More on Paki Paradigm:

More on Paki Paradigm:

From Email:

The key threat to Pakistan's civilian government is actually the Paki Army.  Another military coup will occur if the Taliban isn't neutralized and pushed back.  Neither we nor the Army, nor the civilian government, want a coup.  But Army leadership is better than Taliban leadership.
 
So we've put the Paki Army on notice that their inaction against the Taliban would force us to conclude that they want to rule again and if that happens, we will no longer consider the subnational FATA as a legal and integral part of Pakistan.  For now, we need a legal mandate to do more in the FATA against the Taliban.
 
However, the Taliban are thinking ahead and realize they have to move into Buner, the refugee camps around Quetta, and Karachi in order to escape the UAV attacks and operate freely again.  
 
An underpinning to all this is that Pakistan is bankrupt and the IMF will pull out and make no more loans if the Army takes over.  We will have to finance, with Saudi help, the Paki's.  Something which we are ill prepared to do.  Hovering in the shadows are the Chinese ready to make massive financial loans to Pakistan.  There are massive influences on Pakistan, and we are doing our best with a clever and often distancing and always chaotic mix of leaderships there. 
 
We are preparing a massive offensive in S Afghanistan to eradicate the poppy/heroin financing of the Taliban.  The Taliban are going to stand and fight and are building the logistics to do so.  This campaign season will sort out the future, whom ever prevails sets the course for the Afpak theater.  It will be a noisy and bloody next eight months.
 
gandalf