Thinking out loud

Chitral at the blue mark.



There is alot going on behind the scenes according to OSINT.

PARADIGM INTEL:

George has a chance to tie this up before he leaves office.
Take out OBL and Iran nukes at the same time.

The Yanks Are Coming
http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=123788

That is the premise.

"The Chitral Valley is now opening it's first all-weather road to the outside.
We are building up significant troop strength and heavy material on the border.
The Paki's are withdrawing now.

Chitral is a city in Pakistan with limited access, true.

However, Chitral is also a region. A large area of Pakistan where OBL has lived in the past.

The Chitral region covers the entire area directly beside the Corridor of Waqan, Nuristan, Uzbekistan, Tajkistan, & China. It can be considered the foothills of K2.

This is exactly where intelligence reports, & you have stated he may be.

Rumors for several years that a "jin" (protective hex) was in place in the Nuristan area where Kunar and Badakshan come together.
Sounds goofy, but many Muslims are deeply superstitious. If it is known that jinnis (spirits) protect a place, only an elite few can enter and absolute secrecy can be managed.

The recent "K2" location makes little sense, no back door. Too much pressure and he will bail out to Uzbekistan, traveling the corridor of Wahkan now that the snows have melted enough for movement.

This just in: Authorities in three West European countries have arrested ten individuals whom they believe to have links to Islamic Extremist factions in Uzbekistan. It is reported that those arrested were obtaining funding for a militant group within Uzbekistan that allegedly has ties with al-Qaida.

Yuldeshev and his Uzbeks are going to be trouble, many are Russian Army trained, very disciplined and they play rough. Rumors are that the Chinese are terrified of them regarding the Olympics, talk of a dirty bomb there. The Uzbeks would do it and they have all the access they need with the Tibetans. ( China, Russia and India are in on this too. G )

The Corridor of Waqan, Balochistan, Nuristan, Uzbekistan, all possible and likely.

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, 61, Pakhtun of the Kharoti tribe is the only warlord in the theater that could keep bin Laden hidden. He is the key to finding UBL.

"For the last month, we have been distributing matchbooks in Peshawar, Pakistan with UBL's picture and a reward and phone numbers."

The matchbooks have been distributed since 2000.

In 2005 we added television commercials in Pakistan." ( PAYING OFF, G )

From Company "C"'s "Discussion: RUMINT".
Sources include: Terintel, Anonymous, gandalftb, others and me.

G

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By Syed Saleem Shahzad

Saturday, 12 July 2008.
Pakistan's planners now see their objective as isolating radicals within the Taliban and cultivating tribal, rustic, even simplistic, "Taliban boys" - just as they did in the mid-1990s in the leadup to the Taliban taking control of the country in 1996. It is envisaged that this new "acceptable" tribal-inspired Taliban leadership will displace Taliban and al-Qaeda radicalism.

This process has already begun in Pakistan's tribal areas.

A leading Pakistani Taliban leader, Haji Nazeer from South Waziristan, who runs the largest Pakistani Taliban network against coalition troops in Afghanistan, recently convened a large meeting at which it was resolved to once again drive out radical Uzbeks from South Waziristan. This happened once before, early last year.

In particular, Nazeer will take action against the Uzbeks' main backer, Pakistani Taliban hardliner Baitullah Mehsud, if he tries to intervene. Nazeer openly shows his loyalty towards the Pakistani security forces and has reached out to other powerful Pakistani Taliban leaders, including Moulvi Faqir from Bajaur Agency, Shah Khalid from Mohmand Agency and Haji Namdar in Khyber Agency. Nazeer also announced the appointment of the powerful commander of North Waziristan, Hafiz Gul Bahadur, as the head of the Pakistani Taliban for all Pakistan.

The bulk of the Pakistani Taliban has always been pro-Pakistan and opposed to radical forces like Baitullah Mehsud and his foreign allies, but this is the first time they have set up a formal organization and appointed an amir (chief) as a direct challenge to the radicals.

SOURCE:
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Baitullah Mehsud, virtual or double?

Baitullah Mehsud, virtual or using a double?

Two vids two different people.

Is he even real?

Look at these photos.

By Bill RoggioMay 31, 2008 1:21 AM

Baitullah Mehsud from a recent Taliban video. SOURCE:

OR

Baitullah Mehsud is reluctant to be photographed

SOURCE:

OR


Shoulder length hair, center, left, hair and shoulder, from his most recent video.

