Pakistan going Rogue.

More of our INTEL


Pakistan going Rogue.

Paradigm:

Paki is moving in a definitive direction.
Paradigm Intel points to a terrorist state.

The ISI has had a close working relationship
with the Taliban since the Afghan War with Russia.

They have provided financial support, logistics,
weapons, and intel.

More recently they have provided sanctuary
for Taliban who raid into Afghan.

And along with the Taliban have pressed
of cessation of drone attacks in the area
of the sanctuaries.

To further these ends ISI has exposed the
head of the CIA section in Paki
and taken Davis hostage.

Because of the successful drone campaign
against the insurgents in the Paki sanctuaries
the ISI and Taliban are at crossed swords.

And there have been some raids of Afghan
Taliban into Paki, at least thats the allegation.

If Paki is going rogue and breaks off as ally
in the GWOT, they will build a closer relationship
with the Taliban and possibly al qaeda.

Paki's last President Musharraf admitted the country was
NOT hunting al qaeda.

Pakistan being a nuclear state makes them problematic.
The world cannot afford a rogue state aligned with
al qaeda.

And presents a huge nuclear threat, which will
have to be dealt with. And there are various methods
of to de-fang the nuclear threat.

A nuclear Pakistan aligned with al qaeda or even
just the Taliban presents a major threat to every
country in the region, including China and Russia.

The export of nuclear devises by terrorist aligned with
Paki presents a seminal threat.

Both China and Russia would be on board, maybe covertly
to disarming Paki, even india may be of use.

Pakistan's paranoia is justified, they have been double
dealing in the GWOT for 10 yrs and fear complete transparency.
And retribution for for their duplicitous actions.

To develop paradigm intel on this situation and Paki's actions,
we have contacted the top experts we know, and while assurances
of a paper on Pakistan no one wants to step up to the plate.

So we are going BACK CHANNELS, for a better read
on Paki's intent and revelations on their actions.

What are they telling their Pashtun populations
thru unofficial back channels.

Official:
Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani on Wednesday 
said his government was piling diplomatic pressure 
on the United States to halt 
drone strikes in the tribal areas.


ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Pakistan has demanded that the United States steeply reduce the number of Central Intelligence Agencyoperatives and Special Operations forces working in Pakistan
Why Pakistan's Taliban Target the Muslim Majority
(Read "In Pakistan, Justifying Murder for Those Who Blaspheme.")
Al Qaeda influence on the Taliban, G
But with the arrival of al-Qaeda in the country a decade ago, local militants forged links with the global jihadists, their sectarianism sharpened to accept al-Qaeda's "takfiri" worldview that deems adherents of other strains of Islam as deviant apostates worthy of death.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2063794,00.html#ixzz1JTBqsOIl



President Zardari said yesterday. He said that the war in Afghanistan was destabilizing Pakistan.

Of course the reverse it true, Taliban sanctuaries in Paki is destabilizing Afghan, G




Back Channels:

Urdu-language daily Roznama Ummat interviewed former Pakistani military officer Brigadier (retired) Mahmood Shah, who has served as secretary of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATAs) of Pakistan. Former Pakistani Military Officer: Tribesmen Should be Permitted to Take Revenge Against the U.S. for Drone Attacks; The Time has Come for Pakistan to Exit the War Against Terror War.I THINK THIS IS AN ACCURATE READ OF THE PAKI MIND SET,G

Pakistani side trying to play its cards in a smart way to renegotiate those terms without giving this relationship a huge shock.
So it’s understandable, when we see this kind of reports, the one in the New York Times for example, to see some of the US government officials describing the current relationship as being close to a near collapse. But from the Pakistani side the objective is very clear; I don’t think anyone really wants it to collapse, but they are certainly bargaining very hard to renegotiate the terms of cooperation. THEY WANT US DOLLARS AND ALSO TO SUPPORT THE TALIBAN IN THEIR PAKI PROTECTED SANCTUARYS,G


