"Paradigm cross check on Pervez MUSHARRAF".
"Paradigm cross check on Pervez MUSHARRAF".
For this cross check we are going back to 3 articles Two are 2 months old, outlining the Pakistan Paradigm.
We can then cross check the accuracy of the articles paradigm, "forecast vs history." ( article 2 months old )
I then assume Musharraf and his Intel services have/had about the same information as the general Paradigm outlined by the authors.
We then look and see what Musharraf does or doesn't do with this information to discern motivations.
Ontological problem with ' Paradigm Intel ' its seminal fault is "Just because you can forecast actions doesn't mean you understand
whats going on.'
( Example: Ptolemy and his theory of the planets, Earth-centered Ptolemaic system, LOOPING Planets. He could forecast position of the planets, but his understanding of the system was very wrong.)
OUR REVIEW:
Two months ago, article: " Military brains plot Pakistan's
By Syed Saleem Shahzad describes the Talibans goals and military plan. Including the Taliban resurgence .
And SWAT take over by Taliban and other targeted areas.
And
Pushing for peace in North Waziristan By
What has MUSHARRAF done?
#2) 'Top militant' seized for harbouring Al Qaeda.
#3) Taliban turning on al Qaeda.
While these are not KEY factors we can see MUSHARRAF taking a stick to al Qaeda and honey for the Taliban.
Releasing the Taliban leaders, and arresting someone who HELPED al Qaeda. And some circumstantial evidence Taliban may be turning on al Qaeda.
AND:
The court has ordered the release of over 60 al Qaeda suspects being held without charge. The court also ordered the release of all those detained in the assault on the radical Red Mosque in Islamabad ,
( One of the reasons given for calling the Emergency powers into play, al Qaeda doesn't get any honey. )
Loosing the Info War, could cost USA Pakti.
The Western view of Pakti isn't clear, foggy.
MUSHARRAF undoubtedly has reviewed his methods with the Collation, and they can track actions for confirmation.
On several occasions Pakti has had its forces refuse to fight the Taliban, surrender to them even, because of tribal connections.
MUSHARRAF seems to be consistent, attempting to strip the Taliban away from al Qaeda.
And convert the Taliban to Pakistan rule.
He seems to think he can work with the Taliban, in fact must work with them to effect some workable Government, especially in view of the problems he is having in the Tribal areas and his Military's reluctance to fight them. ( The "Law of Unintended Consequences" strikes again, While the Pakti Army doesn't want to kill other Pashtoons, ie the Taliban: neither does the Taliban want to kill Pashtoons, the Pakti Army, either. )
Most of the Taliban are Pashtoon and so is his Army. In some sense it is like a force taking over a town from its self.
And any actions against the civilians would be against other Pashtoons also.
The Taliban to be clear has beheaded Pashtoon tribal leaders that didn't obey. But they, the Taliban know if it gets to far out of line, the Taliban will be facing a civil war from its own people, look to history.
With al Qaeda's and Talibans stealth Border: ArmedForces are unable to use a hammer and anvil, their stealth border equals a Fire free zone.
The map below is completely within the Brown Area above, all Pashtoon.
MUSHARRAF fears his political enemy's more than the Taliban hense the Emergency Powers.
Political and Military Illusions in Pakti. Reality vs Illusion. It is a hard call without a thorough anthropological review/Background.
Afghanistan's USA classified operation has worked well in Afghanistan over the summer.
And Iraq has been democratized. Looking up.
Many of these methods will work in Pakti, but USA has no Cadre to train the Paktis in situ.
( UPDATE: 11.20.07, I was wrong: Shifting its strategy, the United States has drafted a proposal to build an armed tribal paramilitary force in Pakistan's frontier areas by enlisting local leaders to counter the expanding base of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the region.
If adopted, the proposal is likely to expand the presence of the US military trainers in Pakistan, directly finance a separate tribal paramilitary force, that until now has proved largely ineffective, and pay militias, who agreed to fight Al Qaeda and foreign extremists, the New York Times said, quoting officials. )
http://ia.rediff.com/news/2007/nov/19pak.htm
http://tinyurl.com/359fmf
There seems to be the desire to bring the Taliban under/into a working relationship.
As we understand it the Pakti Army could take/crush the Taliban if it was so motivated, if the Taliban involvement in al Qaeda type slaughter of Pashtoons was extensive or some other such significant act to offend the Pashtoons.
Which maybe why MUSHARRAF doesn't really fear the Taliban.
What MUSHARRAF is up too.
"al qaeda's Psyops for Patki"
Talibans military plans:
Inside look at Tilaban ( Video )
My concern maybe the title of my next book:
" How to live with Terrorism for $10 billion".
If MUSHARRAF is removed from this Paradigm, resignation or death, then we suspect a donnybrook.
Pakti Paranoia:
Gerald
Please use "comments/blowback" below, to add to or question the pardigm.
