Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Taliban will give up al Qaeda leaders

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    Sunday, March 16, 2008

    Taliban will give up al Qaeda leaders

    Paki is locked into certain directions by their own political system. The unfolding Paki / Taliban paradigm is knowable. This should be taken into consideration when planning USA's tactics in dealing with the Taliban.
    Sourced from here.
    The uncertainty stalking the formation of government in Islamabad can be put down to one issue: the protagonists are faced with very different timeframes. The main sticking points are the fate of the president and the deposed judges. However, resolving their fate is complicated by the differing time horizons of the PPP, the PML-N, the lawyers, Gen Kiyani, and not least the US.

    Furthermore, it is doubtful if Sharif will even have the power to veto Pakistan's military cooperation with the US. For one, the prime minister will not be from his party. For another, the Pakistan Army is unlikely to give the US further excuse to withhold the approximately $80 million it deposits in the army's kitty each month.

    Lacking the "luxury of taking a long-term perspective" Bush has stood behind Musharraf for geo-political ends that transcend the Pakistan-US relationship. Set to leave office next January, Bush simply cannot afford to lose time -- perhaps a critical month or two -- in building new relationships with civilian politicians in Pakistan. With Musharraf atop the political pyramid, the extent to which civilian politicians need to be briefed and cajoled by the US is limited. Continuity is the White House's mantra because this administration's time horizon is short and its window of opportunity to turn around the Nato-led campaign in Afghanistan is shrinking rapidly.

    Here in Pakistan the PPP has been reluctant to call for Musharraf's resignation and the reinstatement of the deposed judges because the party is simply taking a medium-term perspective. In ordinary times, politics in Pakistan, where few rules are sacrosanct, does not allow for the luxury of medium- to long-term perspectives, which is the principal reason for the instability of the 1990s.

    PPP is going through extraordinary times. the party did not campaign on a platform to depose the president or to reinstate the judges, whatever the occasional statement made by a cornered member of the party, so there is no need to hurry. A dozen years out of power and now seeking to make an alliance with a party that is its ideological opposite and bitter rival in years past, the PPP cannot afford to offend the Pakistani president, the establishment or the US at this delicate juncture in the party's history.

    The PML-N is perhaps the best placed because the political equations in both the short-term and the medium-term are in its favour. In the short-term, pushing for the ouster of the president and reinstallation of the judiciary, the bedrock of Sharif's election campaign, could at worst trigger fresh elections. Since the party will not be able to lead the formation of a government in the current parliament, this will not be a huge concern. Indeed, early polls will allow an ebullient Sharif to be better prepared to harness an electorate that is responsive to his 'politics of principles'.

    Enter the lawyers. Their time horizon is short simply because bringing back the judges is the raison d'etre of their movement. The lawyers also hope to kill two birds with one stone: given the bad blood between the deposed chief justice and the president, reinstating the entire judiciary is tantamount to the president's resignation. Taking a long-term view is a non-starter for the lawyers: they have staked their movement's success on the reinstatement of the judiciary at the earliest. Any delay will allow the political parties to claim the credit for restoring the judiciary, a claim that will rankle with lawyers who remember their lonely struggle last year.

    However, the lawyers have miscalculated before. In the days leading up to November 3, the fierceness of the lawyers emboldened the Supreme Court to take on the president. Whatever the legal arguments marshalled by the lawyers, the mode of their protests suggests that it was neither then nor now a legal question. The lawyers brought the Supreme Court to the brink of something it was never designed to: line up against the legislature, the executive and the military. Comparisons to the sanctification of previous martial laws were wrong; condemning legislatures to extinction is different from validating the acts of a legislature. Yet, because of the nature of the lawyers' movement, the acceptance of historical distinction then or delay now is akin to defeat.

    If the political struggle in Islamabad were a game of chess, the White House would see it as the clock running down, the PPP would see it as a drawn out game, the PML-N would see the loss of a single game acceptable when the match is within grasp, and the lawyers would see it as a game of speed chess in which they hope to harry their opponent into a wrong move.

    There is an X-factor in all of this: Gen Kiyani. If the army chief chooses the short-term perspective, he will rally behind Musharraf and sidle up to the Americans. If he chooses a medium-term perspective, he will allow this game to be decided by the players themselves.

    Thus far Gen Kiyani has shown a preference for the longer term. This should not be read as altruism or nobility of purpose. The general knows that neither the political parties nor the public are in the mood for another round of martial law. If the army chief interferes overtly in the resolution of the political game, the parties and the lawyers will be out for his blood. As Zardari and Sharif would testify, survival in Islamabad is a long-term game.

    The Taliban have also shown their hand. When the Taliban feel enough pain they WILL come to the table. And give up al Qaeda leaders.

    KABUL (Reuters) - A top Taliban commander has said suicide attacks and roadside bombs would spearhead its new strategy against foreign troops, and hinted the movement could work with Afghanistan's government if foreign troops left.

    In an apparent policy shift, Taliban deputy leader Mullah Brother told a militant Website that the Islamic movement could cooperate with the government of President Hamid Karzai, rather than seek its ouster.

    "The matter can not be solved through war...the issue should be settled through understanding and talks," he said.

    Omar has cut the Paki Taliban loose, and is angry with BM. Over his lack of support of the Taliban in Afghan.

    BM current posture is one of survial. His time line is short term also. He is trying to deal from a position of strength. Suicide bombings. And he has greatly angered Paki military.

    The terminal fly in the ointment is the Pali experience in the "Great Game".

    There is a $10 Billion dollar motivation not to get rid of terrorism, not eliminate it but control it.
    This would keep the gravy train running.
    Lest we forget Paki has been playing the great game since 1813. (USA was involved in the war of 1812, the second American Revolution, when Paki started playing Great Game.
    I suspect the Great Game never quit for Pakistan.
    And that means they have been playing for 9 or 10 generations.
    USA was shooting cannon at the British in the Great Lakes when they first started the Great Game.
    The Paki papers don't call them 'terrorists', they call them 'miscreants'.( Maybe thats a branch of Shia? )
    Current value of the Great Game $10 billion usd, what the USA has paid Paki.
    Pakistan "not looking for Bin Laden."

    Once the aQ leader ship is taken out it will become a manageable Police action.
    The Taliban HAVE to live there and will come to some agreement with the government,
    when the Taliban feel enough pain.


    al Qaeda faults:
    Supposing that a Visa is a Guarantee of Security, Does an Infidel's Guarantee of Security to a Muslim Entail the Muslim Guaranteeing the Security of the Infidel?

    The Legitimacy of Night Raids

    Jihad Waged by the Prophet and His Companions Was a Jihad Waged from Abroad, Without Their Engaging in Jihad Operations from Within Enemy Land Prior to Its Being Conquered

    It Is a Breach of Honorable Conduct for a Muslim Living in the West to Attack Those Who Have Shown Him Hospitality.

    Jihad Group's Operations in a Manner that Does Not Express the Reality.

    the Story of Sayyidna 'Abdallah Bin Hadhafa Al-Sahmi.

    The Taliban will take out al Qaweda.




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