Missing weapons in the GWOT

NEFA's most recent White paper,
By Claudio Franco.
The Evolution of the Taliban in Pakistan during the February-May 2008 Period: The Peace Accord Era

confirms our Paradigm Intel in our earlier posts.

$10 billion UDS Great Game.

Paki and the Great Game.

The paper also points to the need of a Cultural matrix, outlining groups affiliations, political, religious, military, tribal and based on actions.
This would provide the crucial data for a "Social Change Engine" SCE.

We have excerpted the critical paradigms from the paper.

"There are several elements confirming Islamabad's will to replicate the 1980s scenario in
terms of administering an Islamist guerrilla force focused on Afghanistan. If successful,
Islamabad would have managed, in the span of five years, to turn a potentially lethal phenomenon into a proxy army whose primary raisons d'etre are attacking and destabilizing Afghanistan, while maintaining the level of security threat needed in order to perpetuate western funding and military aid.".......

"It does make sense that the Pakistanis might be working on the possibility of a long-
standing truce at home, coupled with a non-interference clause concerning the group's
activities in Afghanistan. This is not only a credible scenario, but a re-enactment of the
old PPP policy of "anything goes across the border if Pakistan is left in peace".".......

In the words of Maulvi Omar, TTP deputy in Bajaur and prominent TTP spokesperson, al-
Qaida and the TTP/Taliban are two faces of the same coin; the former is fighting "infidels"
on the international front, while the latter is devoted to Jihad within the Pak-Afghan
region. The integration of the two entities started with the arrival of Usama bin Laden in
Kandahar in 1996 as an honored guest of the Taliban leadership......

The Taliban insurgency cannot be regarded exclusively as a military phenomenon, as the
problem is rooted in the peculiar fabric of segments of Pakistani society, a context where
a Muslim Brotherhood-type Islamization process coexists with the instinctively
conservative stances of tribal Islamism, thus producing ideal conditions for Islamist
militancy to exist and proliferate. Pakistan is a complex country and by no means can be
described as an Islamist society, but Western-style secularism is limited to the urban areas,
and the potential recruiting basin for Islamists is exceptionally vast. Militancy has become
a national problem in the span of five years, and today the Taliban can rely on a network
spanning two countries and two worlds; from the metropolitan setting of Karachi to the
dust and mud-brick houses of North Waziristan, the Taliban are operating and raising
funds among the business community and the middle classes. The insurgents are not
perceived as criminals or terrorists, notwithstanding years of propaganda funded mostly
with Western resources, but as underdogs fighting for a just cause. They are perfect
material for zakat (Muslim charitable tithe) donations, in other words, and are certainly
regarded as legitimate political actors, if not as "Muslim heroes". It is worth pointing out
that we are not describing a world of undercover fundraising and murky donors, but of
perfectly legitimate businessmen who may, at times, donate to charities that are loosely
connected to the movement. By and large, the insurgency is not perceived as damaging, and the Taliban's well-tested formula of law, order, and pious demeanor is working wonders in remote areas like Swat, Bajaur, and Waziristan, where secular politics is perceived as a synonym of "corruption" and religious insurgencies are a cyclic occurrence. Western policy-makers should remember that religious insurgencies along the border have been a regular occurrence when inspired by a foreign enemy....."


Mangal Bagh'S position is extremely similar to what the radical Islamists preach. Every pious Muslim [benefited from Bhutto's death]. Because our Prophet (peace be upon him) said that those under the rule of a woman would better be underneath the earth than above it. Therefore, I believe that her death was a blessing for all Muslims, who were saved from being under
the rule of a woman.".....

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The OSINT is available for an effective SCE, the motivations are understood, and the players are known. To this point psyops and the "Info War" actions have been piece meal, and dis-jointed.

There are handles and leverages, a matrix and SCE will disclose fulcrums to move the antagonists. and give the protagonists direction and insight and paradigms that work.

Missing weapon on GWOT, the SCE.

Worst case: If we do nothing, or continue with current paradigm; Taliban establishes a place in the Paki Government, and gains control.


Gerald
Internet Anthropologist Think Tank.

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