban storm Musa Qala City. Police are disarmed and the Taliban flag is raised above the district headquarters. The band of Taliban fighters is led by commander Mullah Ghafoor, who is also the brother of slain commander Mullah Ibrahim.
February 4: An ISAF airstrike successfully kills Mullah Ghafoor and his bodyguards near the city limits.
February 10: Hundreds of Taliban remain in the city. The situation is tense and chaotic; hundreds of families flee fearing an impending invasion. Taliban fighters dig in, lying booby traps, and fortifying positions.
February 11: Helmand governor Asadullah Wafa tells reporters over 700 foreign fighters are operating in his province. Chechen, Uzbek, and Pakistani fighters are among the nationalities listed.
February 13: Taliban reportedly capture Helmand's Washir district.
February 14: ISAF airstrikes kill a third Taliban commander just outside of Musa Qala. He is identified as Mullah Manan, a top regional commander, and is thought to be a key player in the Musa Qala take-over.
February 19:Taliban seize Bakwa district in neighboring Farah province. They are quickly evicted two days later.
February 26: Reports of Musa Qala’s worsening situation begin to trickle out. Some tribal elders are still under house arrest; Taliban are reasserting their iron grip on the public.
March 5: Reports of Taliban seizing Helmand's Nawzad district emerge.
March 6: ISAF’s Operation Achilles is launched in northern Helmand aimed at securing the site of the Kajaki dam complex, easily the most vital reconstruction project in southern Afghanistan.
March 29: President Karzai, Defense Minister Rahim Wardak, and Helmand Governor Wafa speak in Helmand's capital urging the Taliban to leave Musa Qala.
April 4: Taliban hang three men in Musa Qala they suspected of spying for ISAF. The victims, according to the Taliban, provided information that led to the death of Mullah Manan.
April 18: Defense Minister Wardak ominously announces the government plans to recapture Musa Qala.
June 24-28: Four Afghan men are hanged for allegedly spying for American forces. Locals claim that the Taliban closed all of the schools in Musa Qala and force females to wear a burqa and be accompanied by a male relative when traveling in public; they also claim Taliban FM radio program airs during the day. A hefty Taliban tax has also been imposed on the impoverished citizens and tales of forced military conscription have merged.
July 5: The Taliban launch an armed incursion from Musa Qala into neighboring Sangin district. A malfunction in their mortar system caused an explosion that killed three Taliban and left three others injured. No civilian or Coalition casualties are reported. Pajhwok report
July 22: Taliban fighters launch a coordinated ambush against a joint Afghan-Coalition patrol in southern Musa Qala near the Shaban village. Coalition forces utilize close air support that dropped four 500-pound bombs on two compounds. More than 24 fighters are believed to have been killed during the onslaught. CJTF 82 report
July 23: As the combined Afghan-Coalition patrol leave the destroyed compounds in the Shaban village, Taliban reinforcement launch a second ambush and attempt to shoot down a Coalition helicopter with a surface-to-air missile but miss. An additional 24 Taliban fighters and two mid-level commanders died in the encounter. CJTF 82 report
July 26: Taliban fighters ambush an ANA patrol in southern Musa Qala. Coalition advisers on site with the ANA unit call in close air support to help attack 16 compounds occupied by Taliban insurgents. Two munitions are dropped on the highest concentration of insurgents leaving over 50 Taliban confirmed killed and an unknown number wounded. CJTF 82 report
Musa Qala residents claim the airstrikes left up to 16 civilians dead and scores injured.
August 15: Coalition and Afghan forces push deeper into Musa Qala. Taliban militants ambush the patrol in the Regay village, five kilometers north of Shaban village. Close air support is called in to bomb an entrenched Taliban unit firing from a trench line. Four Taliban fighters are killed and two wounded. CJTF 82 report
August 16: A second ambush occurs against a joint Afghan-Coalition patrol in Regay. A small-arms and light-artillery duel ensues leaving an unknown number of Taliban killed and wounded.
