Analysis:Zawahiri's tape: Major Paradigm shift
Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri's latest tape is a tacit admission, that Bin Laden is DEAD.
During the course of his segments Zawahiri continually laments the ceding of four-fifths of Palestine, and again voices his anger at Hamas for entering into negotiations and abandoning Shari’a, and warns it to not fall into the same trap as former PLO leader, Yassir Arafat, giving up everything before allegedly being poisoned.
Zawahiri also attacks the Egyptian regime and its prisons, and questions the Muslim Brotherhood’s position on peace initiatives and acting as its progency, Hamas, has done in regard to Palestine. ( From SITE )
This is a Major Paradigm shift for AQ.
He "laments", he "voices anger". He does not issue an order, a command, or Fatwa against Hamas.
He "questions the Muslim Brotherhood’s position", again no orders, threats, he is trying to communicate, negotiate, make a connection.
This is a major paradigm shift for Al Qaeda. They are moving into a new phase, consensus.
Before al Qaeda just killed those that disagreed or didn't follow al Qaeda's orders.
NO orders here, he is Questioning...
They have expended maximum force and efforts in Iraq for Minimum results.
al Qaeda also cannot maintain this level of engagement.
And they are seeking allies.
Zawahiri knows al Qaeda have not won anything in 5 years, of maximum effort.
There is not an Unlimited supply of suicide bombers.
And their cadre are 3rd and 4th Level commanders, from death and arrests.
And current field commanders are second Bench as evidenced by the Brittish bombings.
His only hope is to ally, continue to recruit 3rd rate home grown terrorists, and hope to get a Nuke.
Most of his friends are Dead, can't see his family, always hiding and wondering who is going to give him up.
He is depressed, and using mood elevators.
al Qaeda's internal clock / momentum is running down.
A Massive strike on their web sites would further Isolate them.
USA still has to mount a popular counter force on the Internet or even field a "social change engine".
Lots to do...
Gerald
During the course of his segments Zawahiri continually laments the ceding of four-fifths of Palestine, and again voices his anger at Hamas for entering into negotiations and abandoning Shari’a, and warns it to not fall into the same trap as former PLO leader, Yassir Arafat, giving up everything before allegedly being poisoned.
Zawahiri also attacks the Egyptian regime and its prisons, and questions the Muslim Brotherhood’s position on peace initiatives and acting as its progency, Hamas, has done in regard to Palestine. ( From SITE )
This is a Major Paradigm shift for AQ.
He "laments", he "voices anger". He does not issue an order, a command, or Fatwa against Hamas.
He "questions the Muslim Brotherhood’s position", again no orders, threats, he is trying to communicate, negotiate, make a connection.
This is a major paradigm shift for Al Qaeda. They are moving into a new phase, consensus.
Before al Qaeda just killed those that disagreed or didn't follow al Qaeda's orders.
NO orders here, he is Questioning...
They have expended maximum force and efforts in Iraq for Minimum results.
al Qaeda also cannot maintain this level of engagement.
And they are seeking allies.
Zawahiri knows al Qaeda have not won anything in 5 years, of maximum effort.
There is not an Unlimited supply of suicide bombers.
And their cadre are 3rd and 4th Level commanders, from death and arrests.
And current field commanders are second Bench as evidenced by the Brittish bombings.
His only hope is to ally, continue to recruit 3rd rate home grown terrorists, and hope to get a Nuke.
Most of his friends are Dead, can't see his family, always hiding and wondering who is going to give him up.
He is depressed, and using mood elevators.
al Qaeda's internal clock / momentum is running down.
A Massive strike on their web sites would further Isolate them.
USA still has to mount a popular counter force on the Internet or even field a "social change engine".
Lots to do...
Gerald
posted by gerald at
7/04/2007 08:01:00 PM
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