Taliban leader. Baitullah Mehsud photo ( our art work )

Gerald

.

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What could Paki do with $45 usd million a year

Pakistani Taliban commander spends $45 million yearly

By Bill RoggioMay 31, 2008 1:21 AM

Baitullah Mehsud from a recent Taliban video.

Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban and the commander in South Waziristan, spends more money on yearly operations than al Qaeda spent year prior to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, according to the governor of the Northwest Frontier Province.

"He is spending between Rs 2.5 - 3 billion [about $45 million] yearly on procuring weapons, equipment, vehicles, treating wounded militants and keeping families of killed militants fed," Governor Owais Ahmed Ghan told Daily Times. Ghan said the money could not have come from donations alone; the opium trade in Afghanistan is filling Baitullah's coffers.

Most of the money is spent on "the means of communication — vehicles, fuel and equipment — and then on treatment of wounded fighters, and lastly on keeping the killed comrades’ families fed," Zulfiqar Mehsud, an aide to Baitullah, told Daily Times last March. "We have to change vehicles after we use them for a year. Every vehicle at our disposal must be in top condition because we have very rough and tough roads and hilly areas and cannot afford to keep vehicles that are not as fit as our job requires."

Baitullah is thought to operate a force of more than 20,000 fighters, some of whom are professionally trained. His forces beat back Pakistani Army assaults in 2007 and 2008, and overran two military outposts in South Waziristan. His fighters also captured an entire Pakistani Army company without firing a shot.

The operating costs for Baitullah's forces in South Waziristan exceed that of al Qaeda, according to numbers compiled by the 9-11 Commission and terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna. The 9-11 Commission report says al Qaeda central spent an estimated $30 million for yearly operations, which included salaries for members, the operation of training camps, weapons, vehicles, and the development of training manuals.

Al Qaeda also spent an estimated $10 million–$20 million per year to receive a safe haven from the Taliban in Afghanistan. "Bin Laden also may have used money to create alliances with other terrorist organizations, although it is unlikely that al Qaeda was funding an overall jihad program," the 9-11 Commission Report states. "Rather, Bin Laden selectively provided startup funds to new groups or money for specific terrorist operations."

Gunaratna's numbers are similar. He estimates al Qaeda spent $36 million a year on operations in Afghanistan, and another $14 million for global operations, putting the yearly budget at about $50 million. Gunaratna’s estimate of al Qaeda's funding of the Taliban and allied terrorist movements is much higher than the 9-11 Commission Report's estimate.

"To buy loyalty, Al Qaeda also funded individuals in various Islamist groups, including the Taliban, to the tune of $100 million," Gunaratna said, citing US intelligence sources.

Multimedia presentation of the senior Taliban commanders in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Click to view.

Baitullah is but one Taliban commander

While Baitullah is arguably the most important and capable Taliban leader in Pakistan's tribal areas and in the Northwest Frontier Province, he is not the only one. The $45 million cited does not extend to leaders such as Faqir Mohammed in Bajaur, Mullah Fazlullah in Swat, the Haqqanis in North Waziristan, Mangal Bagh Afridi in Khyber, Omar Khalid in Mohmand, and others in the region.

And Baitullah may not be receiving the largest funding in Pakistan, a senior US military intelligence source familiar with the Taliban in Pakistan told The Long War Journal. Bajaur's Faqir Mohammed may be receiving more money than Baitullah, the source said.

Faqir has close links to al Qaeda (he is believed to have sheltered Ayman al Zawahiri several times) and Bajaur serves as an al Qaeda command and control center for operations into eastern Afghanistan. His safe houses and training camps have been the target of several US airstrikes since 2006.

SOURCE:

For more information on the terms of the peace agreements in Swat, Bajaur, and Mohmand, and the proposed terms for the agreements in South Waziristan and Kohat, see:

Pakistani government inks peace deal with Swat Taliban
Pakistan is negotiating a new peace agreement with Baitullah Mehsud (South Waziristan)
Pakistan releases Taliban leader, signs peace deal with outlawed Taliban group (Bajaur, Malakand Division)
Pakistan strikes deal with the Taliban in Mohmand
Negotiations with the Taliban under way in Kohat

See The Fall of Northwestern Pakistan: An Online History for more information on the rise of al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan and the peace agreements signed between the government and the Taliban.

