The sky is falling in Afghan

A journey into Taliban-controlled Afghanistan

By NIR ROSEN of the Rolling Stone mag.

Analysis :By Gerald

From Internet Anthropologist Think Tank

Oct 30, 08

Great article, but naive, in its understanding of the 'Stan' situation.

Some great insights into the Taliban, operations, motivations, beliefs and paradigm.

Our Paradigm Intel forecasts some interesting points.

The world wide depression which is just begining , will be blamed on what ever Government

is in control, right now the Pakis think their economic decline is the fault of the Government

at war with the Taliban.

Now I am not suggesting this, but if USA pulled out the Taliban would be blamed for the economic decline during the depression, but as it is now the Government and the USA will be blamed.

OPEC is headed towards a rachetting paradigm, part of OPEC shooting its self in the foot plan.

OPEC let oil prices rise, by not expanding production to keep prices down, while swimming in the profits. But prices go so high many poor countries can't afford the oil, reducing pressure, and cutting demand, and the price has slipped from $147 BBl to $62 bbl yesterday.

OPEC Countries talk about needing $80 bbl of oil prices, like if they can keep prices in that range

they can make it a go economically.

The other half of that equation is volume, they have to sell close to their peek volume to keep

their economies a float at $80 a bbl. Well as the depression commences, volume demand will fall.

So cutting production at some point becomes counter productive, and raising prices by lowering production will just prolong and expand the World depression. Further cutting demand.

So they will cut production raising prices and more countries will buy less and less oil as the depression deepens reducing demand lowering oil prices again, at some point OPEC countries will reach a point

they can no longer cut production and remain solvent or stable.

At some point OPEC will realize the only way out is to raise production, and spur world wide recovery

with cheap oil.

The Chinese are also charter members of the shoot your self in the foot club.

( USA was the founding member )

China has huge cash surpluses, which the world needs, and at some point the Chinese will grow a set of balls and rescue the world economic system as the world and China sinks into a world depression.

And the USA feds need to get all deratives and sub-prime paper out of money markets.

This will bring back bank confidence.

Increasing FDIC insurance to $250k with out increasing FDIC reserves is meaningless.

Putting some congressional whores, lobbyist and Banks CEO's in prison for the sub-prime mess and violation of usury laws will go a long way towards restoring confidence, and repealing the new bankruptcy laws the bank corps use against their victims would be a big confidence restorer.

The article points out the problem the US Military have in dispensing law and order.

They traditionally have been in the business of taking out Armies.

That Paradigm is failing for the US Army.

We saw that in Iraq, They beat the Iraqi armies and stood ready to do battle with any remaining army remnants, but didn't stop the looting, "not our Job".

In Afghan ran out the Taliban, but let the war lords, pre-Taliban regime, take over again as crininals and corruption lead the way.

The US Military does not dispense criminal and civil justice.

The Taliban does dispense civil and criminal justice.

When the Umma need a court they turn to the Taliban.

USA is not offering much of an alternative.

If a civil servant turns criminal the US Military won't do much.

The Taliban will try him.

Something in the article that surprised me was that the Taliban don't like the Taliban.

Competing commanders shoot each other, Taliban members themselves were advising a

divide and conquer plan against the Taliban.

The Taliban admit they have declared open war on civilians.

And you don't have to be an American spy to get beheaded,

one can get beheaded for co-operating with the Americans.

Thats got to be hard on the Ummah.

The Taliban get support of the civilians/ummah by religion, patroitism, money or they kill you.

Thats a Hell of a risk /reward ratio paradigm.

US Forces have to provide enough troops to drive out the Taliban and occuppy Afghan, under

Afghan Gov. control, and provide safety and security, and law and order, justice, courts.

And if the appointees turn criminal, arrest them.

Yes I know about the legal problems this paradigm entails but if the US doesn't provide these services the Taliban will. And if the people don't have security then the Taliban will just return and kill them for working with the Americans.

The Afghan people don't want the Taliban, but don't have a choice, bend to the will of the Taliban

or risk beheading, being shot or killed by suicide bombers.

