What is "Paradigm Intel"

What is Paradigm Intel?

Reprint of one of my past posts:

The value of OSINT may not be fully appreciated.

New Paradigm Info seeks out People.

Our OSINT picked up the "Arabic Hacker" Trainer.
Some civilian sectors are well versed in OSINT, Competitive Intelligence rely on it.

Off the top of my head, some of the fundamental methods we use, in general.

Basic: Up todate bio info , facts, etc, culled from OSINT and filed.

Analyzing if Target is in deception mode.

These usually will become apparent as a linear, in depth paradigm is developed, and as the incident/action/writing deviates from the paradigm. Lies will appear as a spike on the paradigm model, the question becomes 'is it a paradigm shift' or 'deception'. the test is the future, the News/blogs/forums.Did it happen like the target says or not, paradigm shift indicator if it checks out, or possible deception if its false. The value is you know something different is going on, and can analyze it.

Of course we deal with public reports related to the target.

One can track 'talk' vs 'actions', And develop a pattern. Major changes in the pattern can point to paradigm shifts which can be useful in forecasting.

One can track what they say they are going to do vs what happens ( check the news a month later see if it happened; or the appropriate time frame ). Looking for patterns which can reveal deception, or if 'it ' continues a shift indicator.

Collecting Geographic Intel ( everything about a Geographic area/state/town ) also can reveal links/connections.

Eventually you have a Paradigm for the target, a history, understanding, knowledge of target and idiosyncrasies.

With our paradigm we start to measure action, statements, reports against the paradigm.

We call this Paradigm Intelligence. A long form of inductive reasoning, confirmed by repetition.
Then we we check items against the Paradigm mostly deductive reasoning/logic.

Ontological problem with ' Paradigm Intel ' is its seminal fault "Just because you can forecast actions doesn't mean you understand whats going on." ( Example: Ptolemy and his theory of the planets, Earth-centered Ptolemaic system, LOOPING Planets. He could forecast position of the planets, but his understanding of the system was very wrong.)

While you forecast with Paradigm Intel, one can have multiple hypothesis of the cause of the "action at a distance",

Utilizing this method it is possible to get a look inside a closed cell.( This link will give you some background and context, On that page click on the "Internet Anthropologist Link, we were able to peak into the USA and Taliban closed cells/Paradigm, both attempting to deceive the other ).

Paradigm Intel is good a developing alternate hypothesis, and testing them.
A useful tool in the arena of forecasting asymmetrical threats in war.

CONTEXT and Cultural familiarity: Can be definitive also.
Patki news services tend to down play number of Taliban or al Qaeda killed and over state the number of Patki troops dead. Often they will state total number deaths, with no break down between insurgent and government troops. And the tend to use the word "dead " rather than "killed". As one denotes facts, dead, while the other denotes actions, killed.Patki news semantics are very exacting and aim for neutrality as they consider all killed on both sides as Pakistanis first and government or insurgents second.
There is a taste of killing your enemy without offending their/our culture.
If the KIA are related to as "Killed" This can be a message the ummah hear that others may miss.
The use of the term "Killed" instead of "dead" is meant to be offensive to the ones killled in this instance.
Coupling OSINT with sub-rosa investigations and social engineering or Moles also give an options for checking details.

Paradigm Intel looks at the part above the water (Public):
and can work out the part under the water (Secret)

There is more involved but you get the Idea.
The understanding you have of the subject
will help ID paradigm shifts.
Or one might develop a Micro paradigm of a
subject then pop it into a MARCO paradigm
of the big picture, and connecting the two,
theoretically, will provide a middle ground
hypothesis.

"Paradigm Intel" is a method for developing

hypothesis, LOOKING INTO a closed cell,
spotting paradigm shifts and forecasting actions,
and developing strategic or actionable Intel.

Turning Data into knowledge, Intelligence.

Gerald
Anthropologist

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EXCLUSIVE: Paradigm Intel on Libyan Operation

Our Paradigm Intel take on Libya war:

The Arab league promoted the strike,

but seem absent from the airwar?

But the operation wouldn't have gone

forward without definitive commitments.

Secret commitments but substantial backing.

For some of these ME countries it financial support.

Big bucks, for others its Arab speaking Delta force

types under cover.

And still others its an small army of no uniforms

troops to support the demonstrators after the

strikes to Qaddafi forces to take out his

ground troops.

And maybe some countries supplying assassination

teams hunting Qaddafi.

And still others a substantial Intelligence force,

spies to be the eyes and ears on the ground.

The US and collation forces know they can't

win by air power alone. And wouldn't attempt

the operation without full planing.