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$45 MILLION what a waste, how many Muslims have the Taliban killed?
How many Mosques have they bombed, market places, women and children killed?

What drug dealers are they working with, put a CIA team on any Drug cartels they work with,
Black wet ops, on the drug partners.

Gerald

.

Taniban again show they have no honor...

Red agencies/ districts controlled by the Taliban; purple is de facto control; yellow is under threat

Taliban commander Qari Hussain survived military operation in Waziristan
By Bill Roggio
May 25, 2008 10:18 PM

A senior Taliban commander thought to have been killed in a Pakistani military operation in South Waziristan in January has turned up alive. Qari Hussain spoke to the media on May 23, just after Baitullah Mehsud said the Taliban would continue to attack NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Hussain mocked the reports of his death at a press conference held at a government school building in South Waziristan. “I am alive, don’t you see me?” Hussain said.

Qari Hussain is a senior lieutenant to Baitullah, the overall commander of the Pakistani Taliban. Hussain is a senior Taliban commander in the Mehsud tribe in South Waziristan. He runs suicide training camps that indoctrinate young boys between 9 and 12 years old. He is also described as a leading ideologue for the Taliban. "His extremist views are popular among Arabs, Uzbeks, and Afghan fighters," The Christian Science Monitor reported.

Baitullah and Hussain had a falling out in June 2007 after Hussain launched a series of violent attacks on police in the tribal areas. Hussain's followers conducted beheadings and assassinations of tribal leaders in South Waziristan and the settled district of Tank. He was behind the attack on the home of the political agent of Khyber Agency, which resulted in the death of the agent's six family members and seven guests.

The incident resulted in clashes between the two Taliban leaders as Hussain failed to obtain permission to conduct his campaign of terror. Baitullah retaliated by capturing 17 of Hussain's followers and threatened to kill them.

While the incident prompted some Pakistani analysts to predict the fracturing and demise of the Taliban, the rift was smoothed over during the summer after the Taliban went on the offensive against the Pakistani military, government, and civilians. Hussain and Baitullah attended a jirga, or tribal council, that was formed to help free more than 300 Pakistani troops captured by the Taliban in South Waziristan.

Hussain's home in Kotkai was destroyed by the Pakistani military in January. The Pakistani military launched an operation in South Waziristan on Jan. 24 after Taliban forces commanded by Baitullah overran two military outposts and conducted attacks against other forts and military convoys in the tribal agency. The military intercepted Taliban communications that indicated Hussain was killed in the assault.

The Pakistani military reported Hussain may have been killed back in January, then reiterated that claim after taking reporters to one of Hussain's suicide camps in Spinkai in South Waziristan on May 18.

"It was like a factory that had been recruiting nine to 12-year-old boys, and turning them into suicide bombers," said Major General Tariq Khan, the commander of Pakistan's 14 Division, which led the operation in South Waziristan.

"The computers, other equipment and literature seized from the place ... give graphic details of the training process in this so-called ‘nursery,’" Dawn reported. "There are videos of young boys carrying out executions, a classroom where 10- to 12-year olds are sitting in formations, with white band of Quranic verses wrapped around their forehead, and there are training videos to show how improvised explosive devices are made and detonate

SOURCE:

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Again the Taliban show they have no honor.

suicide training camps that indoctrinate young boys between 9 and 12 years old, so-called 'nursery, as they can't get adults for suicide bombers.

death of the agent's six family members and seven guests.

Hussain failed to obtain permission to conduct his campaign of terror.

Taliban have Suicide bombers dance the dance of death for a few media bytes.

Taliban claims responsibility for mosque suicide bombing

G

Out Break of Taliban mental Illness.

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Urdu-Pashtu Taliban conection

Image via WikipediaMEMRI.ORG
Urdu-Pashtu Media Blog
http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=Announcement7008


Pakistani Taliban Hold Jihad Conference, Issue 6-Point Shari'a Implementation Program
( Pakistani Taliban Hold Jihad Conference: THEY HELD A JIHAD CONFERENCE ..WTF...g )
The Pakistani Taliban has successfully held a two-day jihad conference at the shrine of 20th-Century local Islamic preacher Haji Sahib Turangzai in Pakistan's tribal district of Mohmand Agency. According to the Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Mashriq, the local Emir of the Movement of Pakistani Taliban Umer Khalid issued a 6-point program for the implementation of shari'a in Mohmand Agency.