Davis was in contact with some of the terrorist groups that were killing Pakistani civilians, he was in touch with the wrong kind of people without informing the Pakistani authorities. Obviously, that was a breakdown in communication and a breakdown in trust between ISI and CIA.  BREAK DOWN OF TRUST OF CIA BY ISI, ISI COULDN'T PROTECT, OFFER TALIBAN DATA/INTEL ON CIA TARGETING,G


terrorists and separatists who are conducting terror activities in South-Western Pakistan, in the province of Balochistan, have a very good safe haven in an American-controlled Afghanistan. Pakistanis are asking, why is it that a territory, which is under control of the United States, has become a safe haven for terrorists, who are waging an insurgency inside Pakistan. SUBTLE ADMISSION OF GUILT, AS ISI HAS BEEN DOING THIS AGAINST AFGHAN,G


Afghanistan where the NATO mission is a complete failure; in 9 years they have a country, which is not under their complete control and it’s a complete mess. So it is very clear, that there is no solution to Afghanistan for the time being except a political one, and I think, that there is quite bit of a progress being made on that front. FOREMOST IS PROTECTION OF TALIBAN, MAKING THEIR COVERT SOCK PUPPET A RECOGNIZED POLITICAL POWER,G 


The Pakistani strategy is pushing toward a political reconciliation in Afghanistan. Pakistan is trying to show its good intention. One sign of that came last week, when Pakistan announced that it would not object if India participated in some of reconciliation efforts in Afghanistan, which is a huge change in the Pakistani position. Pakistan basically wants to say, that we have no bad intentions towards Afghanistan, we are willing to cooperate with all the parties concerned and our foremost priority is stability in Afghanistan, and for that we have no problem if even India joins the efforts. So for the first time India would also join the efforts that Turkey is spearheading regarding recompilation inside Afghanistan, and India would be participating in these meetings. PAKI INTENTIONS ARE CLEAR SUBVERSION OF AFGHAN, RAIDS FROM TALIBAN SANCTUARIES INTO AFGHAN TO RETAKE AFGHAN,G


Pakistan also wants to show these skeptical elements in the Washington establishment that we are willing to cooperate, and if you withdraw troops, if you get out of Afghanistan and begin a withdrawal, this would not mean necessarily a return to the situation that we saw in Afghanistan back in the 1990s, when different parts of Afghanistan were under the control of different factions; that should not really happen. And all the theories about Pakistan waiting out for the American withdrawal so it could restart its great game in Afghanistan and start playing the same old game through proxy, these are not true. PAKI OBJECTIVE IS TAKE OVER AFGHAN WITH TALIBAN, AS SOON AS US WITHDRAWS, G


Turkey is playing a major role: over the past few months consensus developed between various players that we need to find a country that can act as a neutral venue [for talks] that everybody could trust. For example, there was also some talk about the fact, that the Afghan Taliban also needed a place where they could freely conduct talks with the Afghan government representatives and others. And it emerged that Turkey came up as a good venue for all of this. And probably we are going to see in the next few days the opening of a representation office in Turkey where the negotiators from the Afghan Taliban could be based there. So Turkey has emerged as a neutral venue for reconciliation talks in Afghanistan, and all of us will see increase the activity in Turkey with regards to Afghanistan in the next few days. And the purpose of the visit of the Pakistan president to Turkey basically is all about this point – reconciliation in Afghanistan. PAKI DRIVING MOTIVE IS TO GET US OUT OF AFGHAN, FOR THE TALIBAN ASSAULT,G


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Paki is going rogue and looking for a covert way to do it, 
Plausible deny ability in an Afghan attack is key to keeping it
out of war with US and protecting its nuclear stockpile.


When US pulls the plug on Paki aid its going to be
a very heavy hit on their economy, big depression,
and shift to drug based economy by drug lords,
Taliban will smell the blood/weakness and will
try for Gov take over and strike to try for a 
nuke war head with al qaeda aid.

Paki is looking to switch sides in the GWOT. 
Paki thinks they can rule the Taliban wolf living
with them, even as it chews their leg.
Paki's army is smaller than Saddam's.
No need for boots on the Ground,
just rip up sanctuarys and provide NO fly
zone over them during Drone attacks.
Diplomacy will smooth some of these
edges.
US needs to prepare. Paki to become
state sponsor of Terrorism.
Be prepared to use full US force against
Paki Military as they move to the Dark side.

Rebuttals welcome, post in comments,
I will move to main post.




Gerald
War Anthropologist
ad Magnum
InternetAnthropologistTT@Gmail.com
https://twitter.com/#!/Geraldanthro


Rebuttals welcome and will be posted,G

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