You put a gun to my familes head and I'll vote for the Taliban.

The ummah will tell you the Taliban are good and they want the Taliban,

while the Taliban gun is in the shadows.

Provide the whole ummah with security and the Taliban will die, the Ummah will kill it.

General David Petraeus has the paradigm he developed it in Iraq,

and current paradigm intelligence indicates it will also work in "Stan".

Gerald
We are developing more anthropological papers based on the discoveries in his article.
Check back G

Iran's options ( Memri )

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Observation: Process.

( sorry Google formating screwing up )

Observation: Process.

By Gerald: Internet Anthropologist Think Tank

Oct 22, 08

The world should not miss the commitment USA has to

democracy/capitalism.

USA has been pursuing a process known as Globalization.

Which is lowering the standards of living in the USA and raising

standards of living elsewhere.

In joining the Global market place, USA has to compete on wages

and prices.

American workers have to compete with workers in China,

Walmart is the paradigm.

And the average American runs the Paradigm.

Americans want cheap prices without consideration for who

produces the goods.

USA is lowering its standards of living and shifting wealth over

seas.

$40 billion in profits in China alone.

My father was not competing with world labor, but enjoyed the

highest blue colar wages in the world.

BG, Before Globalization.

Some criminals have gotten into the American economic

system, thru 'sub-prime' paper,

The scam is so large it threatens world markets, add to that the

new record prices of recent oil, and the oil price increases alone

will bring on a world recession. Now add oil prices to the Sub

prime debacal and that is the makings of a big world recession.

Note USA has not stolen the oil from Kuwiat, or Iraq, both still

sell their oil thru OPEC, or prgged to OPEC prices. OPEC has

shot its self in the foot, the OPEC nations will be hurt in this

world depression.

As prices and demand fall.

Capitalism works best in a democracy.

And global capitalism is self correcting, preserves peace and

raises standards of living.

My love afair with Global capitalism stems from a profit motive

for social concepts. It will defeat the Russian mafia and

American Lobbyist.

I'm not taking about American capitalism, or Russian capitalism

both are quite different, but draw from the same ecoomic

system. Russian capitalism is rooted in a Mafia style capitalism.

While USA is rooted in a lobbyist style system.

There are problems in both systems.

But the underlying model for both is capitalism.

G. Capitalism doesn't want poor people, the poor don't buy

many goods.

G. Capitalism doesn't like war, it kills customers and workers.

War between China and USA would ruin the Walmart paradigm,

walmart doesn't want war.

War destroys assets,

Globalization looks at the worlds work force as the work force for

G. capitalism, the worlds population as buyers, customers.

It doesn't help sales figures when you kill your customers.

That is the view of pure G. capitalism, with out an political over

lay. Politics corrupts capitalism. Both in America and in Russia and

in China.

The Lobbyists in America have corupted the political system.

The criminal element, Putin's Mifia has corrupted the political

system in Russia and both political systems corrupted capitalism

in both countries.

Globalism is force of wealth re-distrabution based on value and

the citizens choices.

In the USA people chose to pay $4.00 for a gallon of gas,

and $8.00 for a gallon for pepsi or coke or water..

( $1.00 per liter )

The new criminal element in the USA has changed the customer

paradigm from "the customer is always right

( we love the customer )

to how hard can the customer be screwed, legally.

( usuary interest rates )

Customers now are grist for the mill grind them up.

Lobbyist have enabled this new criminal paradigm,

changing the laws to redefine crime as legal.

By legally bribing congressmen and women.

To re-write bankruptcy laws so the criminal Credit card corps

( charging Interest rates that used to send the Mafia to prison, )

can persue its usary victims to the Grave, attach wages for life.

The power to make change lies with the workers and

customers ( citizens ). Stop electing WHORES, force

prosecutions of the Usuary Corp. criminals,

Lobbyists and Congressmen.

But the basic capitalism system ( un-corrupted ) wants

fair pay for workers, ( customers )

and happy customers,( workers ) higher production, more profits.