We have confirmation of countries helping in secret,

for their own reasons, and assurances its not only

the Europeans and Americans in the fight.

We may be looking at a new form of warfare,

or an old form carried to completion.

Subcontracting to other countries in secret.

The interesting part is America will be blamed for

not doing more.

And if America put boots on the ground would be

blamed for Oil, imperialancy.

US is going to get Bitched at no matter what they do.

But America is NOT doing "nothing", China, Russia.

UPADATE: 03.24.11

"NO terrorist in anti-QADDAFI FORCES."
That takes some bodys boots on the Ground.

Paradigm Intel: Collation forces telling
demonstrators to hold in place till the "softening"
up of Qaddafi forces finishes.

Twitter as a Military Force:
Tweet:
#WhereIsQaddafi Tweet longitude Latitude, from Cell phone GPS,

For Collation target practice:

Libya up date Map:

Behind the scenes:
Paradigm Intel:
Obama wanted to wait to form collation before going in,
because of the number of civilians being killed France went
in alone, US moved right away to support, straighten out collation
problems later, priority was civilian lives.
Now they are sorting out collation problems. G

Qaddafi's location?
In a tent:

In a tent... Lat- 32.79708730158076 Long- 12.536773681640625 ??? #WhereIsQaddafi

How Field treat Battle war wounds, FIRST AID Arabic - Internet

Gerald

War Anthropologist

What is "Paradigm Intel"

Libyan Intel operation update.

.

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Ops and Intel Update 03.18.11

Lots going on, I've been twitting
mostly on Japans nuke problems.

Time to catch up on the rest of the world.

First Pakistan:

Davis, American, diplomat, hero, innocent.

Paki is in the midst of a infowar backlash,
their vitriol is so bitter Paki is spiraling into
a fit of hatred, self doubt and have become
unconnected to reality.

They have not trust worthy sources.

The Taliban is running a very effective
infowar against its own people.
and the blow back is going to be devastating.

The Taliban and ISI have infiltrated the nationalist
movement and pumping out conflicting propaganda
generating mass confusion, hatred and cracking the
paki physic. They trust no one and see collusion and
conspiracies everywhere.

http://www.PakNationalists.com

Even the most outlandish concepts are finding purchase,
no matter how bazaar.
This Infowar is running with the approval of the Paki
Military looking to undermine the legitimate Government.
But it is spiraling out of control.

The Paki Cyber Army isn't, its an infowar operation for
the young.

The PCA is run by two people,
and they have two web sites:

http://www.facebook.com/notes/pakistan-cyber-force-official/no-record-of-davis-immunity-avaiable-foreign-ministry-tells-lahore-high-court-pe/200226159995802

http://eaglesofpakistan.blogspot.com

More background below:

http://www.sify.com/news/anti-americanism-poses-bigger-challenge-for-pak-army-than-taliban-news-international-ldrqajdechb.html

http://www.tboblogs.com/index.php/news/comments/not-your-fathers-taliban-jihadi-group-embraces-new-media/

Paradigm Intel suggest Paki maybe getting ready for a complete break
with the US.

I hope the US forces are ready for that.
BSU's deployed.
The craziness starts:

MY TWEETS:
http://www.sify.com/news/us-opposes-china-pak-nuclear-deal-news-international-ldtk4eceiid.html China Paki nuke deal,Where's Stuxnet?

Shahbaz Bhatti,Christian, modern day martyr in #Pakistan|http://t.co/sgP3PSS Insanity runs rampant in paki,G

Protests continue over Raymond Davis release http://t.co/ydVfBcFMore Crazy, it continues, G

Times of India: 22 Indian fishermen held in Pakistan -http://goo.gl/news/zhLR More Crazy, G

DAWN.com: PAF on alert after drone strike that killed over 40 -http://goo.gl/news/k3EV And the craziness starts, G

Dr. Lavoy: “… Despite pending economic catastrophe, Pakistan is producing nuclear weapons at a faster rate than any other country in the world.”

Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: ISI waving the Taliban Flag

Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: ISI officially supporting Afghan Insurgents...

Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Drone offensive much more EFFECTIVE..

Huge paradigm shift by Tliban al Qaeda; #Infowar not to gain recruits but stir up anti-American sentiment. New program very successful, G

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Anonymous huge fopa.

The problems with the Anonymous security paradigm:
http://gawker.com/#!5783173/inside-anonymous-secret-war-room

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

in 2010 alone, there were in excess of 10 million attacks on classified networks. Of those, 90% of the attacking IPs came from abroad with the US, Japan, and South Korea ranking as the three highest ranking sources of attack.