For this cross check we are going back to 3 articles Two are 2 months old, outlining the Pakistan Paradigm.
We can then cross check the accuracy of the articles paradigm, "forecast vs history." ( article 2 months old )
I then assume Musharraf and his Intel services have/had about the same information as the general Paradigm outlined by the authors.
We then look and see what Musharraf does or doesn't do with this information to discern motivations.
Ontological problem with ' Paradigm Intel ' its seminal fault is "Just because you can forecast actions doesn't mean you understand
whats going on.'
( Example: Ptolemy and his theory of the planets, Earth-centered Ptolemaic system, LOOPING Planets. He could forecast position of the planets, but his understanding of the system was very wrong.)
OUR REVIEW:
Two months ago, article: " Military brains plot Pakistan's
By Syed Saleem Shahzad describes the Talibans goals and military plan. Including the Taliban resurgence .
And SWAT take over by Taliban and other targeted areas.
And
Pushing for peace in North Waziristan By
What has MUSHARRAF done?
#1) Pakistan frees Mullah Obaidullah, other senior Taliban leaders.
#2) 'Top militant' seized for harbouring Al Qaeda.
#3) Taliban turning on al Qaeda.
While these are not KEY factors we can see MUSHARRAF taking a stick to al Qaeda and honey for the Taliban.
Releasing the Taliban leaders, and arresting someone who HELPED al Qaeda. And some circumstantial evidence Taliban may be turning on al Qaeda.
AND:
The court has ordered the release of over 60 al Qaeda suspects being held without charge. The court also ordered the release of all those detained in the assault on the radical Red Mosque in Islamabad ,
( One of the reasons given for calling the Emergency powers into play, al Qaeda doesn't get any honey. )
Loosing the Info War, could cost USA Pakti.
The Western view of Pakti isn't clear, foggy.
MUSHARRAF undoubtedly has reviewed his methods with the Collation, and they can track actions for confirmation.
On several occasions Pakti has had its forces refuse to fight the Taliban, surrender to them even, because of tribal connections.
MUSHARRAF seems to be consistent, attempting to strip the Taliban away from al Qaeda.
And convert the Taliban to Pakistan rule.
He seems to think he can work with the Taliban, in fact must work with them to effect some workable Government, especially in view of the problems he is having in the Tribal areas and his Military's reluctance to fight them. ( The "Law of Unintended Consequences" strikes again, While the Pakti Army doesn't want to kill other Pashtoons, ie the Taliban: neither does the Taliban want to kill Pashtoons, the Pakti Army, either. )
Most of the Taliban are Pashtoon and so is his Army. In some sense it is like a force taking over a town from its self.
And any actions against the civilians would be against other Pashtoons also.
The Taliban to be clear has beheaded Pashtoon tribal leaders that didn't obey. But they, the Taliban know if it gets to far out of line, the Taliban will be facing a civil war from its own people, look to history.
With al Qaeda's and Talibans stealth Border: ArmedForces are unable to use a hammer and anvil, their stealth border equals a Fire free zone.
The map below is completely within the Brown Area above, all Pashtoon.
MUSHARRAF fears his political enemy's more than the Taliban hense the Emergency Powers.
Political and Military Illusions in Pakti. Reality vs Illusion. It is a hard call without a thorough anthropological review/Background.
Afghanistan's USA classified operation has worked well in Afghanistan over the summer.
And Iraq has been democratized. Looking up.
Many of these methods will work in Pakti, but USA has no Cadre to train the Paktis in situ.
( UPDATE: 11.20.07, I was wrong: Shifting its strategy, the United States has drafted a proposal to build an armed tribal paramilitary force in Pakistan's frontier areas by enlisting local leaders to counter the expanding base of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the region.
If adopted, the proposal is likely to expand the presence of the US military trainers in Pakistan, directly finance a separate tribal paramilitary force, that until now has proved largely ineffective, and pay militias, who agreed to fight Al Qaeda and foreign extremists, the New York Times said, quoting officials. )
http://ia.rediff.com/news/2007/nov/19pak.htm
http://tinyurl.com/359fmf
There seems to be the desire to bring the Taliban under/into a working relationship.
As we understand it the Pakti Army could take/crush the Taliban if it was so motivated, if the Taliban involvement in al Qaeda type slaughter of Pashtoons was extensive or some other such significant act to offend the Pashtoons.
Which maybe why MUSHARRAF doesn't really fear the Taliban.
What MUSHARRAF is up too.
"al qaeda's Psyops for Patki"
Talibans military plans:
Inside look at Tilaban ( Video )
My concern maybe the title of my next book:
" How to live with Terrorism for $10 billion".
If MUSHARRAF is removed from this Paradigm, resignation or death, then we suspect a donnybrook.
Pakti Paranoia:
Gerald
Please use "comments/blowback" below, to add to or question the pardigm.
posted by gerald at
11/15/2007 08:47:00 PM
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