Poor, unhealthy, uneducated people make for bad customers

and workers. The old system tended to seperate customers and

workers by national borders. Cheap labor in China, and wealthy

customers in USA.

Globalization tends to view the world as customer and worker.

Wage Arbitrage still occurs, but its very nature is to balance the

system. To equalize what ever is being arbitraged.

USA is leading the world into Globalization even at its own

detriment.

Except for the American Indians USA has always given the

defeated countrys back to their people with a democratic

Government, and trusted its people.

Japan, Germany, Iraq, Afghanstan. USA didn't make any of

them the 51st state and steal all their natural resources,

The world needs to reconize the sacrifices USA makes.

The commitment to destroy those who kill civilians, women

children bomb Mosques and market places.

Even to the extent it threatens its own economy.

USA screws up some, but it is not intentional.

USA carpet bombed Germany and Japan during WWII, and has

spent considerable resources to cut civilian deaths since..

The world owes USA a debt for its leadership, even with the

Lobbyest screwing things up.

USA has always stepped up to fight EVIL/SATAN

Hitler, Bin Laden etc.

Not perfect but always there for support/fight.

USA has been good for civilization, humanity,

They are always trying even though they make mistakes.

They have not given up.

al Qaeda, Taliban, criminals in the sub-prime, and credit card

debacal will not win.

Eventually the world will be at realitive peace again and

evil/satan will lose and its thanks to USA.

Gerald

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Economic Terrorism., Comment/discuss

By Gerald; Internet Anthropologist Think Tank
Oct 10, 08

Dr. Walid Phares presented a new paradigm: Economic Terrorism.

SOURCE:

If they chose to increase the price of oil to their own determent and say so in some memo, or a smoking gun. Then one might have a case for Economic Terrorism, a kind of economic suicide bombing.

But to attribute price fixing to terrorism is alot like watching someone having sex and predicting if they are in love or not. If done well you can't tell.

There is enough Greed around to motivate pricing fixing without even a thought of terrorism.

But often the talk about Wall St often assumes there is some all controlling power operating things, THERE ISN'T, THAT IS WHAT MAKES CAPITALISM WORK. The Feds are trying to control things now with a bailout, and who has more money than the Feds? No one. And they can't control the market, maybe influence it, some.

On Wall Street calling someone greedy is like telling a holy man he prays to much, fairly meaningless.

Greed , on Wall St. if you get too greedy you loose. Greed is a self correcting vice.

When is the last time you waited to long to sell a stock and ended up giving back some of the price gains being too greedy. If you get too Greedy and do something Illegal you go to prison.

But the Lobbyist have been able to change that in one case, Usury, Mafia went to prison for that, banks get bailouts??? And get to change the bankruptcy laws so they can pursue their victims to the grave, legally.

If Opec raises prices to high then a world recession will ensue as poorer countrys can't afford oil. And while high oil prices lead to bigger cash flow in the near term, in the long term it leads to lower cash flows, as less and less of the oil is bought and it engenders altermative energy sources.

And Opec is about cash flows over the intermediate term, life term of the regime/ruler. Loss of cash flows to OPEC leads to less money at home and civil unrest.

Currently there are enough market forces to account for the oil price increase, peak oil,

increasing demand, Russia and China, India etc. Or so it seems, I don't have access to the data

I would need without a lot of work to check it out.

But lets take a look at whats on hand.

Walid: "The international community is waking up to watch another dimension of globalization: the lethal domino effect. When the greatest economy goes down, the international economic system follows."... but of course this includes the OPEC nations too.

Oil pricing is a combination of supply and demand, which determines the price.

And to my knowledge the house of Saud is running higher production than ever, and greed prevents the other OPEC countrys from cutting production. Cut production equals fewer profits.

Walid asks "Many argue that the trend of pushing out-of-control loans to unqualified segments of society emanated from political operatives on the Left. Meaning that pressure groups, including national politicians, induced Wall Street to cross the fine line of appropriate banking policy to grant almost any loan seeker, regardless of his capacity to pay back the mortgage loan. But even if that were true, market analysts would have figured out the weaknesses of such a plan. So the next question is: on what grounds was the huge release of funds rationalized?"

