Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Inside Afpak paradigm

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    Saturday, March 26, 2011

    Inside Afpak paradigm


    PARADIGM INTEL: AL QUADA TALIBAN:



    INSIDE THE PAKI GOVERMENT MIND:

    “Pakistani officials think that if militant groups were not attacking in Afghanistan, they would seek out Pakistani targets.”

    “First, Pakistan believes the Taliban will prevail in the long term, at least in the Pashtun belt most proximate to the Pakistani border. Second, Pakistan continues to define India as its number one threat, and insists that India plays an over-active role in Afghanistan.” Dr. Lavoy also said: “Although Pakistan now identifies both al-Qaida and the Taliban as existential threats,” their “government institutions still support the Taliban” in key ways. That includes the ISI providing “intelligence and financial support to insurgent groups... to conduct attacks in Afghanistan against Afghan government, ISAF, and Indian targets.”

    The ISI that was sponsored by the CIA and the Pentagon is now an antagonising force that they have to rely upon. While being fully aware of the fact that the ISI is playing a double game, giving covert support to the Taliban and other fundamentalist outfits, they have no option but to continue to interact and co-operate with it, at least on paper and as a face saving device.

    The CIA and the ISI are playing an ignominious act of mutual deception. In its desperation, the CIA is trying to create its own parallel espionage network to counter the ISI’s capability to double cross. Raymond Davis was part of this covert operation.

    A crisis-ridden ruling class promotes the prejudices of nationalism, religion, sectarianism, caste, all divisive elements that come from the past. But the Pakistani ruling class has failed to create a genuine united nation state. 



    Taliban is pressuring ISI and Paki Mil to stop drone attacks.
    ISI and the Paki Military are pressuring the Paki Government
    to ease up on the Taliban and protect the Taliban in the Paki
    sanctuarys, and in turn pressure the US to end drone attacks
    on the Taliban.




    Paki is looking for a way to unhook with the US
    and minimize the financial impact.
    And they are looking to hook up with China
    big time, to fill this gap.
    Sales of natural resources etc.
    At that point they can as a nuclear
    power demand US stop using drones
    against the Taliban sanctuarys in Pakistan.


    Supporting article found after I posted this.


    Pakistan Switches Sides, Expanding Arms Allegiance With China and Leaving U.S. Behind

     http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/03/26/switching-sides-pakistan-expands-arms-allegiance-china/#ixzz1HmIKwdF8


    US is in a delema, as they need Afghan to move
    logistics into Afghan to support operations there.
    And expect Paki to cut this route off.

    Defense Secretary Robert Gates visiting praises Russiacooperation on Afghan,Libya,North Korea and Iran. US Preping for Paki break, 
    Looking to use Russia and their influence in region to gain logistics into Afghan.


    INSIDE THE INSURGENTS MIND:
    Old school vs new school:
    Taliban is sending ISI a message killing Colonel Imam, find a way to stop the drone
    attacks in the Taliban sanctuary's in Paki.

    Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) issued a gruesome videotape in the third week of February to confirm the death of retired Pakistan Army Colonel Sultan Amir Tarar, commonly known as Colonel Imam, which was his code name as a long time operative of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

    For 11 years as an agent of the ISI, his fictional name defined the Chakwal-born soldier who wielded enormous influence during the various stages of the Afghan conflict due to his close ties to the mujahideen and the Taliban. He had trained a large number of Afghan fighters battling the Soviet occupation forces; he befriended scores of mujahideen and commanders, including Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Burhanuddin Rabbani, Ahmad Shah Masood and Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani; he had known Afghan Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar; he escorted several US and other western leaders, including the then CIA deputy director and now Defense Secretary Robert Gates, as well as Congressman Charlie Wilson on visits to the mujahideen and functioned as Pakistan’s consul general in Herat, western Afghanistan.