The number one source of attacks China:
http://www.thedarkvisitor.com/2011/03/us-1-perp-attacking-chinas-classifed-networks/

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

A recent surge in attacks against a variety of sites that exploit a MHTML XSS vulnerability publicly disclosed in January - and which still hasn't been patched by Microsoft - has been remarked on by Google's Security Team researchers.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Google Makes Whitelist Admission

If they have a white list then you KNOW THEY HAVE A BLACK LIST.

http://www.webpronews.com/google-whitelists-2011-03

We still maintain Google has been
penetrated by Islamic extremists.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Raytheon Teams With West Point to Combat

the Insider Threat on War Front Lines.

Excellent concept, needs to be applied to networks in CONUS.

http://raytheon.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1769

Currently there is very little deterrent for just BEATING on

classified firewalls.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Japan nuclear problem while not under control

is understood now, Chernobyl type tomb stone

coming.

Question remains about the level of radiation

blown into the sea, and where tides and currents

carried it.

Problem lies in protecting backup cooling systems,

expect they will be reinforced in US, AFTER similar

nuclear accident in US.

#Japan #Quake #Tsunami #Fukushima #evac,facing NEW seminal paradigms,steep learning curve,cut Urself some slack,SALUTE,G WORLD PROUD OF U

Japans nuclear meltdown

Japans nuclear meltdown III

Japans nuclear meltdown II

Reactor 4 still a problem, pool leak?

And this is a 3 mile Island X 6.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GOP continues on political suicide missions for

Billionaire buddies they got $700 billion in tax cuts,

while cutting Tsunami warning funding, cutting social

nets for poor and Mil budgets to maintain $700 billion

tax cut. Disaster in MI,OH and WI.

xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Libya is Obama enrolled in Carter war school?

Just not sure he has the Balls for it.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Thats all I can talk about for now.

HAVE big story coming out in future

as soon as OPsec clears it.

Gerald

War Anthropologist

.

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Our Genius readers 03.18.11

would seem to indicate 4% in Japan and 6% outside Japan

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Worst job, smartest person in World

Ok you come into work as normal:
And are having some tea, checking the
news papers and computer checking
reports from last night.
14:46
Friday 11 March a 9.0 magnitude earthquake.
And you feel a quake it goes on for almost a full
min, you feel confident the reactors will hold,
and hear alarms go off as the reactors go into
automatic shut down.

Fukushima I power plant's nuclear reactors 1, 2, and 3 are automatically shut down by the shake.
Your greatful Nuclear reactors 4, 5, and 6 were undergoing routine maintenance and were not operating,
And while you feel some fright you know the rectors
Are made to withstand an earth quake up to 8.0

You make your way to the control room,

and every one is very busy, checking everything
and turning alarms off as things are checked.
The tremor has the additional effect of causing the power plant to be cut off from the Japanese electricity grid, however, backup diesel generators kick in to continue cooling.
The TV is on and you see reports of the earth quake
over most of N Japan.
About 45 min later you get a call, all the water in the
V road way has vanished.

Your plant's operator, finds that units 1 and 2 are not operating correctly and notifies the you.

And you put the word out as per SOP.

You feel your gut tighten, you know its a Tsunami.
And you hear the Tsunami alarms go off.
You realize you and your co-workers could die.

And you start telling your subornate administrators
to make sure every one has gone to high ground.
And about 10 min later looking out to sea you see
this small wave coming, but you know its going to
be huge and its moving 800 miles an hour right
for your Nuke plant.

15:01 Seconds later it hits, the sound is deafening,
It crashes into your facilities like a rail road train
and about as loud, taking out 40 to 60% of all buildings.
The tsunami unleashed by the earthquake strikes the Fukushima facility damaging the backup generators required to cool the reactors.
More alarms going off.
You are still alive.

Before

After

Click for full page:

With the loss of power from the grid and the damage to the generators, the plant has become "dark". Later, reports indicate that only the generator for unit number 6 remained working in full operational capacity.
Complete darkness for maybe 30 seconds feels like an hour.
You manage to get your flash light out of your desk and turn it on,
shining it in co-workers faces, to make sure they are ok.

And the back up emergency lights come back on.

immediately after the shattering earthquake, We all focused attention on a damaged storage pool for spent nuclear fuel at the No. 2 reactor at Fukushima I, The damage prompted us to divert much of the attention and pumping capacity to that pool, The shutdown of the other reactors then proceeded badly, and problems began to cascade."
If we can't fix this we could all die, would I be blamed, what else can I do?
Have I forgotten any thing?
alarms kept sounding and urgent calls continued interrupting me, one right on top of another.
YOU are flooded with emergencies.
A numbness comes over you and you shake it off, you have to work through this.
you can't freeze up 100 of thousands of lives depend on you.