Eventually I think we will find the banks were behind the huge release of funds and even promoted it to the Dems. Once a Banking Corp found they could grant loans regardless of risk

and re-package the loans and sell them to the Feds, without risk of loss then it became the question of how many of these bad loans can the push out the door to the Feds, Freddie and Fannie.

Make a bad loan, collect huge fees and sell it to the government where they sell them on Wall St as a type of Real Estate bond, all with out any risk to the banks. The same banks charging the usury interest rates on credit cards, they are already running a criminal usury scam, they just found a way to add a mortgage scam.
Some of these RE bonds leaked into the Money Markets.

And the banks are not done, they will be back asking for more money for bailouts, the current law provides for bailouts of Credit cards ( charging up to 99% interest ), and bad auto loans.

The CEO's gave up Golden Parachutes in exchange for performance bonuses, after lining up $700 billion bailout, let the bonuses FLOW, they performed they got $700 billion.

Banking Greed, and they will pay the price, prison terms for many banking CEOs, the public want blood and will get it.

The tipping point? USA has been heading for a tipping point and will continue to do so.

Globalization makes American workers compete with labor costs in China, just visit Walmart

for proof, find many made in USA labels? American consumers don't want to pay the higher price for American labor, look at the US auto makers losses.

Globalization makes for a more efficient capitalism, and higher profits but a lowering of American standards of living, but raising standards of living in the rest of the world. USA has to compete in a global market place, prices, labor.

Walid further states: "Indeed, as economic commentators tell us (including a strong accusation leveled by real estate tycoon Donald Trump on Fox News against OPEC), oil powers are behind the instability that crumbled the will of millions of middle class Americans over the past three years. If we go back in time, we can see that oil pricing by OPEC’s hard core shows clearly that US leadership wasn’t able to convince the top producers from the Gulf to give American oil consumers a chance. Most producing regimes replied that demand - mostly from China and India - was putting pressure on production. Pressed by Washington to produce more, the “regimes” alleged it would affect the selling price and thus minimize their profits, but promised they would try to “be understanding” of US needs in energy."

I wouldn't take investment advise from the Donald, ( how many times has he filed bankruptcy?) but lets look at his point. Trump IS NOT an oil economic authority.

"we can see that oil pricing by OPEC’s hard core shows clearly that US leadership wasn’t able to convince the top producers from the Gulf to give American oil consumers a chance."

How could they give Americans a better chance? Sell to America below market price?

Increase supply? They have, but maybe they could have increased it more? But not by much.

Or maybe they could reduce demand???

What did Donald want them to do? Lower prices? Lets start with the Huge Oil Cos here in USA lowering prices first. If we can get them to lower prices then maybe we can get OPEC to lower prices.

And the Donald said "producers discretion over price".

OPEC has limited control over price, price is determined by supply and demand for the most part.

Remember 1973 oil embargo, they just quit selling oil, the long lines at the gas stations?

In order to raise the price of oil they had to cut production way down, stop all delivery to USA.

It was a disaster for Opec.

Following the embargo, higher oil prices instigated new avenues for energy exploration or expansion including Alaska, the North Sea, the Caspian Sea, and Caucasus.^[17]

Saudi Arabia, trying to gain back market share, increased production and caused downward pressure on prices, making high-cost oil production facilities less profitable or even unprofitable.

...the move away from oil consumption to alternate energy sources. OPEC had relied on the famously limited price sensitivity of oil demand to maintain high consumption but had underestimated the extent to which other sources of supply would become profitable as the price increased. Electricity generation from nuclear power and natural gas, home heating from natural gas and ethanol blended gasoline all reduced the demand for oil.

When reduced demand and over-production produced a glut on the world market in the mid-1980s, oil prices plummeted and the cartel lost its unity. Oil exporters such as Mexico, Nigeria, and Venezuela, whose economies had expanded in the 1970s, were plunged into near-bankruptcy, and even Saudi Arabian economic power was significantly weakened.

