The sky is falling in Afghan

A journey into Taliban-controlled Afghanistan

By NIR ROSEN of the Rolling Stone mag.

Analysis :By Gerald

From Internet Anthropologist Think Tank

Oct 30, 08

Great article, but naive, in its understanding of the 'Stan' situation.

Some great insights into the Taliban, operations, motivations, beliefs and paradigm.

Our Paradigm Intel forecasts some interesting points.

The world wide depression which is just begining , will be blamed on what ever Government

is in control, right now the Pakis think their economic decline is the fault of the Government

at war with the Taliban.

Now I am not suggesting this, but if USA pulled out the Taliban would be blamed for the economic decline during the depression, but as it is now the Government and the USA will be blamed.

OPEC is headed towards a rachetting paradigm, part of OPEC shooting its self in the foot plan.

OPEC let oil prices rise, by not expanding production to keep prices down, while swimming in the profits. But prices go so high many poor countries can't afford the oil, reducing pressure, and cutting demand, and the price has slipped from $147 BBl to $62 bbl yesterday.

OPEC Countries talk about needing $80 bbl of oil prices, like if they can keep prices in that range

they can make it a go economically.

The other half of that equation is volume, they have to sell close to their peek volume to keep

their economies a float at $80 a bbl. Well as the depression commences, volume demand will fall.

So cutting production at some point becomes counter productive, and raising prices by lowering production will just prolong and expand the World depression. Further cutting demand.

So they will cut production raising prices and more countries will buy less and less oil as the depression deepens reducing demand lowering oil prices again, at some point OPEC countries will reach a point

they can no longer cut production and remain solvent or stable.

At some point OPEC will realize the only way out is to raise production, and spur world wide recovery

with cheap oil.

The Chinese are also charter members of the shoot your self in the foot club.

( USA was the founding member )

China has huge cash surpluses, which the world needs, and at some point the Chinese will grow a set of balls and rescue the world economic system as the world and China sinks into a world depression.

And the USA feds need to get all deratives and sub-prime paper out of money markets.

This will bring back bank confidence.

Increasing FDIC insurance to $250k with out increasing FDIC reserves is meaningless.

Putting some congressional whores, lobbyist and Banks CEO's in prison for the sub-prime mess and violation of usury laws will go a long way towards restoring confidence, and repealing the new bankruptcy laws the bank corps use against their victims would be a big confidence restorer.

The article points out the problem the US Military have in dispensing law and order.

They traditionally have been in the business of taking out Armies.

That Paradigm is failing for the US Army.

We saw that in Iraq, They beat the Iraqi armies and stood ready to do battle with any remaining army remnants, but didn't stop the looting, "not our Job".

In Afghan ran out the Taliban, but let the war lords, pre-Taliban regime, take over again as crininals and corruption lead the way.

The US Military does not dispense criminal and civil justice.

The Taliban does dispense civil and criminal justice.

When the Umma need a court they turn to the Taliban.

USA is not offering much of an alternative.

If a civil servant turns criminal the US Military won't do much.

The Taliban will try him.

Something in the article that surprised me was that the Taliban don't like the Taliban.

Competing commanders shoot each other, Taliban members themselves were advising a

divide and conquer plan against the Taliban.

The Taliban admit they have declared open war on civilians.

And you don't have to be an American spy to get beheaded,

one can get beheaded for co-operating with the Americans.

Thats got to be hard on the Ummah.

The Taliban get support of the civilians/ummah by religion, patroitism, money or they kill you.

Thats a Hell of a risk /reward ratio paradigm.

US Forces have to provide enough troops to drive out the Taliban and occuppy Afghan, under

Afghan Gov. control, and provide safety and security, and law and order, justice, courts.

And if the appointees turn criminal, arrest them.

Yes I know about the legal problems this paradigm entails but if the US doesn't provide these services the Taliban will. And if the people don't have security then the Taliban will just return and kill them for working with the Americans.

The Afghan people don't want the Taliban, but don't have a choice, bend to the will of the Taliban

or risk beheading, being shot or killed by suicide bombers.

You put a gun to my familes head and I'll vote for the Taliban.

The ummah will tell you the Taliban are good and they want the Taliban,

while the Taliban gun is in the shadows.

Provide the whole ummah with security and the Taliban will die, the Ummah will kill it.

General David Petraeus has the paradigm he developed it in Iraq,

and current paradigm intelligence indicates it will also work in "Stan".

Gerald
We are developing more anthropological papers based on the discoveries in his article.
Check back G

Iran's options ( Memri )

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Qods, corruption, plunder, kickbacks

The RGC in Business in a big way!
Since 1979 the Pasdaran has undergone fundamental changes in operations, missions and function. Several indications point out that consequent to assuming most senior political, economic and cultural positions in Iran, the commanders of the Islamic Republic Guards Corps (IRGC) have launched an onslaught to take control/authority of the country's economic affairs.

