Strategy for Afghanistan: Kissinger

Excerpts from:

Strategy for Afghanistan

By Henry A. Kissinger

Thursday, February 26, 2009; Page A19

My comments in CAPS. G

America cannot withdraw from Afghanistan now, but neither can it sustain the strategy that brought us to this point.

The stakes are high. Victory for the Taliban in Afghanistan would give a tremendous shot in the arm to jihadism globally -- threatening Pakistan with jihadist takeover and possibly intensifying terrorism in India, which has the world's third-largest Muslim population. Russia, China and Indonesia, which have all been targets of jihadist Islam, could also be at risk.....

IF THE TERRORISTS ARE NOT DEFEATED IN AFPAK THEN RUSSIAN AND

CHINA STAND TO BE NEXT BIG TARGETS. G

America has pursued traditional anti-insurgency tactics: to create a central government, help it extend its authority over the entire country and, in the process, bring about a modern bureaucratic and democratic society.....

Afghans seem to define their country in terms of a common dedication to independence but not to unitary or centralized self-government.

The truism that the war is, in effect, a battle for the hearts and minds of the Afghan population is valid enough in concept. The low standard of living of much of the population has been exacerbated by 30 years of civil war. The economy is on the verge of sustaining itself through the sale of narcotics. There is no significant democratic tradition. Reform is a moral necessity. But the time scale for reform is out of sync with the requirements of anti-guerrilla warfare. ....

Military strategy should concentrate on preventing the emergence of a coherent, contiguous state within the state controlled by jihadists. In practice, this would mean control of Kabul and the Pashtun area. A jihadist base area on both sides of the mountainous Afghan-Pakistani border would become a permanent threat to hopes for a moderate evolution and to all of Afghanistan's neighbors. 

HENERY THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT EXIST CURRENTLY, SEE :Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Durand Line, Talibans stealth ...

Gen. David Petraeus has argued that, reinforced by the number of American forces he has recommended, he should be able to control the 10 percent of Afghan territory where, in his words, 80 percent of the military threat originates. This is the region where the "clear, hold and build" strategy that had success in Iraq is particularly applicable.......

The conduct of Pakistan will be crucial. Pakistan's leaders must face the fact that continued toleration of the sanctuaries -- or continued impotence with respect to them -- will draw their country ever deeper into an international maelstrom. If the jihadists were to prevail in Afghanistan, Pakistan would surely be the next target -- as is observable by activity already taking place along the existing borders and in the Swat Valley close to Islamabad. If that were to happen, the affected countries would need to consult each other about the implications of the nuclear arsenal of a Pakistan being engulfed or even threatened by jihadists. Like every country engaged in Afghanistan, Pakistan has to make decisions that will affect its international position for decades.

President Obama said Tuesday night that he "will not allow terrorists to plot against the American people from safe havens halfway around the world." Whatever strategy his team selects needs to be pursued with determination. It is not possible to hedge against failure by half-hearted execution.

SOURCE:

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CIA Director agrees with Internet Anthropologist.

LANGLEY, Va. - CIA Director Leon Panetta said Wednesday thatPresident Obama has endorsed the agency's stepped-up offensive against Al Qaeda.

The most visible part of that campaign has been 37 missile strikes since June in Pakistan's tribal areas on its border withAfghanistan, where the Daily News has reported at least eight Al Qaeda leaders have been killed by unmanned drones.

While not discussing specifics of the agency's classified program that targets Osama Bin Laden's lieutenants, Panetta said "operational efforts that have been put in place have been successful at disrupting them."

"It probably is the most effective weapon we have to try to disrupt Al Qaeda right now," Panetta told reporters at his headquarters.

Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Most effective weapon against ...

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A problem with drone attacks is a lack of Intelligence follow up,

or arrests of other key personel. I'm sure te Marines have a 

heavy duty force that could be air deployed into a hot area

to recover Intel and make arrests. Fast reaction Company

swoop and scoop , and withdraw, before a effective counter

attack could be organized by the Taliban.

Henry also looked at this long term, I focused on just 

short term. linl above.

Gerald

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