    Ironically, he met a violent end at the hands of the Pakistani Taliban, who have increasingly charted their own course after initially expressing loyalty to Mullah Omar. Appeals for mercy by certain Afghan Taliban commanders including Sirajuddin Haqqani and former Afghan mujahideen and Pakistani religious scholars also failed to move the TTP head, Hakimullah Mehsud, who was seen in the video personally supervising Colonel Imam’s execution. The videotape also provided evidence after months of speculation that Hakimullah Mehsud was alive and kicking – and still in command of the TTP.His kidnapping in March last year was an indication of the generation gap and the splintering of militants of different persuasions presently operating on both sides of the Af-Pak border. In the past, Colonel Imam would have been welcomed and feted as an honoured guest by the Afghan mujahideen and Taliban, and also by some Pakistani militants. But times have changed. The new generation of militants operating under the TTP banner or linked to its like-minded groups considered Colonel Imam as an enemy and wanted to use him as a bargaining chip for the release of fellow militants and ransom money.

    Colonel Imam and Khalid Khwaja used to label the Pakistani Taliban as terrorists and instead shower praise on the Afghan Taliban. As head of a faction of militants that variously described itself as Punjabi Taliban and Asian Tigers, he argued, “It was wrong of them to describe us as terrorists. We, too, are fighting jihad,” while speaking to this writer from Miramshah shortly before he was killed due to the infighting that erupted between different factions of the militants over the issue of kidnapping of Colonel Imam and Khalid Khwaja, and sharing of the ransom money. This stance of theirs regarding the Pakistani Taliban was used as grounds for justifying their murder.

    The Asian Tigers, a name unheard of until then and obviously coined to hide the identity of the kidnappers, claimed responsibility for the kidnappings and said demands had been forwarded to the concerned people without elaborating. It soon emerged that the Punjabi Taliban – or jihadists who had quit their mainstream militant organisations due to the latter’s close links with Pakistan’s security establishment – had linked up with the TTP and were involved in the kidnappings. Usman Punjabi became the link between the militants holding the four men and the outside world. He was the one who had invited the former ISI operatives to North Waziristan and trapped them. In fact, the militant group holding them was led by one Abdullah Mansoor, who had split from the anti-Shiite Lashkar-i-Jhangvi and aligned with the splinter faction Lashkar-i-Jhangvi al-Alami.

    It was after Khalid Khwaja had been executed and a ransom deal for the release of Asad Qureshi was being worked out that militants holding Colonel Imam developed differences among themselves. This resulted in the killing of Usman Punjabi and five of his men at the hands of his former colleague Sabir Mehsud, who belonged to South Waziristan and who had more fighters under his command than the militants from the Punjab. The incident enraged Hakimullah Mehsud, who sent his men to execute Sabir Mehsud and members of his band and take custody of Colonel Imam. Those seeking Colonel Imam’s release were then required to approach Hakimullah Mehsud, who presented tough conditions including the release of his men in the custody of the government and also the payment of ransom. Subsequently, hopes for a deal were raised when reports emerged that Colonel Imam could be freed on payment of ransom. His execution was sudden and shocking for all those trying to negotiate a deal as the talks with the TTP had not broken down yet.

    One fallout of Colonel Imam’s execution is that it has created mistrust and caused a wedge between the TTP and other militants, particularly the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network. Those aware of Colonel Imam’s services to the cause of the Afghan jihad and the Afghan Taliban were clearly unhappy with the TTP and Hakimullah Mehsud and were privately criticising him for executing the former ISI official. In fact, serious doubts have arisen about Hakimullah Mehsud’s agenda after this incident. Though the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network have refrained from publicly condemning Hakimullah Mehsud and the TTP for killing Colonel Imam and Khalid Khwaja, they are unlikely to trust him anymore.




    TALIBAN AL QAEDA PARADIGM:

    With all the attacks on Paki and Afghan populations and leaders the insurgents
    have changed their psyops, no longer promoting the Taliban as good guys,
    as they loose the terrorism power trying to be nice guys.
    They have switched to an anti-American Nationalist propaganda,
    running a very successful psyops program covertly.
    Ahmed Quraishi 

    The paradigm is to stir up more hate towards America
    than there is against the Taliban, which moves them into
    a leadership position with the people, the "lesser" evil.
    With the Government its a terrorist paradigm blow them up,
    kill the politicians and force them to negotiate under pressure.

    It feels like the US has missed this paradigm shift, for all
    the US does in Afpak they are hated, bad or poor PR.

