India the stumbling block to getting the Taliban

India the stumbling block to getting the Taliban.

Understand Paki recent history helps to understand why the Paki Security and intel forces don't wipe out the Taliban.

The forerunners of the Taliban were engaged to fight Russia as a USA proxy.
And USA fell liable to the law of unintended consequents.

And Paki secret services used them in Kashmir as irregular troops.
And Paki secret services still want them available incase of war with India over Kashmir. The Taliban are the secret National Guard for Paki.
While that is not true exactly that is the paradigm.

If Paki had the will they could wipe out most of the Taliban and al Qaeda.
But they don't want to wipe them out just control them. Which is much harder and expensive in KIA.

Wiping out the two terrorist groups would cost them the major part of USA's terrorism funding and would loose a huge Intel asset, and special forces army available for Kashmir problems.

Our Paradigm Intel points to Paki power elite maintaining the Taliban for National Security and economic reasons.

I wonder how many of the Taliban could have bought to fight al Qaeda for the $10,000,000,000.00 USD we paid Paki so far. I think the money has been well spent so far. But I also think Paki know where Bin Laden and Zee are in general.

Paki has been playing the "Great Game" since USA was in the War of 1812.

Paki and the Great Game.

Paki have an informal agreement with al Qaeda to leave each other alone.

Paki Not looking for Biny

But al Qaeda has no integrity and if they, with the Taliban think they can take Paki over, they will try. At which time Paki Army, and Intel will have to take them out, if they can.

Paki's Risk / Reward ratio looks good to them at this point.

And expect them to continue to try and talk and beat the Taliban into submission, or some controable form there of.

And expect Taliban and al Qaeda to exploit any weakness against the Paki Government.

Taliban's military plans

Neither Terrorist group has any integrity, their word is good only until they see a better option, or get a bigger bribe.

If the Paki economy continues its exponential growth, capitalism/ummah will force the Paki Government to crush the violence, in favor of more economic growth.

So far the Government isn't beating the Taliban hard enough to make a difference.

Until this balance tips, expect very little progress against the terrorist in Paki.

Gerald

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