CJTF 82 report
August 25-27: Taliban fighters ambush a joint Coalition-Afghan patrol seven kilometers south of Regay village, referred to as the Musa Qala Wadi. Coalition forces respond with small-arms, machine-gun, and MK-19 fire that killed some 12 Taliban fighters. CJTF 82 report
The next day it was determined the Taliban platoon was in charge of protecting a large heroin lab. A large cache of "opium-processing chemicals such as ammonium chloride, liquid ammonia and charcoal" were found along with various guns and ammunition. The lab and chemicals were subsequently destroyed. Hours later, Taliban militants launched a salvo of 82mm mortars at the advancing Coalition patrol but missed leaving one civilian wounded. CJTF 82 report
Another ambush occurs north of Regay after the mortar salvo. Taliban fighters firing from trenches and compounds are met by Coalition artillery and small-arms fire. Twelve Taliban are killed during the clash, including three who are shot dead at close range in the trench line as ANA forces conducted a search. CJTF 82 report
August 29: A second Taliban-run heroin lab is discovered by Coalition forces in the village of Khyajehdad, Musa Qalah District. This lab, only five kilometers away from the other Taliban heroin lab, was also defended by a platoon of insurgents. CJTF 82 report
August 30: More trench warfare in Regay village. Entrenched Taliban fighters unleash a barrage of RPG and small-arms fire at a joint Afghan-Coalition patrol using trenches and compounds as defensive positions. As Taliban reinforcement began to arrive in trucks, close air support is used to destroy the vehicles and engage the trench lines. More than a dozen Taliban died in the assault. CJTF 82 report
August 30: Taliban insurgents ambush a joint Afghan-Coalition patrol seven kilometers south of Regay village, nearly the same spot that the August 25 clash erupted. An unknown number of Taliban died during the clash. CJTF 82 report
September 5: Afghan Auxiliary Police backed by Coalition advisers are ambushed in the Musa Qala Wadi area. Taliban reinforcements soon arrived and begin firing from a trench line. Close air support is called in to bombard the trench system leaving up to 24 Taliban fighters dead. CJTF 82 report
September 25: Afghan Army soldiers battle with Taliban insurgents in the Musa Qala Wadi region. After several dozen Taliban fighters ambush the Afghan-Coalition convoy from trenches and compounds, Coalition artillery and air strikes are used against the Taliban positions leaving an estimated 61 Taliban killed. One Coalition soldier died from wounds suffered after an RPG struck his position, four others are wounded. CJTF 82 report
October 19: Joint Afghan-Coalition patrol is ambushed in the Musa Qala Wadi area. The pitched six-hour battle came to an end after close air support was called in and bombed the entrenched Taliban fighters. At least 72 Taliban fighters are believed to have been killed from the airstrikes. CJTF 82 report
October 20: Further clashes erupt in the Musa Qala Wadi region. The protracted engagement left nearly 36 Taliban fighters dead. An Afghan civilian provided the location of a freshly placed IED and averted its detonation against a Coalition vehicle.
CJTF 82 report
October 31: Mullah Abdul Salaam, a Musa Qala Taliban commander and leader of the Alizai tribe, holds direct negotiations with the central government in hopes of defecting peacefully. The former governor of Helmand, Sher Mohammad Akhunzada, is also an Alizai tribesman and has recently asserted his desire to return to power.
November 9: A local Afghan journalist for Ariana Television is arrested and questioned after he conducted a trip into Musa Qala City with three other journalists. He was later released.
November 12: A British armored group leads a charge through the upper Sangin Valley and into southern Musa Qala. Some 50 armored vehicles, including the highly touted Viking and Mastiff vehicles, surround the southeastern area of Musa Qala City. Daily Telegraph
November 14: French Mirage 2000 fighter jets are flying over Musa Qala as a show of force to deter enemy activities in Musa Qala. Report
November 28: Tribal elders in Musa Qala claim Afghan and Coalition raids into the City center are set to begin. Hundreds of families have fled fearing the impending onslaught.
November 29: Musa Qala Taliban commander Enqiadi tells local reporters he commands 2,500 fighters in the district. "Last year we used guerrilla attacks," he said. “This year we will organize frontal assaults. Our lines are so strong that the foreigners will never break them. The foreigners say they are going to launch a major operation in Musa Qala. We are ready for that. In Musa Qala alone, we have 2,500 fully armed fighters. It will be very easy for us to resist the attack. We want to take the whole province this winter."
December 3: A Coalition airstrike near Musa Qala kills Mullah Sainy, the Taliban commander who kidnapped an Italian journalist last March; four other Taliban died in the raid.
Garmser:( BLOODY, 5 PART VIDEO )
Paradigm Intel: Future:
Battle: American soldiers fighting in Sangin Afghanistan, Helmand Province, southern tip of Musa Qala district.
This is our NEW automated Taliban tracking section.