The sky is falling in Afghan

A journey into Taliban-controlled Afghanistan

By NIR ROSEN of the Rolling Stone mag.

Analysis :By Gerald

From Internet Anthropologist Think Tank

Oct 30, 08

Great article, but naive, in its understanding of the 'Stan' situation.

Some great insights into the Taliban, operations, motivations, beliefs and paradigm.

Our Paradigm Intel forecasts some interesting points.

The world wide depression which is just begining , will be blamed on what ever Government

is in control, right now the Pakis think their economic decline is the fault of the Government

at war with the Taliban.

Now I am not suggesting this, but if USA pulled out the Taliban would be blamed for the economic decline during the depression, but as it is now the Government and the USA will be blamed.

OPEC is headed towards a rachetting paradigm, part of OPEC shooting its self in the foot plan.

OPEC let oil prices rise, by not expanding production to keep prices down, while swimming in the profits. But prices go so high many poor countries can't afford the oil, reducing pressure, and cutting demand, and the price has slipped from $147 BBl to $62 bbl yesterday.

OPEC Countries talk about needing $80 bbl of oil prices, like if they can keep prices in that range

they can make it a go economically.

The other half of that equation is volume, they have to sell close to their peek volume to keep

their economies a float at $80 a bbl. Well as the depression commences, volume demand will fall.

So cutting production at some point becomes counter productive, and raising prices by lowering production will just prolong and expand the World depression. Further cutting demand.

So they will cut production raising prices and more countries will buy less and less oil as the depression deepens reducing demand lowering oil prices again, at some point OPEC countries will reach a point

they can no longer cut production and remain solvent or stable.

At some point OPEC will realize the only way out is to raise production, and spur world wide recovery

with cheap oil.

The Chinese are also charter members of the shoot your self in the foot club.

( USA was the founding member )

China has huge cash surpluses, which the world needs, and at some point the Chinese will grow a set of balls and rescue the world economic system as the world and China sinks into a world depression.

And the USA feds need to get all deratives and sub-prime paper out of money markets.

This will bring back bank confidence.

Increasing FDIC insurance to $250k with out increasing FDIC reserves is meaningless.

Putting some congressional whores, lobbyist and Banks CEO's in prison for the sub-prime mess and violation of usury laws will go a long way towards restoring confidence, and repealing the new bankruptcy laws the bank corps use against their victims would be a big confidence restorer.

The article points out the problem the US Military have in dispensing law and order.

They traditionally have been in the business of taking out Armies.

That Paradigm is failing for the US Army.

We saw that in Iraq, They beat the Iraqi armies and stood ready to do battle with any remaining army remnants, but didn't stop the looting, "not our Job".

In Afghan ran out the Taliban, but let the war lords, pre-Taliban regime, take over again as crininals and corruption lead the way.

The US Military does not dispense criminal and civil justice.

The Taliban does dispense civil and criminal justice.

When the Umma need a court they turn to the Taliban.

USA is not offering much of an alternative.

If a civil servant turns criminal the US Military won't do much.

The Taliban will try him.

Something in the article that surprised me was that the Taliban don't like the Taliban.

Competing commanders shoot each other, Taliban members themselves were advising a

divide and conquer plan against the Taliban.

The Taliban admit they have declared open war on civilians.

And you don't have to be an American spy to get beheaded,

one can get beheaded for co-operating with the Americans.

Thats got to be hard on the Ummah.

The Taliban get support of the civilians/ummah by religion, patroitism, money or they kill you.

Thats a Hell of a risk /reward ratio paradigm.

US Forces have to provide enough troops to drive out the Taliban and occuppy Afghan, under

Afghan Gov. control, and provide safety and security, and law and order, justice, courts.

And if the appointees turn criminal, arrest them.

Yes I know about the legal problems this paradigm entails but if the US doesn't provide these services the Taliban will. And if the people don't have security then the Taliban will just return and kill them for working with the Americans.

The Afghan people don't want the Taliban, but don't have a choice, bend to the will of the Taliban

or risk beheading, being shot or killed by suicide bombers.

You put a gun to my familes head and I'll vote for the Taliban.

The ummah will tell you the Taliban are good and they want the Taliban,

while the Taliban gun is in the shadows.

Provide the whole ummah with security and the Taliban will die, the Ummah will kill it.

General David Petraeus has the paradigm he developed it in Iraq,

and current paradigm intelligence indicates it will also work in "Stan".

Gerald
We are developing more anthropological papers based on the discoveries in his article.
Check back G

Iran's options ( Memri )

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