I believe the Americans are a paper tiger. After all, we held Americans hostage for a year, have warred against them in Iraq, and done other stuff with no consequences meaningful to us.
I have lots of assets.
I have a recently developed nuke, and means of delivery. I have Hezbollah, thus control Lebanon, an alliance with AQ, and relations with Hamas and Fatah as well. Have the ability to attack in Iraq and Afghanistan. My ally Syria has many of the missing weapons of Saddam.
Iran 4 front missile comand.I or my allies have agents in the US, Britain, and throughout Europe, in India, and worldwide. These agents have identified targets, and are ready to move. Probably have agents inside Israel, also ready.
I have alliances of a sort with Venezuela and North Korea. Though most Arab countries don't like me much, they like me better than the US and Israel, and we have important interests in common. I know things about them the west doesn't know. Plus I can intimidate them with my nukes.
Persians invented chess. So the plan includes surprise, misdirection and distraction. My pieces are in place, but timing is a question.
Even if US is a paper tiger, I want to act when US is weakest and most confused. Lame duck president is known to be aggressive, still capable of action. If I believe McCain is likely, November/December will be attractive. If Obama is likely, after January may be better. If I'm uncertain of being able to accurately gauge election probability, then right after a setback for Bush may be best. Considering experts in the US can't predict election results, the last may appeal most. Don't want to lose a window of opportunity.
The Supreme Court decision re Guantanamo, or something similar, might suffice as a setback for Bush.
Other factors re timing:
Wait: My weapons may need more testing/development. US displays increased aggression re Pakistan. AQ is not quite ready in Palestine. Recent attention to weapons I shipped to Hezbollah. If the nuke is ready, others factors are not too important.
Move ASAP:
Political rebellion in Iran, supported by US, adds pressure to move when able. US gains in Iraq and Afghanistan. Turkey acts against terrorism. US distracted by major floods and election hoopla. I see most US alliances as weak right now. Israel ruler weakened, act before he is replaced.
Goal: wipe out Israel, humiliate the US, establish Iran as a power, and manipulate God into bringing the Mahdi now and making Islam supreme. This last makes sense to me, seems a reasonable undertaking. We have personal suicide bombing now the world will see
State suicide
nuclear bomb, to bring on the Mahdi.My scenario:
Ally Syria distracts Israel with negotiations, the Golan issue appears plausible, provides potential hostages. Egypt negotiates re Hamas, may not relate to me, but I don't mind, muddies the water.
Hamas lures Israel military into Gaza.Once Israel is committed in Gaza, make a big political stink in the UN, rouse the ME street. At the same time, Venezuela and N. Korea make some waves, create a ruckus.
Palestinian TERROR GROUPSI plan to deter and dismay the US by a rapid succession of surprises: terror attacks on US homeland and ally Britain, attacks in India, and elsewhere. Particular focus on European attacks to defuse NATO.
Iran's pay-for-performance ... Coordinated attacks in Iraq & Afghanistan using not only expected insurgents and techniques, but infiltrated agents. May use Saddam's weapons, might even threaten Baghdad with a nuke, play on Western humanitarian weakness. Hezbollah's
Cyber attacks, disrupt communication. The longer it takes the US to assess the intent of the attacks, the more likely success.
I nuke Israel. Their retaliation will be confused, and my facilities are hardened. I have missile defense.
Iran will push the buttonAgents in Israel take control of possible assets, hostages, engage in terror strikes. Hezbollah attacks, Hamas uses advanced weapons I have supplied. Syria moves in. What Iranian forces can be spared from Iraq move in. I hope that Egypt and other Arab countries that hate Israel jump in, I have some influence in those countries.
Persians SKUNK Arabs. My prediction is that once they see I meant what I said, they will be reluctant to defy the new regional power, and at the minimum will not interfere. My nuke will be influential.
A weapon is meaningless if its possessor is unwilling to use it. I believe the US will not use nukes at all - too timid and concerned about approval of world community. Israel might in retaliation, but not in initial attack. I believe I can prevent, withstand, or deter Israel's retaliation. I'm not concerned about the people of Iran, they exist to support the Islamic Revolution. Thus once I use my nukes, mine are more powerful than those belonging to the unwilling.
If I can envelope and seriously menace Israel fast enough, Israel itself will be hostage against the US. Only rapid overwhelming force against Iran could stop me. I can then destroy Israel, while promising not to and engaging in diplomacy. Europe, and probably the US, will dither. China and Russia will only pretend to care.
Speed is essential. However if the attack on Israel is not successful within a couple days, need to be able to maintain the
illusion of deniability ( al Qaeda ) and
Hamas attacks to allow needed time to destroy Israel. Must maintain power of public opinion to hamstring action.
Once the US engages in defense of Israel, events become unpredictable, other countries including Russia and China engage, and the situation goes out of control. I can threaten the US and Europe that
I still have agents in place for more terror attacks. I trust to my political skills to ride the tide of events, and hopefully the Mahdi will take charge then. Islam and sharia will reign.
( Notice the look on the fathers face. notice the look on the girls face,
( Notice the look on the fathers face. notice the look on the girls face,
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