Internet Anthropologist Think Tank: Horns of a dilemma, Afpak/Yemen

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    Tuesday, January 05, 2010

    Horns of a dilemma, Afpak/Yemen

    Horns of a dilemma

    But why did Al Qaeda’s small franchise - which formed in Saudi Arabia in 2003, staged a bombing spree, fought losing gun battles in Saudi streets, but gained strength after a 2006 jailbreak in Yemen, where it has relocated - launch an “external” operation against the U.S. homeland?
    Terrorism analysts are wondering what the answer to this question may be, and “so are we,” a top White House aide told me Sunday.
    So for whatever Team Obama is certain of, in terms of the suspect’s ties to what had previously been a regionally focused terror group, they are much less certain why AQAP is suddenly trying to upstage “core” Al Qaeda, headed by Bin Laden, with a U.S. strike. Past attacks by AQAP had targeted U.S. interests such as our embassy in Sanaa - which Obama closed on Sunday


    Paradigm Intel:

    Horn one:
    Because of the huge number of drone attacks, some of them close to Binny,
    the al Qaeda is trying to refocus USA on Yemen to get some respite in Afpak.
    They hope this will turn USA attention from the unrelenting drone attacks
    and deaths of its Cadre.

    Horn Two:
    al Qaeda leader ship binny and Big Z have escaped Afpak and the unrelenting
    drone attacks. They have escaped to Yemen. And are directing International
    Ops under less USA Intel agencys monitoring in Yemen than in Afpak.
    Binny and big Z taking a vacation and have created and are directing Ops.

    We are watching key indicators that will point to one horn or the other.

    Killing the 7 CIA agents just ramps up the heat in Afpak by
    an order of several magnitudes.
    If al Qaeda was trying to switch the heat to Yemen, killing
    7 CIA agents contra indicated, but it may have been to juicy
    a target to resist. ( paradigm intel points to the Taliban C2
    in the dark about the CIA bombing till after the Fact. see below. G )

    If Binny and big Z are in Yemen killing the CIA agents,
    would fit that paradigm without difficulty.

    Further indications may be picked up in the official Terrorist
    response to the Killings.


    Death of 7 CIA agents, Backgrounder:

    If al Qaeda leadership isn't out of Afpak,
    they will be, killing the CIA will increase
    the heat on them several magnitudes.
    The next best developing area for the Terrorist
    is Yemen, Somalia geo.
    Taliban surprised at CIA bombing. 

    Solution: Light, small foot print, fully netted, for
    ID and pick up. Backed by HEAVY reactionary force
    off shore.


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