What is "Paradigm Intel"
Reprint of one of my past posts:
The value of OSINT may not be fully appreciated.
Off the top of my head, some of the fundamental methods we use, in general.
Our OSINT picked up the "Arabic Hacker" Trainer.
Some civilian sectors are well versed in OSINT, Competitive Intelligence rely on it.
Basic: Up todate bio info , facts, etc, culled from OSINT and filed.
These usually will become apparent as a linear, in depth paradigm is developed, and as the incident/action/writing deviates from the paradigm. Lies will appear as a spike on the paradigm model, the question becomes 'is it a paradigm shift' or 'deception'. the test is the future, the News/blogs/forums.Did it happen like the target says or not, paradigm shift indicator if it checks out, or possible deception if its false. The value is you know something different is going on, and can analyze it.
Analyzing if Target is in deception mode.
Of course we deal with public reports related to the target.With our paradigm we start to measure action, statements, reports against the paradigm.
One can track 'talk' vs 'actions', And develop a pattern. Major changes in the pattern can point to paradigm shifts which can be useful in forecasting.
One can track what they say they are going to do vs what happens ( check the news a month later see if it happened; or the appropriate time frame ). Looking for patterns which can reveal deception, or if 'it ' continues a shift indicator.
Collecting Geographic Intel ( everything about a Geographic area/state/town ) also can reveal links/connections.
Eventually you have a Paradigm for the target, a history, understanding, knowledge of target and idiosyncrasies.
We call this Paradigm Intelligence. A long form of inductive reasoning, confirmed by repetition.
Then we we check items against the Paradigm mostly deductive reasoning/logic.
Ontological problem with ' Paradigm Intel ' is its seminal fault "Just because you can forecast actions doesn't mean you understand whats going on." ( Example: Ptolemy and his theory of the planets, Earth-centered Ptolemaic system, LOOPING Planets. He could forecast position of the planets, but his understanding of the system was very wrong.)
Utilizing this method it is possible to get a look inside a closed cell.( This link will give you some background and context, On that page click on the "Internet Anthropologist Link, we were able to peak into the USA and Taliban closed cells/Paradigm, both attempting to deceive the other ).
Paradigm Intel is good a developing alternate hypothesis, and testing them.
A useful tool in the arena of forecasting asymmetrical threats in war.
CONTEXT and Cultural familiarity: Can be definitive also.
Patki news services tend to down play number of Taliban or al Qaeda killed and over state the number of Patki troops dead. Often they will state total number deaths, with no break down between insurgent and government troops. And the tend to use the word "dead " rather than "killed". As one denotes facts, dead, while the other denotes actions, killed.Patki news semantics are very exacting and aim for neutrality as they consider all killed on both sides as Pakistanis first and government or insurgents second.
There is a taste of killing your enemy without offending their/our culture.
If the KIA are related to as "Killed" This can be a message the ummah hear that others may miss.
The use of the term "Killed" instead of "dead" is meant to be offensive to the ones killled in this instance.
Coupling OSINT with sub-rosa investigations and social engineering or Moles also give an options for checking details.
Paradigm Intel looks at the part above the water (Public):
and can work out the part under the water (Secret)
There is more involved but you get the Idea.
The understanding you have of the subject
will help ID paradigm shifts.
Or one might develop a Micro paradigm of a
subject then pop it into a MARCO paradigm
of the big picture, and connecting the two,
theoretically, will provide a middle ground
spotting paradigm shifts and forecasting actions,
and developing strategic or actionable Intel.