Case in point, corruption, was handing over three major construction contracts that were handed over to the IRGC. Two of these contracts were in oil and gas exploration, with a total value in excess of $7 billion. The Deputy Commander of "Khatam-al- Anbia Construction garrison" stated recently the number of projects that the IRGC has carried out without any formal biding process since the end of Iran-Iraq war in 1988 is 247.

He said, "We have carried out 1220 nationwide, regional, public, industrial and mining projects and there are 247 projects currently under way." (State-controlled daily, Sharq, June 8, 2006) In addition to being involved in construction, the companies that are affiliated to the IRGC are extensively engaged in monetary ( banking ), movie production, chicken farm, honey bee farm, obtaining representative licenses from foreign firms and trade activities in releasing imported goods, mining, building stones and taking over public lands. Some is making big money.

On several occasions, the IRGC has taken over huge pieces of land in posh areas of major cities, Tehran in particular and by resorting to force, threats of violence and murder, it has suppressed the other government agencies that had claims to these lands. Besides the IRGC, the the Para-military Basij force has entered the field of economics in an unprecedented manner. Subsequent to Ahmadinejad's becoming the president, General Rahim Safavi, the Commander in Chief of the IRGC, while talking about the future roles of the Basij said on July 29, 2005 that in addition to "confronting soft threats facing the country", the Basij would also "assist the government in its construction crusade ( payment for loyalty and violence )." ( State-controlled Fars news agency, July 29, 2005).

New economic onslaught by the IRGC The new onslaught of the IRGC on Iran's economy is focused on carrying out strategic projects in the oil and gas fields. Out of the $7 billion contract handed by the Ahmadinejad government to IRGC without any bidding, one of the contracts that was not in the oil sector was constructing 27 Kilometers of Tehran's metro.


This contract was handed to "Khatam-al- Anbia" garrison in April 2006. Two other projects pertained to huge projects in exploring gas reserves of the country and constructing 900 Kilometers of gas pipelines. These two contracts were about phase 15 and 16 of Pars-Jonobi (southern Pars) gas reserves.

"The contracts for phase 15 and 16 of expansion of southern Pars gas field were signed in Asalouyeh on June 28. The Speaker of the Parliament, the Oil Minister and Deputy Commander of the Khatam-al-anbia garrison signed the agreement. The objectives of phases 15 and 16 of expansion of southern Pars gas fields were exploring 56 million and 600 thousand cubic meters of natural gas daily, 50 million cubic meters of refined natural gas daily, one million tons of Ethan and 50 thousand tons of liquid gas at each phase. The refining of gas in Asalouyeh would be carried out by Khatam-al-anbia garrison. The cost of this project is estimated to be around $2 billion and $97 million. By adding the cost for refining section of the contract, the total cost would be around $2.9 billion. Akbar Torkan, the Director of Pars Oil and Gas Company said: "Upon the orders of the President, the budget for the expansion of phases 15 and 16 of southern Pars fields will be provided from government reserves." (Fars news agency, March 5, 2006) Contract to install nationwide natural gas pipe-line This contract was signed on June 7, 2006 between the Khatam-al-anbia garrison of the IRGC and the Oil Ministry. Rahim Safavi, the Commander in Chief of the IRGC and the Oil Minister were present during the signing ceremony.

According to this contract, the IRGC with a cost of $1.3 billion will transfer natural gas from Asalouyeh to Bandar-Abbas and from there to Sistan-Baluchestan. This pipeline that will end at Iranshahr at the current phase is about 900 Kilometers long. The ultimate objective is to export natural gas to Pakistan by this pipeline. Motive of the IRGC in this economic onslaught In comparison to other similar government institutions like Mostazafan (deprived) Foundation and Qods Razavi, the IRGC is the only institution in Ahmadinejad administration that has obtained the right of extensive activity in the oil and gas sector.
Why have others been cut out of this profitabe project? Whom is making the profits?


The type of economic engagement that the IRGC has engaged in shows that economic plunder is not the only motive. Rather, they want to implement their security and military considerations and views of the ruling faction on the country's economy and its most important sector, i.e., the oil and natural gas sector. In reference to scope of plundering that the commanders of IRGC enjoy as a result of their engagement in the economic affairs of the country, the case in point is when Ahmadinejad introduced Sadeq Mahsouli, a former commander of the IRGC as the candidate for Minister of Oil, it was revealed that Mahsouli had accumulated 50 billion Tomans ( $60 million) during his tenure in the IRGC. What was the kick back to tom?