Paradigm Intel after the withdrawal

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Paradigm Intel Afghan Paki after pull out.

At some point US will do a pullout of Afpak.

Afgahn's Karzi will embrace the Taliban for

personal security and piratical political reasons.

And the Paki ISI will saddle up to the Taliban

even closer and provide them funds as a method 

of controling them and Afghan.

Al Qaeda will ride that wave to try and take over

Afghan again.

US will have doubled its Drone forces and leave

behind a contingent of 20 to 40,000 security troops.

Taliban, Afghan Gov and Paki Gov will support

al Qaeda efforts at least in a passive way at the 

least, and provide support at worst for more 

attacks on Conus.

Motive is to get back on the US anti-terrorism

funding Teat. Billions of USD.

US will counter with covert special forces and

more drone attacks, Afghan and Paki will counter

with demands and threats to try and get US to end

Drone attacks.

Paki is a nuclear force.

The Drone attacks will be the only effective method

to successfully counter al Qaeda operations.

The paradigm will fall back to pre-US involvement

era with Afgahn and Paki in low intensity operations

agsinst each other and both competing for and playing

the "Great Game " against US for anti-terror funding

while both supporting terrorism to some extent against 

each other with the Taliban groups playing both sides.

And al Qaed leveraging the situation to develop the capability

to attack Conus. And playing US against Afpak nationalism.

For the next similar operation there are lessons to be learned,

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/12/15/5_ways

_to_win_the_war_in_afghanistan?page=full

And time to work out problems with SysAdmin paradigm.

It just wasn't ready for the Afpak operation.

One unacknowledged success in this war was the number

of casualties, this war has been twice the time frame of WWII

5 yrs and in that war there were 40,000,000 killed.

By comparison this war has almost left the civilian population

untouched while running twice as long, 10 yrs.

The US military has been very effective in adopting in the

environs of the war and developed and implemented new 

paradigms in record time and embracing new methodologies

as needed, unlike any preceding war.

Upon withdrawal the US is proceeding into even more

complicated waters, and opening the door for new al Quada

opportunities.

Al qaeda is not done and bidding its time to resurrect

secure bases for foreign operations.

The Terrorist war is just moving into a new phase,

in which the US maybe able to operate more effectively 

and cheaper.

But the info war is about to become much more difficult.

With higher and more effective propaganda campaigns.

Wikileaks will continue to exacerbate the situation.

The US info war continues to be problematic and will become

more difficult as they withdraw, and Terror cyber operations

jump with the additional secure bases of operation.

US is facing an entirely new war paradigm, its not the end

when they withdraw, just a new phase, that the American 

public will embrace.

After the first attack on CONUS there will be voluminous 

complaints about Obama withdrawing too soon.

But I see no successful alternatives.

This will provide other Muslim countries opportunities

to engage al qaeda in Afpak on the ground on the basis

of self defense, something they have been using US for 

as a proxy.

Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Islam's Sloth

The FBI will need more funding to amp up for the

withdrawal in preparation for the increased tempo of

al qaeda operations.

Gerald

War Anthropologist

.