Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Taliban Peace, or Faint?

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    Thursday, April 24, 2008

    Taliban Peace, or Faint?

    Location of Dera Ismail Khan District (highlighted in red) within the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan.Image via WikipediaTaliban Peace, or Faint?

    Mehsud orders Taliban not to attack Pak forces

    * Ghani confirms talks underway with Mehsud

    LAHORE: Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud has ordered his militants not to attack Pakistani security forces henceforth and warned that anyone violating his orders would be punished publicly, Geo News reported on Wednesday.

    According to the channel, Mehsud's announcement, advertised in distributed pamphlets, directed the Taliban to stop offensives in Waziristan, Tank, Gomal and Dera Ismail Khan.

    The pamphlets read that the Taliban should stop provocative activities against the government in an effort to bring peace.

    "Those failing to abide by the orders will be hanged upside down in bazaars," the statement warned.

    Ghani: NWFP Governor Owais Ghani on Wednesday confirmed talks were underway with Mehsud.

    "We are moving on all fronts and making progress," the governor told Daily Times, responding to a question on whether the government was also negotiating a peace agreement with Baitullah Mehsud, the prime suspect in the murder of Pakistan People's Party chairwoman Benazir Bhutto. NWFP Chief Minister Ameer Haider Hoti said he was receiving "satisfactory feedback" from Malakand region after the freeing of Maulana Sufi Muhammad. It was a milestone towards eradicating violence and terrorism, he said while talking to reporters on Wednesday. daily times monitor


    Pakistan is negotiating a new peace agreement with Baitullah Mehsud

    Draft peace agreement is similar to 2006 Waziristan Accord

    The latest peace agreement reads much like the failed 2006 Waziristan Accord, an agreement hailed as the solution to militancy in Pakistan’s tribal areas. The 2006 South Waziristan Accord required the Taliban to eject foreign terrorists and deny them sanctuary and to halt attacks against the government and military. The Taliban were also prevented from establishing a parallel government.

    But the Taliban established the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan and subsequently violated each of the Accord’s conditions. The Taliban immediately began assassinating their rivals under the guise of calling them "US spies." The Taliban established a parallel government complete with sharia courts, taxation, recruiting offices, and its own police forces. The Taliban attacked government forces and captured entire units. Within one year, the Taliban and the government were fighting pitched battles.

    The Taliban expanded its power base into Tank and Dera Ismail Khan and threatened Peshawar. Al Qaeda remained in the region and built 29 training cams in North and South Waziristan. Numerous terror plots against the West were traced back to camps in Waziristan.

    A summary of the draft peace agreement, according to Dawn

    • The Taliban will expel "foreign militants" within one month

    • The Taliban will ensure that terrorist activities will not occur inside Pakistan

    • The Taliban will not allow their lands to be used for anti-state activities

    • The Taliban will not target the government or security forces

    • The Taliban will not damage equipment or property belonging to the government and the military

    • The Taliban will not kidnap military or government officials

    • The Taliban will not attack foreign or local workers participating in aid projects

    • The Frontier Corps will maintain access to roadways

    • The Taliban will not create a shadow government or institutions

    • The Taliban will not interfere with development and humanitarian projects

    • The political administration will verify any violations of the agreement

    • Problems will be resolved through the local political administration

    • The government maintains the right to act if the agreement is violated

    • Both sides will exchange hostages and prisoners after the agreement is signed

    • The Pakistani Army will be withdrawn from the region.
    See The Fall of Northwestern Pakistan: An Online History for more information on the rise of al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan and the peace agreements signed between the government and the Taliban.



    Isn't there a definition of insanity ; something about doing the same thing over and over
    expecting a different outcome, as a symptom of insanity?
    The new Paki Government hasn't felt enough pain yet to see they must negotiate from a position of POWER, Taliban will just play them for Suckers, building their infrastructure
    and recruiting, watch they will demand and get a huge amount of UDS, for some BS.

    Proof: "The Taliban will expel "foreign militants" within one month"

    Prima facia evidence the Taliban does NOT intend to abide by this agreement.
    It also presents a time line for their renewed attacks, ONE MONTH.
    They will just hide the Foreign Militants, out of site, al Qaeda will not allow
    Foreign Militants to be expeled, they would loose control.

    What would indicate they are serious, battles between the Taliban and al Qudea.
    The Taliban are not to that point yet.
    They ae moving in that direction, refusing orders from Omar in Afghan .
    Taliban still have not figured out that the FOX has convinced the dogs to'
    die for them.
    Taliban are still in an re-education, self education phase regarding al Qaeda.

    Short term the Taliban will go on the offensive in about a month, till the new Government feels enough pain and humiliation and deaths, then they will attack the Taliban in earnest, and everything will again be in the same position as last year, under the old Government.
    More suicide bombers, more Paki Military leaders dead, and more civil unrest.

    When the Taliban are near surrender, and fighting al Qaeda: then one can negotiate with them.
    But the EXPECTATION MUST BE they will not stick to any agreement.

    Question is what the Government will do during the truce to improve security.





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