Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Paradigm Intel after the withdrawal

  • Search our BLOG

  • HOME
    Terrorist Names SEARCH:

    Thursday, December 16, 2010

    Paradigm Intel after the withdrawal

    This blog set to display 20 days of posts. Sorry Blogspot only shows 3 days, waiting for a Google fix, G

    Paradigm Intel Afghan Paki after pull out.

    At some point US will do a pullout of Afpak.
    Afgahn's Karzi will embrace the Taliban for
    personal security and piratical political reasons.

    And the Paki ISI will saddle up to the Taliban
    even closer and provide them funds as a method 
    of controling them and Afghan.

    Al Qaeda will ride that wave to try and take over
    Afghan again.

    US will have doubled its Drone forces and leave
    behind a contingent of 20 to 40,000 security troops.

    Taliban, Afghan Gov and Paki Gov will support
    al Qaeda efforts at least in a passive way at the 
    least, and provide support at worst for more 
    attacks on Conus.

    Motive is to get back on the US anti-terrorism
    funding Teat. Billions of USD.

    US will counter with covert special forces and
    more drone attacks, Afghan and Paki will counter
    with demands and threats to try and get US to end
    Drone attacks.
    Paki is a nuclear force.

    The Drone attacks will be the only effective method
    to successfully counter al Qaeda operations.

    The paradigm will fall back to pre-US involvement
    era with Afgahn and Paki in low intensity operations
    agsinst each other and both competing for and playing
    the "Great Game " against US for anti-terror funding
    while both supporting terrorism to some extent against 
    each other with the Taliban groups playing both sides.

    And al Qaed leveraging the situation to develop the capability
    to attack Conus. And playing US against Afpak nationalism.

    For the next similar operation there are lessons to be learned,

    And time to work out problems with SysAdmin paradigm.
    It just wasn't ready for the Afpak operation.

    One unacknowledged success in this war was the number
    of casualties, this war has been twice the time frame of WWII
    5 yrs and in that war there were 40,000,000 killed.

    By comparison this war has almost left the civilian population
    untouched while running twice as long, 10 yrs.

    The US military has been very effective in adopting in the
    environs of the war and developed and implemented new 
    paradigms in record time and embracing new methodologies
    as needed, unlike any preceding war.

    Upon withdrawal the US is proceeding into even more
    complicated waters, and opening the door for new al Quada

    Al qaeda is not done and bidding its time to resurrect
    secure bases for foreign operations.

    The Terrorist war is just moving into a new phase,
    in which the US maybe able to operate more effectively 
    and cheaper.

    But the info war is about to become much more difficult.
    With higher and more effective propaganda campaigns.
    Wikileaks will continue to exacerbate the situation.

    The US info war continues to be problematic and will become
    more difficult as they withdraw, and Terror cyber operations
    jump with the additional secure bases of operation.

    US is facing an entirely new war paradigm, its not the end
    when they withdraw, just a new phase, that the American 
    public will embrace.

    After the first attack on CONUS there will be voluminous 
    complaints about Obama withdrawing too soon.

    But I see no successful alternatives.

    This will provide other Muslim countries opportunities
    to engage al qaeda in Afpak on the ground on the basis
    of self defense, something they have been using US for 
    as a proxy.

    The FBI will need more funding to amp up for the
    withdrawal in preparation for the increased tempo of
    al qaeda operations.

    War Anthropologist


    Post a Comment

    Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

    << Home