Source: Roznama Mashriq (Pakistan), April 17, 2008
http://www.thememriblog.org/urdupashtu/blog_personal/en/6901.htm

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Pakistani Taliban Demand Release Of 250 Fighters

The Pakistani Taliban have asked the Pakistani government to release 250 of their leaders from detention, in exchange for freeing 80 to 100 government officials who were kidnapped in Pakistan's tribal districts. The Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Mashriq quoted Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan spokesman Maulvi Omar as saying that demands for freeing prisoners from both sides were discussed during their talks on establishing peace in the border region. According to the report, the Taliban spokesman said that as part of the peace agreement being worked out, Pakistani Taliban are not barred from carrying out attacks on NATO and U.S. troops in Afghanistan. He said that the recent release of Islamist leader Maulana Sufi Muhammad from prison was part of a deal with the government.

Source: Roznama Mashriq (Pakistan), April 28, 2008
http://www.thememriblog.org/urdupashtu/blog_personal/en/7048.htm

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( THEY ANNOUNCED IT; THEN HAD A TWO DAY CONFERENCE )
Taliban To Hold Jihad Conference In Pakistan's Tribal District Of Mohmand Agency

The Movement of Pakistani Taliban has announced its plan to hold a conference of ulema on Jihad at the shrine of local preacher Haji Sahib Turangzai in Pakistan's tribal district of Mohmand Agency. Haji Turangzai was an Islamic preacher who also fought against the British in the early 20th century.

Source: Roznama Mashriq (Pakistan), April 15, 2008
http://www.thememriblog.org/urdupashtu/blog_personal/en/6849.htm

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Imran Khan: President Musharraf Should Be Hanged For Red Mosque Operation

Pakistani cricketer-turned-politician and Tehreek-e-Insaf party president Imran Khan has said that President Pervez Musharraf should be hanged for ordering the military operation in the Islamabad-based Red Mosque last year. The Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Jang quoted Imran Khan as saying: "On the issue of the Red Mosque [operation], President Musharraf should be hanged [because he] committed extreme atrocities on girls and children in order to endear [himself to] the United States."

Source: Roznama Jang (Pakistan), April 22, 2008
http://www.thememriblog.org/urdupashtu/blog_personal/en/6984.htm

AND

Activists Demand Release Of Nuclear Scientist Dr. Qadeer Khan

Activists of cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan's Tehreek-e-Insaf party hold placards demanding the release of Pakistani nuclear scientist Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, who is in detention after he admitted his role in international nuclear proliferation.

The government of Pakistan recently relaxed restrictions on Khan's movements, allowing him to meet a limited number of friends. However, the restrictions were reimposed after Khan gave interviews to the media. Dr. Qadeer Khan is considered a national hero due to his role in Pakistan's nuclear bomb.

Source: Roznama Express (Pakistan), April 14, 2008

http://www.thememriblog.org/urdupashtu/blog_personal/en/6808.htm

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Former Pakistani President: The U.S. Is World's Greatest Satan

Former Pakistani President Muhammad Rafiq Tarar has described the United States as "the world's greatest Satan." The Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Express reported that Rafiq Tarar made the statement during an address to a conference in the honor of Prophet Muhammad. According to the report, the former President said: "The United States is the world's greatest Satan and is playing its satanic game across the world. And unfortunately, its trusted advisor [meaning President Musharraf] has been thrust on Pakistan and is extending its policies." Rafiq Tarar also urged the Organization of Islamic Conference to terminate its relations with all countries where cartoons of Islam's Prophet Muhammad were published.

