Stratfor continues to miss the point, IRAN

Iranian Reality

Misreading Sentiment in Iran

Limited to information on Iran from English-speaking opponents of the regime, both groups of Iran experts got a very misleading vision of where the revolution was heading — because the Iranian revolution was not brought about by the people who spoke English. It was made by merchants in city bazaars, by rural peasants, by the clergy — people Americans didn’t speak to because they couldn’t. This demographic was unsure of the virtues of modernization and not at all clear on the virtues of liberalism. From the time they were born, its members knew the virtue of Islam, and that the Iranian state must be an Islamic state.of

( points the the problem OF NO translating engine for FARSI.G )

Certainly, hopes that a new political leadership would cut back on Iran’s nuclear program have been dashed. The champion of that program has won, in part because he championed the program. We still see Iran as far from developing a deliverable nuclear weapon, but certainly the Obama administration’s hopes that Ahmadinejad would either be replaced — or at least weakened and forced to be more conciliatory .....

For the moment, the election appears to have frozen the status quo in place. Neither the United States nor Iran seem prepared to move significantly, and there are no third parties that want to get involved in the issue beyond the occasional European diplomatic mission or Russian threat to sell something to Iran. In the end, this shows what we have long known: This game is locked in place, and goes on....

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Stratfor continues to miss the point

By Gerald Internet Anthropologist Think Tank

05.15.09

The analysis misses several points:

The question of a Iranian deliverable nuke is bogged down in

in a WWII paradigm and ignores the possibility of a nuke

delivered by Iranian submarine on a suicide mission or a fishing trawler

or a cargo crate.

OR even just smuggled to the Israel border, but not on Iranian soil.

And it is not the status quo, the riots present the possibility

of a new violent Mujaheddin movement in Iran.

And the targeting of Iranian leaders, and if the election stands

which I expect it will, Iran will become more adventurous.

Sanctions have proven time and time again to be ineffective.

They are just viewed as the cost of membership to the nuclear club.

There seems to be only one avenue open, a lighting crush force

against Iran. sutation remains fluid.

Gerald

Anthropologist

The first error:

Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Stratfor hypothesis error, Nuke Iran ...

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