Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Stratfor hypothesis error, N.Korea and Iran threat.

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    Wednesday, May 27, 2009

    Stratfor hypothesis error, N.Korea and Iran threat.

    STRATFOR, is using old paradigms, developes inaccurate assessment of threat.
    By Gerald; Internet Anthropologist Think Tank

    The North Korean Nuclear Test and Geopolitical RealityThe Challenges of a Nuclear Weapons ProgramPursuing a nuclear weapons program is not without its risks. Another important distinction is that between a crude nuclear device and an actual weapon. The former requires only that a country demonstrate the capability to initiate an uncontrolled nuclear chain reaction, creating a rather large hole in the ground. That device may be crude, fragile or otherwise temperamental. But this does not automatically imply the capability to mount a rugged and reliable nuclear warhead on a delivery vehicle and send it flying to the other side of the earth. In other words, it does not immediately translate into a meaningful deterrent.For that, a ruggedized, reliable nuclear weapon must be mated with some manner of reliable delivery vehicle to have real military meaning..THIS IS HYPOTHESIS IN ERROR. G.


    While throw weight and penetration, even delivery 
    were the main concerns of the old paradigm.

    The new paradigm is more concerned with
    a single nuke.

    By a non-state terror group of a rogue state.
    Delivery can be accomplished with a fishing 
    trawler or in a cargo vessels.

    The inability of Iran or N. Korea to miniaturize
    the components for a missile delivery system
    is of little comfort.

    MAD or mutually assured destruction is no
    deterrent with a non-state terrorist group,
    or a supreme leader that may have dementia,
    or a religious desire to press the button,

    The risk of the new paradigm is even graver
    and more serious than than the old paradigm.
    And a higher probability of a Pearl Harbor type
    nuclear attack.

    N. KOREA, IRAN and TERRORIST pose a bigger threat of
    a nuclear strike than Russia ever has.


    Internet Anthropologist

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    Blogger david said...

    Yes, look at a map. A small ordinary looking local fishing or pleasure craft can dock up next to Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Miami, NYC, Seattle, LA, San Diego, London, Hong Kong, Tel Avis, Philadelphia, and on and on. How hard can it be to sneak a small nuke off an offshore cargo ship and onto a small local vessel that has been stolen from the on board murdered owners..? How much planning to simultaneously detonate 4 or 6 or 8 warheads in multiple Western cities?

    8:52 PM  

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