Pakistan Shift Could Curtail Drone Strikes

By ERIC SCHMITT and DAVID E. SANGER

Published: February 22, 2008

WASHINGTON — American officials reached a quiet understanding with Pakistan’s leader last month to intensify secret strikes against suspected terrorists by pilotless aircraft launched in Pakistan, senior officials in both governments say. But the prospect of changes in Pakistan’s government has the Bush administration worried that the new operations could be curtailed.

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Pakistanis Strike Political Accord (February 22, 2008)

Among other things, the new arrangements allowed an increase in the number and scope of patrols and strikes by armed Predator surveillance aircraft launched from a secret base in Pakistan — a far more aggressive strategy to attack Al Qaeda and the Taliban than had existed before.

But since opposition parties emerged victorious from the parliamentary election early this week, American officials are worried that the new, more permissive arrangement could be choked off in its infancy.

In the weeks before Monday’s election, a series of meetings among President Bush’s national security advisers resulted in a significant relaxation of the rules under which American forces could aim attacks at suspected Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the tribal areas near Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan.

The change, described by senior American and Pakistani officials who would not speak for attribution because of the classified nature of the program, allows American military commanders greater leeway to choose from what one official who took part in the debate called “a Chinese menu” of strike options.

Instead of having to confirm the identity of a suspected militant leader before attacking, this shift allowed American operators to strike convoys of vehicles that bear the characteristics of Qaeda or Taliban leaders on the run, for instance, so long as the risk of civilian casualties is judged to be low.

The new, looser rules of engagement may have their biggest impact at a secret Central Intelligence Agency base in Pakistan whose existence was described by American and Pakistani officials who had previously kept it secret to avoid embarrassing President Pervez Musharraf politically. Mr. Musharraf, whose party lost in this week’s election by margins that surprised American officials, has been accused by political rivals of being too close to the United States.

The base in Pakistan is home to a handful of Predators — unmanned aircraft that are controlled from the United States. Two Hellfire missiles from one of those Predators are believed to have killed a senior Qaeda commander, Abu Laith al-Libi, in northwest Pakistan last month, though a senior Pakistani official said his government had still not confirmed that Mr. Libi was among the dead. A C.I.A. spokesman declined on Thursday to comment on any operations in Pakistan.

SOURCE:MORE:

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NEW WAR PARADIGM.

Three months after May's "information warfare" attacks on Estonia, computer security experts continue to scrutinize the event for clues to the future of digital conflicts.

Israeli security expert Gadi Evron, who helped the Estonians with their response, argued here at Chaos Communication Camp, following similar speeches at other recent gatherings, that the attacks were far more akin to a "cyber-riot" than to actual warfare.

The May events followed the Estonian decision to dismantle and move a symbolically significant Russian war memorial in their capital city of Tallinn (Estonia was an unwilling part of the USSR from the end of World War II to the Soviet dissolution). Riots of the local Russian-speaking population resulted, and calls for retaliation quickly spread to Russian blogs.

Many of the early attacks that subsequently overwhelmed Estonia's Web servers, banks, and government email systems were rudimentary, with instructions widely posted on these blogs telling people how to send manual pings to the country's servers. But more sophisticated tools soon were used, with botnets flooding Estonian addresses with traffic anywhere from 100 to 1000 times ordinary levels.Leninmissile2

The Estonians, and much of the world press, initially characterized this as the first true information war. Fingers were pointed towards the Russian government, largely on the basis of IP addresses (probably spoofed) traced to government facilities. For their part, Russian officials hotly denied any involvement.

Evron doesn't downplay the seriousness of the situation – it effectively hamstrung facilities for days in a country far more deeply reliant on Internet infrastructure than is the United States. But he points to the way activity and action spread through the blog community as evidence that this was something very different than a conventional military operation.

"Fighting is not necessarily warfare," he says. "The whole idea of the blogosphere, of online mob psychology, is taking psychological warfare and putting it on the offensive."

Defenders against this kind of attack, which spreads meme-like through an easily inflamed, but not necessarily coordinated online community, need to think more in terms of policing metaphors than military, he says. Crowds without centers need to be controlled and subdued, rather than attacked. Damage must be mitigated, with a focus on defense rather than offense.