    Posted on the Taliban’s al-Somood web site and translated by the NEFA Foundation – shows.
    “Wars today cannot be won without media,” says Maiwandi. “(Media) is directed to the heart rather than the body. The weapon is directed to the body. If the heart is defeated the battle is won and the body is defeated. In the beginning, with the fall of the Islamic Emirate, the enemy thought that the field was completely open before them, and they spread their lies and falsehoods that they had destroyed the Islamic Emirate and its Mujahideen and that their victory in the land of Afghanistan was complete. All of their resources, especially their media were directed towards changing the ideas of Afghans and injecting defeatist thought into them and instilling in them a petrifying fear of the new occupiers. First through the grace of Allah, subhanahu wa ta’ala, then through the victories of the Mujahideen and their rightly guided leadership; and after defeats were inflicted on the enemy on the field of battle, a media committee was established to contest with the enemy in the (media) field.

    “Therefore, the media ranks of the Islamic Emirate were re-formed under a special committee that reflects the tangible reality on the ground in Afghanistan. Among its most important accomplishments in the beginning period was the inauguration of the Islamic Emirate website under the name ‘Voice of Jihad’.”


    “A report by the American Council of Foreign Relations corroborated Taliban media superiority over the Americans in the media field. The report mentioned one reason the Taliban have moved ahead of the Americans in the media field is that they do not wait for appointed dates to publish news of events, but publish them as soon as they occur.”
    “He added, saying: ‘The Taliban are not only quick to publish news, rather they are also fortunate in the precision and organization in their media work. They translate news of all their military operations as soon as it comes in from Pashtu and Farsi to Arabic and English and it is immediately published on their websites and their online radio ‘Voice of Shari’ah’.’”

    "There have been differences of opinion between low and high level Taliban leaders within Taliban's Quetta Shura, Haqqani network and Taliban's council in Peshawar,"


    US is loosing the Infowar for public opinion, and will go the same way in newly
    revolted regimes if it doesn't get its Infowar ops working.
    US is loosing the infowar in Paki, next loosing infowar in Egypt, Syria, Libya? 

    Binny with edema

    AL QAEDA'S REVOLUTION PARADIGM:
    United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has launched a series of covert operations in the rugged Hindu Kush mountains of Pakistan and Afghanistan following strong tip-offs that al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has been criss-crossing the area in the past few weeks for high-profile meetings in militant redoubts. 

    Bin Laden's meetings, this appears to be the beginning of a new era for a broader struggle in which al-Qaeda, through its Laskhar al-Zil (Shadow Army), will try to capitalize on the Arab revolts and the Palestinian struggle and also revitalize and redefine its role in Afghanistan. 

     Bin Laden is reported to have met with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the legendary Afghan mujahid and founder and leader of the Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan (HIA) political party and paramilitary group, in a militant camp in thick jungle on the fringes of Kunar and Bajaur provinces in Afghanistan. The encounter was publicized by leaks from the HIA's inner circle and the news was circulated within militant camps in Pakistan's North Waziristan tribal area via top-level Pakistani militant commanders in Bajaur. 

    Taliban led by Mullah Omar have always been skeptical about Hekmatyar's intentions, while Bin Laden and some other al-Qaeda leaders view him differently. Hekmatyar's representatives of the HIA have been in direct active negotiations with the Americans and have also brokered limited ceasefire agreements with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces in Afghanistan. 

    Zawahiri therefore promoted the idea of ideological divides within the Muslim world, and encouraged revolts and terrorism to polarize societies to such a point of chaos that they would be unmanageable and amenable to Western intervention. It was believed that such intervention would open the gates for a battle between the West and the Muslim world.

    Like Azzam, Zawahiri is not too dogmatic, but he encouraged narrow ideological views in resistance movements as a strategy to boost revolts against Muslim-majority states. 

     al-Qaeda began a new phase with the Muslim Brotherhood and Palestinian groups to revive its old contacts and establish a new nexus for a joint struggle against Western interests in the Muslim world. 

