Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Mubarak's Game plan.

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    Saturday, January 29, 2011

    Mubarak's Game plan.

    More of our INTEL

    Mubarak's Game plan.

    Paradigm Intel: Egyptian Paradigm.

    Mubarak is opting for a "Iranian Option."

    Iran was also taken by surprise by a popular uprising.
    Scared the hell out of the Iranian regime also.
    The Regimes response was to try and cut the
    demonstrators Command and Control, limiting WWW
    access and cutting off phones.
    Then they unleashed the Basiji.

    The Basiji were charged with killing and maiming enough
    demonstrators to stop or slow the demonstrations.
    Remember Neda Agha Soltan 
    Warning Graphic Murder:

    And then they arrested the opposition leaders,
    and replaced or weakened any showing any support 
    for the demonstrators.

    And Iran was able to emasculate the Green party.
    Turning the opposition to the regime into Jello.

    Egypt will too have its Neda.
    Mubarak will use the Army which the 
    people respect to restore order,
    and use the time to regroup and plan.

    He will then call Army off the streets
    and release a new group of hard line
    thugs to intimidate the people.

    And Mubarak has the support of most
    Arab Capitals. While this is NOT a religious
    uprising it is concentrated in Islamic countrys.

    Muslims are finding their voices and demanding
    freedom and democracy.
    They have seen the failure of the Terrorist paradigm,
    and elected a Gandhi type approach.

    Gandhi cast out one of the most powerful empires
    in the world, drove them out of India.
    And gained independence.

    Islam has yet to fully understand Gandhi's methods,
    Philosophy, non-violent confrontation.
    Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi was the pre-eminent 
    political and ideological leader of India during the 
    Indian independence movement. 

    And Martin Luther King, who confronted
    the American Government and changed America.

    Both were using the same approximate paradigm
    and employed it very successfully against very
    powerful adversaries and prevailed.

    Iranian Green movement failed because of this lack
    of a coherent paradigm.
    And Egypt's peoples movement has the same flaw.

    The only paradigm the Islamic peoples partys
    have with a chance of success is an Philosophy
    of  non-violent confrontation, and to date
    there is no evidence of such a stratagem.

    Tunisia was a successful operation, because the
    Military intervened on behalf of the people.
    Egypt has a slim chance of pulling off a Military
    coup d'état, Mubarak will not put the Military
    on the people, he will use them to restore order
    pull them out and send in his thugs.

    The Arab regimes face change, its inevitable,
    they fear the insurgent paradigm but its an
    animal they know and are some what comfortable

    This new "Marching" Paradigm is new.
    And they are very uncomfortable with it,
    and apply counter insurgent tools against it.
    They Crack down.
    The Arab regimes are simply tightening down
    a pressure cooker that will Blow eventually.

    As real world leaders they must adopt change,
    to slowly release the pressure, change the 
    power structure, and truly democratize their 

    ( There are movements/powers afoot world Governments
    are still adopting to, learning of, the WWW has enabled
    massive crowd sourcing, and force multipliers like Anonymous.
    And a demonstrated power in the making exceeding that of US Military.
    Effective Regime change. )

    Other wise they are despots setting on a 
    power keg, not leaders.

    This paradigm will work its self out in a 
    partnership in the Arab nations.
    Between the people and the kings.
    Each beating the other into a middle
    ground leading to democracy, and
    Free Muslims.

    The wise leaders will move towards
    this goal, the faster the less painful for
    the regimes and people it will be.

    The Arab people are working out their
    paradigm for change, and many will die

    The Arab regimes are working on crack
    downs and many leaders will suffer heavily
    in the eyes history for all time.

    Despot or enlightened ruler?
    Change is in the wind and can't be stopped.
    They can slow it or take charge and speed it
    up, Control it.

    Surprisingly  it looks like mankind still
    marches towards enlightenment.

    The world take me by a pleasant surprise,


    Wider view Thomas P.M. Barnett 
    U vote; What you think will happen;
    not what you want to happen.


    UPDATE: 02.07.11
    Mubarak moves to Infowar stage.
    Blame demonstrations for loss of profits, tourists,etc.
    Blame protesters and round up leaders, intimidate
    injure instill fear.
    Wait out media, how long will demonstrators keep
    world press attention.
    Wait for it to cool down, quietly remove key protesters.
    Big error on regimes part, shut off WWW.
    That didn't match what state TV and news were
    saying, alerted entire Egyptian population
    something big was going on and doubled
    or tripled number of demonstrators.

    Threatened Obama with deadly crack
    down on Egyptian people if kept pressuring
    on quiting NOW.

    Mubarak planning to keep his power structure
    in place. And rule by proxy.

    Evidence he is not sincere about leaving.
    Case against Mubarak: deceits after he agreed to step down.

    Doomed Uprising: Revolution,a Microcosm of the Arab Masses' Quest for a Share in Power and Resources  




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