Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Ahmadinejadization of Iran.

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    Monday, July 13, 2009

    Ahmadinejadization of Iran.


    Ahmadinejadization of Iran.
    By Gerald Internet Anthropologist Think Tank
    07.13.09


    The good-news thinking goes like this: With Mr. Ahmadinejad remaining in office, there is less chance of substantially improved relations between Tehran and Washington, something America's Arab allies feared would undermine their interests. At the same time, the electoral conflict may have weakened Iran's leadership at home and abroad, forcing it to focus more on domestic stability, political analysts and former officials said.

    The counter is the usual: divided at home, Iran will cause trouble abroad to foster regime unity and popular legitimacy.

    Of course, Sunni autocrats can't like the lessons of the Iranian unrest, but their logic runs that Persian Shia can't possibly set any examples for Arab Sunni.


    By Thomas P.M. Barnett

    Best part:

    Moreover, the dramatic video of Iranians being beaten or shot by Basijis has done incalculable damage to Iran's image as the region's most religiously pure and populist state. Iran's allies in the region, including Syria, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Hamas movement in the Palestinian territories, also seem likely to suffer a blow to their credibility, and perhaps to their financing, if the election crisis is resolved with heavy suppression or an extended standoff with the opposition, analysts said.

    The Big Bang revived!

    Yes, Ahmadinejad and the Guards survive in Iran thanks to years of stuffing loyalists into top positions and consolidating the power of the presidency, but there are still powerful centers of gravity outside their reach: the parliament, the population, imams breaking with government authority.


    SOURCE:

    Thomas P.M. Barnett believes an Nuclear armed Iran is inevitable.

    And there is not much any one can do about it.

    I disagree with him.
    A nuclear armed Iran maybe inevitable but not for this regime of
    suicidal twelvers.

    Ahmadinejadization of Iran or the
    election theft, was a secret coup d'├ętat .
    Leaving the Supreme leader with dictator like powers,
    and reason for violation Iran's Constitution..

    Israel is at risk, and leaning towards a preemptive strike on Iran's
    nuclear stock piles.

    And Obama leans towards allowing a nuclear Iran and against
    Israel strikes.

    I understand the motive.
    A nuclear Iran will lord it over SA and become a bully to make N.Korea
    look like boy scouts.

    Their reasoning seems clear, I think the protests will eventually over throw.
    the regime, but they need time, and an attack on even just the stock piles
    would give them a couple of more years to work on Regime change.

    And wait for the Iranian economic crash.

    I agree on a nuclear Iran is an inevitability but just not this Regime.
    The protests came as a big surprise to everyone.

    " Nuclear IRAN yes, nuclear regime that is killing its own people is NO"
    and I think it can be sold that way.

    And I think there is the same chance of a regime over throw as
    the chance of the protests......!
    S.A. and Israel are just looking to buy time.

    Afpak is important but maybe a nuclear regime is more of a threat.
    And in view of the 13 Imam paradigm, suicidal.
    USA needs to look at the world threat, not just its own agenda.

    USA is off the mark on this one, Israel has the right idea.
    If this Iran regime get a nuke it will be a well deserved legacy for Obama.
    And he will go down in the history books like the guy in the English Gov.
    that tried to pacify Hitler, "PEACE IN OUR TIME".
    The Iranian insurgency will gain momentum as they crack down harder
    and harder.

    And there is plenty of room for spin, this regime brought on the attacks
    with nuclear threats against Isr.

    With the right work, this could be a bonus for the Iranian Insurgence.

    I'm afraid the US isn't prepared for a successful insurgency,
    And going to be caught off guard or on the wrong side, ie anti-Israel.

    As USA in Poland,

    An nuclear regime can be stopped.
    An nuclear Iran can't be,it will happen, just not this regime.

    But the two choices are miles apart in USA security terms.
    USA is making the wrong choice in my book.

    USA COULD HIT 20,000 TARGETS IN 24 HRS.

    THE QUESTION CENTERS AROUND INTEL AND HOW CLOSE IRAN IS TO TESTING A NUKE.
    I DON'T THINK THEY WILL TEST TILL THEY HAVE ENOUGH FOR TWO BOMBS.
    ONE TO TEST
    ONE FOR OFFENSE.

    IF THE INTEL IS AVAILABLE AND LOCATIONS ARE KNOWN,
    THE CHOICE COULD BE GO FOR A STRIKE.

    OUR PARADIGM INTEL SAYS LOCATIONS ARE KNOWN,
    ACTIONS ARE KNOWN AND
    C2 IS COMPROMISED.

    OBJECTIVE IS DOABLE BUT IT DOES ONLY BUY TIME
    AND IS JUST PART OF A PROGRAM TO REMOVE A CRIMINAL ROGUE SUICIDAL REGIME IN IRAN..

    ALLOWING THE REGIME TO HAVE NUKES WILL ROCK THE MUSLIM WORLD
    AND TRIGGER A N BOMB RACE, WITH RUSSIA GAINING INFLUENCE
    AND BIG PROFITS AND A SPIRAL LEADING TO A NUKE EXCHANGE
    SOME WHERE SOME TIME WITH Israel.

    I THINK THE CURRENT USA PARADIGM IS FRAUGHT WITH MANY
    UNKNOWN RISKS AND DEBACLE UNPRESIDENTED IN HISTORY.

    JUST HUGE UNKNOWN RISKS VS KNOWN RISKS OF STRIKE ON IRAN.


    Gerald

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