    Bin Laden's meeting with Hekmatyar and other militant commanders in the Hindu Kush can be seen as a part of this new war in which al-Qaeda aims to involve the whole Muslim nation.

    Hekmatyar's HIA has been a part of al-Qaeda's Laskhar al-Zil, which comprises elite guerrillas. Possibly, al-Qaeda aims to revitalize its operations in Afghanistan, and throughout the world, along with mainstream resistance groups (sons of the soil or Ibnul Balad) and in addition to Islamic political parties.

    While fears attached to Bin Laden’s unprecedented visibility and movement for a grand al-Qaeda operation cannot completely be dismissed, it is more possible that al-Qaeda will undertake both worldwide terror operations and join forces with mainstream Muslim groups. 

    Al qaeda has no desire to intervene in the revolutions, it is in line with their paradigm,
    a caliphate including all these countries.
    Al qaeda is planning on attacks against these new governments, terrorism to try and
    force a caliphate they can get into and control.
    They will be attempting to influence these new governments with terrorism, assassinations,
    suicide bombings, blowing up Mosques and market places, an attempted rerun of Afpak.
    And they plan to export this anti-American hate to the newly revolted countries.


    Al Qaeda leader foresaw chance to capitalize on Arab uprisings

    Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://washingtonexaminer.com/news/world/2011/03/al-qaeda-leader-foresaw-chance-capitalize-arab-uprisings#ixzz1HxkPmIFI

    It is correct in its assertion a simple power-sharing arrangement between senior-level Taliban and the regime of President Hamid Karzai is unlikely to bring peace to Afghanistan.
    The Taliban have never had any honor ever, broke every peace treaty with both Afghan and Pakistan.

    It makes sense for an international peacekeeping force to play a major role during the transition period. They should add the caveat said force must be made-up of troops from other Muslim countries – no Western powers should have boots on the ground.



    Afghan's SOUL:
    New Book: "The Taliban Shuffle." by Kim Barker
    Taliban their attempts to use recalcitrant donkeys as suicide bombers" (known as DBIEDs, donkey-borne improvised explosive devices) "only provoked laughter


    On the challenge the U.S. faces in trying to develop a police force in Afghanistan, she writes, "This was a largely illiterate country ... where young men from the provinces didn't know how to lace their boots because they'd never had boots."
    As for Afghanistan's chaotic election process, Barker notes that, in the 2005 parliamentary elections, voters had to choose from 390 candidates: " "... Each candidate had a photograph and a symbol, because many Afghans were illiterate. But creativity ran out, and symbols had to be reused. Candidates were identified as different objects, including a pair of scissors, one camel, two camels, three camels, two sets of barbells, mushrooms, two ice-cream cones, three corncobs, two tomatoes, stairs, a turkey, two turkeys, one eye, a pair of eyes, a tire, two tires, three tires -- to name a few."
    Nor were matters helped by the bad behavior of foreigners, who had brought booze and brothels to Afghanistan. "It was a place (for them) to escape," she goes on, "to run away from marriages and mistakes, a place to forget your age, your responsibilities, your past, a country in which to reinvent yourself. Not that there was anything wrong with that, but the motives of most people were not likely to help a fragile and corrupt country stuck somewhere between the seventh century and Las Vegas."
    And Pakistan has Nukes.
    Article SOURCED FROM:
    US is in the position of killing all the mid level Taliban,
    and winning every military battle and losing the war
    by Taliban Infowar counter forces.
    Just like the Israeli war, where they did
    billions of $$$ of damage and got maybe $10,000
    in damages in pot holes from missiles.
    An effective Infowar means a win even if
    you loose, and cuts military casualties.
    US does NOT have an effective infowar
    in Afpak. The Taliban does.


    The Future for Afpak with this NEW paradigm



    Gerald
    War Anthropologist
    The Guardian: War in Afghanistan is destabilising Pakistan, says president Asif Ali Zardari- 


    "War in Afghanistan is destabilising Pakistan",Asif Ali Zardari, Dumbass,Paki sanctuarys enabling attacks in Afghan,


    .
    .

    posted by gerald at 3/26/2011 07:10:00 PM READ MORE READ OR SUBSCRIBE, Our WAR OSINT on Twitter

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