New State: Taliban Swat:
Since winning the election last spring, the Zardari-Gilani government entered a series of peace agreements with the Taliban throughout the tribal areas and the settled districts of the Northwest Frontier Province. Between March and July of 2008, the government negotiated seven agreements with the Taliban in North Waziristan, Swat, Dir, Bajaur, Malakand, Mohmand, Khyber,Orakzai, and Hangu. Negotiations were also underway in South Waziristan,Kohat, and Mardan before fighting in Swat and Bajaur broke out, effectively ending the talks.
The past peace agreements, which were started under former President Pervez Musharraf's regime in 2004, have only served to grant the Taliban the time it needed to regroup from fighting with the Pakistani military. While the military has been unable or unwilling to dislodge the Taliban from their safe havens, the Taliban had little time to recoup losses and coordinate efforts. The peace agreements gave the Taliban the respite needed to reorganize.
During the "peace periods" the Taliban would use the time granted to add new recruits, rest and re-arm its forces, and consolidate control over the new-found territory. The peace agreements also served to embolden and restore the morale of the Taliban while demoralizing those who fought against the Taliban and live in the regions. The Taliban would conduct ruthless purges of anyone expected of supporting the government. Hundreds of tribal leaders and others have been murdered and often were mutilated. Almost all would have notes labeling them as "US spies" pinned to their chests.
Despite the government's objections to criticism of the current agreement, the current Malakand Accord has granted the Taliban control over a region that encompasses more than 1/3 of the Northwest Front Province, effectively cementing the Taliban's control over most of the province and the tribal areas.
The Taliban's recruiting base has almost doubled, as has its taxation base. The Malakand Division, which is made up of the districts of Malakand, Swat, Shangla, Buner, Dir, and Chitral, has a population of more that 4.3 million according to the 1998 census. The Taliban effectively control the tribal areas (population estimated at 6.5 million in 1998) and many of the bordering districts with millions more. The Taliban also have a strong presence or influence in nearly all of the other districts in the province.
A senior US military intelligence official who has tracked the situation in Pakistan's tribal areas described the Malakand Accord as "a major win for the bad guys."
The Taliban have been in effective control of Swat and most of the surrounding regions, the official told The Long War Journal, noting that the Pakistanis living in the region have lived under Fazlullah's brand of sharia since 2007. "The government has simply declined to stop contesting the matter," the official said.
"What is happening there is a microcosm for what Tehrik-e-Taliban plans to do to the whole of Pakistan," the official said, referring to Baituallah Mehsud's Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan.
There is evidence the Taliban is beginning to branch out beyond the Northwest Frontier Province as well as from areas in Baluchistan, which have remained quietly under Taliban control. The Taliban have stepped up attacks in the Punjab districts of Dera Ghazi Khan and Mianwali over the past several weeks. The attacks have prompted the Punjab provincial government to consider closing down its borders with the two provinces.
Huge part of Pakistan is now an independent state.
Taliban and al Qaeda has a safe base of operations.
This is the 8th "peace treaty" the Paki Government
has made with the Taliban, and previous 7 have failed.
The Taliban view this as a great victory and has
boosted insurgent morale.
The Paki Government has surrendered a major part
of Pakisatn to the Taliban.
The Taliban are defeating the Paki Government and military.