16:00
The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency of Japan initiates an emergency headquarters calls in an attempt to gather information on the 55 nuclear reactors in Japan. There is no report that radiation was detected outside plant borders. You talk with them and try to outline problems as you understand them.
OK so far no radiation leakage. And you are still alive.

19:03
Prime Minister Naoto Kan declares a nuclear emergency status.

This is announced by Yukio Edano, Chief Cabinet officer in Japan. Japanese government officials try to comfort the people of Japan by telling them that the proper procedures are being undertaken. They also announce that no radioactive leaks have been detected.
His confidence disturbs you as you know how many problems you are working on and know how little
you know about whats going on, you break out a check list and start following procedures, trying to track
all the emergencys and alarms.

21:00
You get back on the phone and report upstream What your facing, problems as you understand them.
The you hear:

An evacuation order is issued by the government to persons within a 3 kilometres (1.9 mi) radius of the Fukushima I station. Those within a 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) radius are told that they can remain in their homes and carry on with regular activities until told otherwise.

At Fukushima I, the ongoing lack of electricity is causing the cooling system to fail, and the pressure within the nuclear units build up. This pressure buildup is the result of residual decay heat causing the coolant, which is not being circulated, to evaporate. There is no confirmation of radiation leaking from the reactor. TEPCO announces that pressure inside reactor unit 1 of Fukushima I is more than twice normal levels.

They didn't lie but didn't fully disclose what your fears are.
You realize its only your plant that has been effected, will you be blamed?
Will you live through all this have you forgotten any thing, missed any key
information, forgotten any thing?

Saturday, 12 March

04:30
As you get a hold of how serious all these problems are and an indication of
what you don't know you report upstream again.
It keeps getting worse while you feel unsafe you can't leave.
Even if it means you die.: Officials declare a heightened state of alert for Fukushima II (Dai-ni). Officials declare a state of nuclear emergency for Fukushima I (Dai-ichi).^[9]
05:30
You have an emergency and may have a temp solution, and get the OK to proceed.: Despite the high risk of the hydrogen ignited after combining with oxygen in water or the atmosphere, in order to release some of the pressure inside the reactor at Fukushima I unit 1, the decision is taken to vent some of the steam (which contained a small amount of radioactive material) into the air in the concrete container building surrounding the unit.
10:09: TEPCO confirms that a small amount of vapor has been released into the air to release pressure in reactor unit 1 (Fukushima I).
10:58
Your solution didn't work as well as you expected, and you know your not sure what is causing
the problem. And you released radiation into the wild.: Pressure still remains too high inside reactor unit 2 at Fukushima I. In order to alleviate some of this pressure, a consensus is reached to, once more, vent radioactive vapor into the air.
15:30: Evacuation of residents within 3 km of Fukushima II underway. Evacuation of residents within 10 km of Fukushima I underway.; Good if this goes way wrong that many won't die. But you will.

Your going over your notes and check lists and making calls to your peers at othernuke plants to try and figure out just how bad it is and the cause, when you heara deafening explosion.
It shakes the building did one of the reactors explode spreading radioactive materials all over,
you get a hold of your self, inside your fairly sure this is an impossibility.
You start getting calls about the inured, and alarms again this time they are radiation alarms.
You shout orders and Q the video.

Unit 1 at Fukushima I: cameras document a massive hydrogen explosion on the outer structure of one of four buildings at the plant. It also documents the outer structure collapsing. TEPCO 3 hrs later announces that four persons who are employed at the power plant have been injured.; You make another call upstream again. They are yelling again, and you don't have all the answers; just too much unknown.
18:36 (approximately): TEPCO announces that four persons who are employed at the power plant have been injured in the unit one explosion.; For the next hour plus you collect data readings and make phone calls to experts you know and trust,; and report findings and assumptions up stream. NO one killed, YET.
20:00: Uncertainty surrounds the actual cause of the blast at Fukushima I (later identified as a hydrogen explosion) and the damage caused.; Yukio Edano announces that the concrete building surrounding the steel reactor container at unit 1 in Fukushima I has collapsed as a result of the explosion; however no damage has been inflicted on the reactor itself. You hope but all indicators point to facts its intact, you hope and pray.
21:40: Evacuation zone around Fukushima I extended to 20 km. Evacuation zone around Fukushima II extended to 10 km.