Middle East situation report, Paradigm review.

I want to be careful with this, everything I am reporting here is developed from OSINT and application of Paradigm Intel and process.

Our view of the ME is very favorable: ( Excluding Iran )
al Qaeda in Iraq is moving into a mop up Phase.
They are operating as a Criminal gang now.

About two months ago Intel services were able to pick up the IP's of many of the terrorists involved in the operation of their Internet Activities ( even though they diligently use good proxys ). This includes webmasters and the Islamofacists Hackers.

Locating and interrogating these cadre and collection of their data bases on their PC's and thumb sticks lead to many Military operations against al Qaeda and the Taliban, and a virtual shut down of their Internet operations.
Then Civilians closed most of their terror web sites.
Morale on most jahid forums is the lowest we have ever seen it. ( Life expectancy of Internet Jahidist is 3 years. )

There are many classified operations on going. A major one covered in the press is the operation in Afghanistan, Which has led to a decapitation of all mid-level Taliban cadre.
Even the Taliban see the writting on the wall, and they are looking for a way out.

Biny has admitted al Qaeda has failed in Iraq and he goes begging for any support, which Islam continues to deny him.
KIA are way down, Civilian deaths are way down, unEmployment and inflation in Iraq are way down, key indicators.





Spain seems to be into some heavy secret operations and we don't have a good handle on that yet.

al Qaeda has been wringing suicide bombers out of the Ummah for six years now and abusing them and their souls.

al Qaeda is low on money and man power, and USA is getting closer to Biny and his top level
commanders.

We expect some last hurrahs, and al Qaeda to go out in a fit of violence.
The Taliban maybe converted.

A major worry is the "LAW of unintended Consequences."

Example:
GAP Inc. just discovered some of their goods were made by starving children. ( I know, I don't know if they are really starving, and neither does GAP )
They re-doubled thier efforts to make sure no children are involved in sweat shops making their products.
And there will be a crack down on children working.
While I support these efforts, I want to make sure "starving children" have not been kicked out into the street to starve from the sweat shops.

Starving, dying children is more offensive that having them work in a sweat shop, where they earn money for food.
We have to look at consequences.

Drugs in Afghan and Patki fall into the same category.

While I support the anti-drug efforts in both countries, it would be a mistake to destroy drug crops and force starving farmers into the arms of the Taliban for insurgent wages.

The Taliban had outlawed growing poppies, made it a crime and enforced it.
The Ummah had no one to turn to. So Poppy eradication can be done.

But YOU have to be in CONTROL to enforce it, like the Taliban were.

The timing should be considered, on drug eradication programs.

Everyone is holding their breath to see if its all going to stack up like this.
It won't, there will be surprises and set backs.

But we must try and not trip over the "LAW of unintended Consequences."

Summary:
al Qaeda in Iraq is winding down.
Taliban: very heavy losses and under heavy pressure. And a new paradigm developing al Qaeda V.S. Taliban.***
Terrorist activities on the web have been dealt a very heavy blow.

Propagana arm crippled.
Both al Qaeda and Taliban operating with 3rd and 4th tier cadre.
and under funded.
al Qaeda is being rejected by the Ummah and ratings for the Taliban are dropping among the Ummah also.
Most recent videos have been desperate attempts to try and breathe some life into the terrorists organizations.

They have gone from "issuing orders" to "suggestions" to "begging" and even APOLOGIES.

THEIR MOST RECENT EFFORT is their Internet Jahid against civilian targets, which is also doomed to failure.

The press need to recognize this story will also sell papers.
When did it become "Politically Correct" for American news to be Anti-American?

The turn around has been very quick, sudden and still not fully recognized, past two months.
aQ and the Taliban are experiencing it, going thru it and see it much clearer then other countries.
As time goes on it will become evident.
All the marks are there.

Participant observation, the "process" all point to this paradigm, news seems to confirm it.
Bots continue to collect evidence as it unfolds.

Gerald
Anthropologist
Indepth review:

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