Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Victory in Afpak

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    Monday, June 28, 2010

    Victory in Afpak

    For a Victory in Afpak all the players need to be
    on the same page
    And working for the same objectives.

    USA is after al Qaeda and their
    chief enablers the Taliban.

    Afghan Government is running
    a corruption model  with profits
    as the mainstay, and they use
    the war lords and Taliban for
    this purpose.

    The Taliban are of two minds but
    of one geographic area,  central
    Afghan and Paki. They use the Druand
    line as a stealth border, neither Afghan
    nor Paki will cross it in pursuit of the Taliban.
    And the Taliban cross it like its a chalk line.

    Paki look to Omar of the Afghan Taliban
    to keep Afghd and off balance and will use
    them  to go after the $3 trillion in Minerals
    Paki has been playing the "Great
    Game" with the USA, motive has been
    the $1 Billion in aid from the US for anti-
    terrorism efforts. Of course if the terroists
    were defeated the US might pull out,
    leaving Afpak in a lurch like they did after
    the US defeated and ran off the Taliban
    the first time. The Taliban were chased
    into Paki's ISI's arms.
    2000 Budget Paki:
    revenues: $10 billion

    The value of the US assistance
    to Paki is equal to its COPPER
    Industry, with the 7th biggest
    mine in the world.
    Terrorism is a major industry in
    Paki and large contributor to
    to its revenues via its anti-
    terrorism budget contributions
    from USA.

    Killing OBL and the Taliban
    would also kill the funding for
    that industry.

    US is using anti-insurgent strategy in
    Afghan trying to win the hearts and
    minds, while in Paki they run a anti-
    terrorist Strategy targeting al Qaeda
    and Taliban with drones.

    US is in over drive to set up a sysadmin
    in Afghan while the Afghan leader is
    trying to negotiate some kind of
    settlement with the Afghan Taliban.
    And the Paki ISI has alot of influence
    with the Afghan Taliban as their former
    controllers during the Russian war.

    The tribal cultures in the Pashtoon area
    is dismissive of both the Afghan and Paki
    Governments. And prefer their autonomy.
    And are willing to take up arms to defend
    what they see as their territory.

    Which is problematic for the US as
    the Taliban are assisting al Qaeda
    and al Qaeda is launching attacks
    world wide from Afpak.

    The Taliban don't understand
    that if they wish to be left alone
    then they must leave the rest of the
    world alone. Which is OBL preferred
    paradigm, an ignorant Taliban.

    The discovery of Afghan's minerals  and resulting
    wealth and will cause Paki to use ISI and the Taliban to
    attempt and divert the minerals and wealth
    to Paki's control. All the while using deniable
    operations and cutouts to steal the wealth,
    ISI will use the Taliban to those ends.
    "The new US policy must also take into account Pakistan’s concerns about the future of Afghanistan. It is perturbed not only by the growing Indian activism in Afghanistan but also by the threat of anarchy in Afghanistan, which can make this country the site for a proxy war by various countries ( and terrorists.G ) in the region. A turbulent and strife-ridden Afghanistan threatens Pakistan’s internal security and stability."

    There is a way to get everyone on one page.
    Find the equivalent minerals in Paki.

    The country has immense reserves of various minerals and natural resources. Important minerals found in Pakistan are gypsum, limestone, chromites, iron ore, rock salt, silver, gold, precious stones, gems, marble, copper, coal, graphite, sulphur, fire clay, silica. The salt range in Punjab Province has the largest deposit of pure salt found anywhere in the world. Balochistan province is a mineral rich area having substantial mineral, oil and gas reserves which have not been exploited to their full capacity or fully explored, recent government policies have begun to develop this region of the country and to tap into the immense resources found there. The province has significant quantities of copper, chromite and iron, and pockets of antimony and zinc in the south and gold in the far west. Natural gas was discovered near Sui in 1952, and the province has been gradually developing its oil and gas projects over the past fifty years.[2]
    Major reserves of copper and gold in Balochistan's Reko Diq area have been discovered in early 2006. The Reko Diq mining area has proven estimated reserves of 2 billion tons of copper and 20 million ounces of gold. According to the current market price, the value of the deposits has been estimated at about $65 billion, which would generate thousands of jobs.
    The discovery has ranked Rekodiq among the world's top seven copper reserves. The Rekodiq project is estimated to produce 200,000 tons of copper and 400,000 ounces of gold per year, at an estimated value of $1.25 billion at current market prices. The copper and gold are currently traded at about $5,000 per ton and $600 per ounce respectively in the international market. [2]
    North West Frontier Province accounts for at least 78% of the marble production in Pakistan. Pakistan is home to some of the most finest and purest grades of marble, granite and slate found in the world. Much of the grades A Marble that is exported out of European countries like Italy actually have their origins in Pakistan which previously lacked fine polishing and processing machinery. The Government has taken steps to invest in this crucial sector with the recent establishment of a Marble City within Balochistan. [3]
    The Federal Bureau of Statistics provisionally valued this sector at Rs.211,851 million in 2005 thus registering over 99% growth since 2000.

    But is it $3 trillion dollars?
    How to find the Paki minerals?

    Afghan and Paki would need peace
    to exploit the mineral wealth, to mine

    Investors if they can be induced to
    invest in the middle of a terrorist war
    will want a substantial premium.
    "A few high-risk investors are sufficiently intrigued by the country’s potential to take an early look. JP Morgan, for instance, has just sent a team of mining experts to Afghanistan to examine possible projects to develop.
    “Afghanistan could be one of the leading producers of copper, gold, lithium and iron ore in the world,” said Ian Hannam, a London-based banker and mining expert with JP Morgan. “I believe this has the potential to be transforming for Afghanistan.”"

    Paki is in a position to get Omar
    to pull in its horns in Afghan and
    crush the Taliban in Paki if there
    was sufficient mineral wealth
    to be gained from peace.
    Paki has offered to replace US
    if US withdraws.

    Further incentive could be gained
    by offering the Pashtoons their
    own country. No more stealth borders( map)
     and they would have
    an incentive to reduce violence
    in their own Pashtoon country.
    They are already operating
    independently as a defacto
    state rebuffing both the Afghan
    and Paki Governments.MAP

    Operating in the heartland of the Pashtun Tribe.
    Bring it home to the Taliban.
    All because of the al Qaeda cult.
    #1 is Kandahar, Afghanistan a US major push.
    #2 is N and S Waziristan, Paki Army major push.
    Time for a Joint Af-Pak Mil cross border force.

    Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Taliban under Crushing pressure

    And if some Mineral wealth
    was found in the Pashtoon area
    they would have further incentive
    to bring peace to the area to attract

    This is doable if you align the motives
    and incentives for all parties,  Taliban;
    East and West, and the Pashtoons,
    Afghan, Paki, USA.

    Bin Laden is trying to get everyone
    on the same page, changed his focus
    to Palestine.!!

    Very few goals at cross purposes.
    All working towards the same objective.
    No easy way out of Afghanistan BY
    Dr Hasan-Askari Rizvi.

    Internet Anthropologist


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