So who was ultimately behind the attacks? Evron says portions of the attacks looked suspiciously like there was some central coordination happening; but it's as yet impossible to trace anything back to the government.

More important is the lesson that in future events, cyber-conflicts may best resemble guerrilla battles, or even spontaneous riots, in which the general opponents are known, but the immediate attackers are not.

As for Americans still trying to adapt to asymmetric warfare tactics in Iraq, these lessons may take time to sink in. But it seems certain that Estonia will remain a case study for years to come.

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A; Qaeda communications paradigm shift

Al Qaeda's Dr. Ayman Al-Zawahiri issued a new videotape on Wednesday titled "The Aggression against Lal Masjid".
This message is focused on the clashes between the Pakistan Army and Islamic students at the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Pakistan, in which Al-Zawahiri calls upon Pakistani Muslims to rise up and take revenge against the Pakistani Army and the Pakistani government for their actions against the Lal Masjid mosque. Al-Zawahiri stated: "Muslims of Pakistan: your salvation is only through Jihad".

This 4 minute, 24 second address is the third in seven days, and the 10th this year by Al-Zawahiri.

Process: Al Qaeda's #1, Al-Zawahiri ( binny is DEAD ) is now issuing orders to cells directly over the Internet. As an expedient some now are just audio tapes, with a still pic of Zawahiri.

No need for cammera, Just record his voice and his media arm attaches it to pic in video and broadcasts it over the Internet.

He now has ability to react to events in almost real time, this is the 3rd in 7 days.

With this method he does not even need a connection to the terror cell, or even know whom they are, they will get the broadcast.

Fewer risks than sending a letter or even a messenger.

He records a mesage on a stick recorder and the message is handed off to 3 maybe 4 agents.
Before delivered to his media arm.

Something to note is the message is 24 seconds long....spur of the moment message?

It still takes time to physically move from Zawahiri to his media arm, few min, to turn it to video, and time to upload it to 20 servers, 5 or 6 hours min. to get message out.

He is now able to communicate directly anywhere in the world, as the news also picks up his messages and brosdcasts them, And he doesn't even need to know whom he is talking to.
I fact his message could sprout "home grown" cells on demand.

Or put sleeper cells into operation.

Taking out his media arm continually becomes more inportant, destroying his Command and control means.

G

Analysis:Zawahiri's tape: Major Paradigm shift

Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri's latest tape is a tacit admission, that Bin Laden is DEAD.

During the course of his segments Zawahiri continually laments the ceding of four-fifths of Palestine, and again voices his anger at Hamas for entering into negotiations and abandoning Shari’a, and warns it to not fall into the same trap as former PLO leader, Yassir Arafat, giving up everything before allegedly being poisoned.

Zawahiri also attacks the Egyptian regime and its prisons, and questions the Muslim Brotherhood’s position on peace initiatives and acting as its progency, Hamas, has done in regard to Palestine. ( From SITE )

This is a Major Paradigm shift for AQ.

He "laments", he "voices anger". He does not issue an order, a command, or Fatwa against Hamas.

He "questions the Muslim Brotherhood’s position", again no orders, threats, he is trying to communicate, negotiate, make a connection.

This is a major paradigm shift for Al Qaeda. They are moving into a new phase, consensus.

Before al Qaeda just killed those that disagreed or didn't follow al Qaeda's orders.

NO orders here, he is Questioning...

They have expended maximum force and efforts in Iraq for Minimum results.

al Qaeda also cannot maintain this level of engagement.

And they are seeking allies.

Zawahiri knows al Qaeda have not won anything in 5 years, of maximum effort.

There is not an Unlimited supply of suicide bombers.
And their cadre are 3rd and 4th Level commanders, from death and arrests.

And current field commanders are second Bench as evidenced by the Brittish bombings.

His only hope is to ally, continue to recruit 3rd rate home grown terrorists, and hope to get a Nuke.

Most of his friends are Dead, can't see his family, always hiding and wondering who is going to give him up.

He is depressed, and using mood elevators.

al Qaeda's internal clock / momentum is running down.

A Massive strike on their web sites would further Isolate them.

USA still has to mount a popular counter force on the Internet or even field a "social change engine".

Lots to do...

Gerald