US paradigm in Afpak, no end game.

Paradigm errors:

US listed 2011 as the start of something.
But it has not materialized, there still is
NO program, objective identified end state
and how to get there. 10 yrs in, and still no
pardigm.

Pakistan sees this and is keeping all options
open, including paling up with insurgents.
And the West often doesn't realize, while
Pakistan, the ISI can turn on the Taliban,
they don't really have an off switch.

Inside the Pakistan Paradigm:
http://warintel.blogspot.com/2011/03/inside-afpak-paradigm.html

Why Pakistan will not go after the terrorist sanctuaries
in Paki.
http://warintel.blogspot.com/2011/01/paki-wont-go-after-sanctuarys.html

This trying to walk the middle of the road,
put ISI in its current predicament Vis-à-vis OBL kill.
Forcing them into a position of incompetence or collusion.
And the Paki Gov has been in a fit of pique since.
Choice of loosing face or integrity.

Current paradigm forecasts the mess will be
dumped on to the CIA, and a covert ops war,
with huge drone program.
Drone offensive much more successful than US knew - Internet ...

However the law of untended consequences,
provides some saving grace.
The build up of Afghan Mil, Police and
Frontier corps. is arming and training around
200,000 Afghans.
Which is not sustainable with any given future
expected budget.
And some of the Afghan people have shown
remarkable resistance to the Taliban with small
local militias.
Our trust and belief in the Afghan peoples themselves
exceeds that of trust in the Gov.
And with this training they maybe able to defend themselves
and their towns.
Bringing the Taliban into Afghan Gov. is a huge
mistake, they will be the party intimidating other
into voting their way, by assassinations, and private
killer armys.
THE TALIBAN HAVE NO HONOR.

The Afghani people may get the training to defeat
the Taliban sent by Pakistan ISI.

2014 is the date for scheduled start of the pull out,
but there is no workable solution to the insurgent
problem on the books, and Pakistan is counting on that.

PART II:
The silence of al qaeda and the Taliban regarding
OBL death is deafening.
We think they have gone to ground afraid of
attacks on the rest of the leadership.

If these attacks are not forth coming we expect
an attack on CONUS.

Obamas recent TV conference about the Immigration
problems left some to be desired.

US as many other countries through history always
prepare for the last war.
And US is prepared for another commercial jet liner
attack. But it make no sense to have my shoes inspected
at the airports while thousands cross at the Mexican border.
With out any inspection.
My fear is not of the Mexicans, but of terrorist.
Some where in the world Mexican drug lords are
meeting with men in turbans, buying drugs, making deals.

The Mexican border is an open back door to America.
Paying the Drug lords for terrorist passage into America is just
the next step up from dealing in heroin.

With OBL dead expect smaller attacks.
Similar to Mumbai.
http://warintel.blogspot.com/2008/11/mumbai-lessons.html
US should expect some of this.

And it is the American Drug war which is funding
the Terrorist.
http://warintel.blogspot.com/2011/02/im-gona-screw-with-your-mind.html

They buy a Kilo of heroin in Afghanistan for $350
and sell it on NYC streets for $80,000.
The increase in price is due solely to the American
war on drugs, which has been a failure.
And is funding the insurgents.

The American border needs to be as secure
as the American Airports.

US still has no end game for Afpak.


Gerald
War Anthropologst

Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Omar knew about 911
Kill him Too.