Source: Roznama Express (Pakistan), April 21, 2008
http://www.thememriblog.org/urdupashtu/blog_personal/en/6941.htm

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Militant Tribal Leader: "We Are Out To Spread Islam In The Entire World"

The Chief of militant Islamic tribal group Lashkar-e-Islam Mangal Bagh has said that the group's activities are not limited to Pakistan's tribal district of Khyber Agency. The Urdu-language Roznama Khabrain quoted him as saying: "Allah revealed the Koran, which was not sent for any one particular region of the world...We are out to spread Islam throughout the world." In the ongoing fighting between Lashkar-e-Islam and rival tribal groups in the tribal district of Khyber Agency, where dozens of people have been killed in recent days. In the image above, people are fleeing the conflict-affected regions of Khyber Agency. (Photo courtesy: Roznama Jang (Pakistan), April 18, 2008)

Source: Roznama Khabrain (Pakistan), April 18, 2008
http://www.thememriblog.org/urdupashtu/blog_personal/en/6921.htm

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Taliban Commanders Take Control Of Several Towns In Pakistan's Swat District

The Taliban have regained control of several areas in the Swat district of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province and their armed units are patrolling the region. The Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Mashriq reported that the Taliban have regained the control of the Imam Dheri Markaz, once the stronghold of their leader Maulana Fazlullah.

According to the report, the Taliban commanders appeared Wednesday at the Imam Dheri Markaz, cleaned the mosque and offered evening prayer. The Taliban leaders also announced they will offer weekly Friday prayers on April 11. According to the report, the key commanders loyal to the militia leader Maulana Fazlullah are meeting tribal elders in the region. A spokesman for Maulana Fazlullah told Roznama Mashriq: "Our demand is the implementation of shari'a and we will stand by it." The Taliban had taken control of most of the Swat district in the North West Frontier Province last year before being repulsed by the Pakistani army. The new secular government in the province has said it will start a process of dialogue with the Taliban in order to eliminate extremism in the region.

Source: Roznama Mashriq (Pakistan), April 10, 2008
See Also "Pakistan Army Takes Maulana Fazlullah Headquarters At Imam Dheri, In Pakistan's Swat Valley" from December 6, 2007 http://www.thememriblog.org/urdupashtu/blog_personal/en/3962.htm.

http://www.thememriblog.org/urdupashtu/blog_personal/en/6753.htm

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TALIBAN IS Pashtu based:

The Taliban are working the Pashtu culture on all levels,
religious, sports and political.

Since Google doesn't have a Urdu translator, the Urdu section of the WWW is to all effects is BLACK. And makes OSINT very difficult.

The only "in" the West has to the Pashtu culture is the WWW, radio and newspapers. And the Taliban's Pashtu Social Change Engine is in full swing and calls for a major effort as part of any COIN efforts.

Many of the Talibans front line, non-cadre troops can be hired away, and sent somewhere.

There are several weakness in the Taliban paradigm, a return to the 1600's, rejection of modern entertainment, subsistence economic level,
damage to tourism, enforceable anti-drug laws, high death rates, suicide bombers. All of which can be run against the Taliban.

Taliban as Tribe

Macro view of the Pashtoo ...

G

.

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Pakistani Taliban quits peace talks with gov't

Image via WikipediaPakistani Taliban quits peace talks with gov't

ISLAMABAD, April 28 (Xinhua) -- Pakistani Taliban said Monday they had suspended peace talks with the government as "the government has refused to accept their demand of troops withdrawal from the tribal regions."

The News Network International news agency quoted Taliban spokesman Maulvi Umar as saying that the dialogue process had been deadlocked as "the government has refused to accept key demands."

The army spokesman did not comment over the Taliban statement.

Maulvi Umar said Taliban representatives who were holding talks with the tribal elders, mediating between the two sides, had quit the talks due to the government's attitude.

Maulvi Umar said that Taliban wanted troops be withdrawn from the tribal regions and the Swat valley before a formal agreement but the government did not agree to the proposal.

He said Taliban had attached expectations to the new government but now "we have realized that the statements of goodwill from the government side were hollow slogans".

Maulvi Umar claimed that the government was not sincere and serious in the talks. He warned that the government would be responsible if the militants took any action. He also said that some government institutions do not want success of Taliban-government dialogue process.

The Pakistani Taliban, led by Baitullah Mehsood, declared a ceasefire with the government and entered into dialogue with the government to end violence.

The new government announced to hold talks with the militants who would lay down arms.

Taliban presented four demands to the government including withdrawal of army from South Waziristan tribal region and Swat valley, exchange of prisoners, compensation to the affected people in Waziristan and Swat and free movement of Taliban activists.

Tribal elders have been mediating between the Taliban and the government to broker a peace deal and to end violence in the tribal regions and the restive Swat valley in the country's northwest.

Editor: Mu Xuequan