The 1973 embargo could be called economic terrorism, but currently we would need to see a sharp reduction in supply, or prices increase during a reduction of demand.

What are the solutions to economic terrorism?

Lets think out side the box.

During the 1973 embargo OPEC-member states in the developing world withheld the prospect of nationalization of the companies' holdings in their countries. Most notably, the Saudis acquired operating control of Aramco, fully nationalizing it in 1980 under the leadership of Ahmed Zaki Yamani. As other OPEC nations followed suit, the cartel's income soared.

One option would be to "Worldize" the oil reserves, just like they Nationalized the Oil Cos.

( Another war. )

Other options switch American autos to natural gas, with refueling stations at home, tapped in to the gas furnaces. $2 or $3 gallon equalivant.

Require solar or wind power for all homes to cut oil consumption.

But if discovered it could be dealt with.

Gerald

Do these charts show OPEC using oil for economic terrorism.

I don't think so, what do you think?

Walid further says:

"Ayman Zawahiri called expressly and repetitively on the public to sell their US dollars and buy gold instead (Be’u al dullar washtaru al zahab). These were stunning statements ignored by most analysts at the time but that are making sense today. He predicted a collapse in the infidels’ economy, starting from American markets. Was he a part of the lobbying effort in the OPEC game? Most likely not, but he seems to have been privy to the game, having insiders in the Wahhabi radical circles in the Peninsula: in the end there are too many political signs to dismiss and the analysis of price warfare is too evident to ignore."

The GWOT could account
for the price of gold increase.

I don't see conclusive evidence of any Economic Terrorism.

But Lack of proof isn't proof of Innocence.

Gerald

Series 7 and 13

Some quotes excerpted from Wikpedia

.

Internet Anthropologist Think tank said to move to cash on 9,18,08 at Dow 10,609 ""Cash may be king. This is going to get VERY very UGLY.""

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Attack on World Bank.G

HOW BAD IS THE ECONOMIC PROBLEM, VERY bad

.

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Major World Paradigm Shift

Wheat prices:


Image via WikipediaPeak oil and its effects on the shape of USA's future Military forces.

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum production is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline. If global consumption is not mitigated before the peak, an energy crisis may develop because the availability of conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically. M. King Hubbert first used the theory in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His logistic model, now called Hubbert peak theory, has since been used to predict the peak petroleum production of many other countries, and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures.



Something this chart doesn't show is the relationship of Oil Price to increasing demand and decreasing supply.

The increasing price of oil has a multiple effect on the price of food, in terms of fertilizer, and production costs and delivery costs.

We have see this already in the price of wheat from $3.75 a bushel to a high of over $12 a bushel.

There are psyops in play now blaming USA for the price increases in food, and starvation in some countrys.

USA must mount its own major internet operation explaining the source and cause of these prices increases.

Or we face a "FOOD" al Qaeda in our future, and a hungry man is much easier to recruit to insurgency.

The social destabilization caused by the lack of affordable basic life needs, food, shelter ( heating ) and transportation will cause civil wars and the over throw of many third world governments.

Some will be USA allies which may call the USA to defend these regimes, which portends more of the same warfare as we have in Paki and Iraq.

Globalization will also contribute the the decline in living standards in America, and severe stress on the social security systems as basic living costs continue to escalate.

The Military paradigm for the foreseeable future will be small wars with major threats from non state entities seeking nuclear arms.

Insurgents with starving families will be a formidable adversary and al Qaeda has established the paradigm for 5GW.

USA needs to be in the planning stages to handle this new paradigm in the form of cheap food stuffs and Military counter measures.

We can see it comming, What are we going to do to prepare?

Winning their hearts and minds is eaiser and cheaper than killing them.

USA's "hearts and minds" paradigm is in absymial disarray.
A fundemental basic requirrment is communication, currently the Google translation engine, doesn't cover many of the most critical languages
needed most right now, Pashton, and Persian.

USA can't win hearts and minds if they can't talk to them en mass.

Gerald
Internet Anthropologist, ad Magnum

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