Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Head to Head with our source inside the Beltway:

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    Tuesday, June 30, 2009

    Head to Head with our source inside the Beltway:

    Head to Head with our source inside the Beltway:
    By Gerald, Internet Anthropologist Think Tank

    Looking for Info about how Chinese hackers look at Irans protestors.

    I assume chinese gov backs Iran.

    And how Russian hackers feel about iran

    What do you think about the possibilities of'
    bringing in Russian or chinese hacker to help Iranians?
    ( 2 days after this post Falun Gong announcing
    its helping the Iranian protesters get aroud Gov,
    filters, they have been giving out methods to get
    around China's Great cyber Wall for years and are
    very Good at it , they have lots of experience. ) Story

    Moslem hackers are mostly about defacing web sites.
    I have asked them to help by not defacing web sites with PR
    but putting up news about the protesters on Iranian gov web sites.

    Beijing has an active relationship with Iran but nothing on the order of the Russians who have extensive technicians, oil and nuclear interests all over Iran.

    Iran by far prefers the Russians and Beijing knows it.

    Regarding Taiwan: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had personally approved plans to purchase high-tech electronic monitoring equipment from Taiwan to be used at Iranian border posts. We believe Tehran's security forces obtained high-tech equipment from Taiwan to monitor domestic communications. That's how they found the Iranian freedom bloggers.

    Taiwan imports most of it's oil from Iran, they are major trading partners. Taiwan is Iran's first ranked vendor for electronics, the Taiwanese are major allies of ours and we tend to look the other way on banned electronics.

    So Beijing is in a distant third place behind Russia and Taiwan. Russian (mafia) hackers have far more access to Iran through Azeri and Tajik servers. I don't think the mainland Chinese hackers are much of a factor.

    Mousavi or Ahmadinejad or Khamenei....same problem for us. Ahmadinejad is a known quantity and there is a lot in the works as far as logistical support for our efforts in Afghanistan. So we are taking a strictly hands-off approach to the protests.

    We know that there will be a nuclear Iran, we need stability there, even if it is repressive. Mousavi has never been our friend either although there are rumors that he has changed his hardline ways, especially about the empowerment of women.

    This is a power struggle between ruling classes in Iran, the protesters are pawns in a much larger game. They are expendable, sad to say.

    The Russians and Chinese have much the same approach, too many business interests to get involved in any way. The only groups supporting the protests are the sunni moslem states and Israelis. And I don't know how they could affect the outcome.

    What an interesting perspective, I want to study that hard.
    My take was, as much as a surprise as the massive marches were,
    there is the same chance for Regime change, but different form 1979.
    The replacement of the supreme leader with a moderate council.

    And a temp. suspension of the nuke program while the new council reviews it.

    I didn't think Obama would allow this regime to have a nuke.
    I expected a strike against the nuke materials and production.

    Good enough to put Iran at least 2 more years off the bomb.
    And two years to work on regime change.

    If the marchers can regain increasing momentum
    I expected regime change.

    When Iran test a nuke they are going to be a "bitch from hell"
    to deal with, N. Korea will look like boy scouts.

    I need to let your perspective sink in and run some tests.

    "logistical support for our efforts in Afghanistan."
    Thats solid, Iran Regime hates the Taliban as much as we do.
    Stems back to the Taliban killing the Iranian Embassy hostages in Afghan.

    Iran helped us target Taliban when we first invaded Afghan.

    The 6 plus 2 UN group, they brought in a map.
    The regime won't kill that logistical support against the Taliban any more than we would.

    We have them boxed and could/can easily spot any nukes they try to deliver any way but by missile. If they built a very thick (12"+) cast lead, no seams and a door with what's called a 1/4-wave-trap door seal, and no residual radiation on the box, they could hide a nuke on a trawler, possibly a sub if it had a hatch big enough which none of them do. Then could convince the crew to go on a suicide mission, flying a neutral countries flag, they could, by a very long shot, make it to Tel Aviv and detonate.

    Here's the fly in the buttermilk:

    NK and Iran are only capable of small yield weapons maybe up to 10 kilotons. To get any significant blast damage from a nuke, you need an airburst at least at 800 feet altitude. Nuke critical mass detonations are not directional, they occur spherically in all directions, with neutron reflectors (tungsten and platinum) that ensure a complete fission. Otherwise you get a dramatically smaller blast wave and the radiation/heat propagation from a ground or sea level detonation would almost entirely be upward, essentially useless. Fallout would be the greatest hazard and scattered plutonium is extaordinarily lethal to breathe.

    The tactical use of a nuke has to have significant damage and you have to have other nukes ready to defend yourself from the guaranteed attack by America and Britain. The political consequence is too drastic to the Mullahs, it would take a true nut-case Hitler-Jim Jones-Bin Laden-Zawahiri, psychotic to do it.

    Yes I agree on all of your nuke hypothesis, except,
    The 13 Imam paradigm, possible State suicide.
    Do they need a missile delivery system?
    My concerns are related to possible suicide bombs, submarine, fishing trawler,
    shipping container or even just setting it off on the Afghan border, or next to Israeli border.

    And there is that shipment from N Korea? The Navy is shadowing.
    Could that be a plutonium kit, for a N. Korean type bomb test.

    I know we test a small percentage of shipping containers.
    And I guessing they have "scanned" the N Korean ship for radiation.
    But the attack on Mumbai, shows the capability to
    move a fishing trawler with in range .

    A two ton bomb is deliverable.

    We know that Iran (uranium) nukes can't be stopped so we are dug in on: not allowing them to export nuke technology, developing a weapons grade laser to knock down any missile delivery systems allowed. Where we still have some opportunity on nukes is to keep Iran from developing a plutonium bomb by stopping the breeder reactor and heavy water facility they want to bring on line in 6+ years, that would be real trouble.

    Just not practical for a lot of technical reasons (mainly weight) to transport a uranium nuke by missile. The Iranians were steered to uranium by us back in 73 and are stuck there. Yes, they can have a nuke but no practical and cheap way to deliver, so they end up blowing themselves up for the benefit of the hysterical press.

    NK developed a plutonium bomb with Russian help and have a barely working bomb, however. The attractiveness of plutonium is that you can (relatively easily) make a small and portable weapon. The trick is getting an implosion-weapon to light off, very difficult. The three edges of the sword are 1. portability (favors plutonium) and 2. (relatively) cheap fissile material (favors uranium) and 3. weapon simplicity and reliability (favors uranium). Blast yield is irrelevant. NK and Iran are both stuck right now.

    Iran is very hungry for technology and Iranians are fed up with the limited access to all electronic communication. To survive the regime has to modernize and we hold the keys to that access to technology.

    The biggest kicker to Iran is opiate addiction, they are by a full percent, the most addicted country in the world. Iran is desparate to work with us on interdiction so we are getting lots of pressure from them and offers of cooperation if opiates are stopped.

    Opiates are destroying their economy and productivity. Most transporters are paid in opiates they then resell. Iran needs us badly on this problemn and we need them, Russians and Brits are also major players as opiates are destroying them also.

    Word is that Obama is morphing into Bush, reality is a dish served very cold.....






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